Daniel Racek
@dracek.bsky.social
Head of Data Science for Conflict Research CCEW @CISS
PhD in Statistics from LMU
PhD in Statistics from LMU
Pinned
Daniel Racek
@dracek.bsky.social
· Jul 31
Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A nonparametric smoothing approach
Abstract. Facilitated by advancements in conflict event databases, studies have moved towards predicting armed conflict and understanding its determinants
academic.oup.com
📢 NEW PAPER ALERT
Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A.
Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
[1/5]
Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A.
Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
[1/5]
Reposted by Daniel Racek
📣 Next week: CCEW Symposium (co-hosted with the German Federal Foreign Office)
“The Potential of Data, AI & Interdisciplinary Analysis in Situational Awareness and Decision Making.”
📅 17–18 Sep 2025:📍Berlin
The full program is available here: go.unibw.de/sym25en
“The Potential of Data, AI & Interdisciplinary Analysis in Situational Awareness and Decision Making.”
📅 17–18 Sep 2025:📍Berlin
The full program is available here: go.unibw.de/sym25en
Symposium on Crisis Early Warning
go.unibw.de
September 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
📣 Next week: CCEW Symposium (co-hosted with the German Federal Foreign Office)
“The Potential of Data, AI & Interdisciplinary Analysis in Situational Awareness and Decision Making.”
📅 17–18 Sep 2025:📍Berlin
The full program is available here: go.unibw.de/sym25en
“The Potential of Data, AI & Interdisciplinary Analysis in Situational Awareness and Decision Making.”
📅 17–18 Sep 2025:📍Berlin
The full program is available here: go.unibw.de/sym25en
Reposted by Daniel Racek
🚀 We're live!
We’re excited to officially introduce you to the new Bluesky account of the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW)!
We conduct quantitative conflict research and predictive analytics to deliver evidence-based early warning.
👉 Follow us for updates!
We’re excited to officially introduce you to the new Bluesky account of the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW)!
We conduct quantitative conflict research and predictive analytics to deliver evidence-based early warning.
👉 Follow us for updates!
September 11, 2025 at 12:00 PM
🚀 We're live!
We’re excited to officially introduce you to the new Bluesky account of the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW)!
We conduct quantitative conflict research and predictive analytics to deliver evidence-based early warning.
👉 Follow us for updates!
We’re excited to officially introduce you to the new Bluesky account of the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW)!
We conduct quantitative conflict research and predictive analytics to deliver evidence-based early warning.
👉 Follow us for updates!
Reposted by Daniel Racek
🆕 Capturing the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Effects of Armed Conflict: A Non-parametric Smoothing Approach
💡@dracek.bsky.social Thurner and Kauermann develop a statistical model to capture the spatio-temporal
diffusion effects of armed conflict (@lmumuenchen.bsky.social)
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
💡@dracek.bsky.social Thurner and Kauermann develop a statistical model to capture the spatio-temporal
diffusion effects of armed conflict (@lmumuenchen.bsky.social)
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A nonparametric smoothing approach
Abstract. Facilitated by advancements in conflict event databases, studies have moved towards predicting armed conflict and understanding its determinants
doi.org
August 6, 2025 at 3:13 PM
🆕 Capturing the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Effects of Armed Conflict: A Non-parametric Smoothing Approach
💡@dracek.bsky.social Thurner and Kauermann develop a statistical model to capture the spatio-temporal
diffusion effects of armed conflict (@lmumuenchen.bsky.social)
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
💡@dracek.bsky.social Thurner and Kauermann develop a statistical model to capture the spatio-temporal
diffusion effects of armed conflict (@lmumuenchen.bsky.social)
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
📢 NEW PAPER ALERT
Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A.
Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
[1/5]
Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A.
Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
[1/5]
Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A nonparametric smoothing approach
Abstract. Facilitated by advancements in conflict event databases, studies have moved towards predicting armed conflict and understanding its determinants
academic.oup.com
July 31, 2025 at 1:01 PM
📢 NEW PAPER ALERT
Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A.
Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
[1/5]
Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A.
Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
[1/5]
Reposted by Daniel Racek
🚨New Preprint (wish it were less timely)🚨
We map everyday behavioral patterns of authoritarians using smartphone data, providing an updated portrait of authoritarianism in the digital age. w/ Timo Koch, @clemensstachl.bsky.social, @dracek.bsky.social, Ramona Schoedel, et al
osf.io/preprints/ps...
We map everyday behavioral patterns of authoritarians using smartphone data, providing an updated portrait of authoritarianism in the digital age. w/ Timo Koch, @clemensstachl.bsky.social, @dracek.bsky.social, Ramona Schoedel, et al
osf.io/preprints/ps...
April 16, 2025 at 7:52 PM
🚨New Preprint (wish it were less timely)🚨
We map everyday behavioral patterns of authoritarians using smartphone data, providing an updated portrait of authoritarianism in the digital age. w/ Timo Koch, @clemensstachl.bsky.social, @dracek.bsky.social, Ramona Schoedel, et al
osf.io/preprints/ps...
We map everyday behavioral patterns of authoritarians using smartphone data, providing an updated portrait of authoritarianism in the digital age. w/ Timo Koch, @clemensstachl.bsky.social, @dracek.bsky.social, Ramona Schoedel, et al
osf.io/preprints/ps...