No one listens to me
@dpiepgrass.bsky.social
The schelling point no one visits. Aspiring rationalist EA LW. Evidence + Logic + Epistemics = Truth, Clearer Thinking, and 80000 Hours of failure
The "necessary" death rate from starvation has been reached to declare famine: "two adults or four children per 10,000 people per day".
For Gaza assuming population 2 million, that can be equivalently stated as 2,800 adults "or" 5,600 children "or" 4ish October7 attacks per week.
For Gaza assuming population 2 million, that can be equivalently stated as 2,800 adults "or" 5,600 children "or" 4ish October7 attacks per week.
August 28, 2025 at 12:25 PM
The "necessary" death rate from starvation has been reached to declare famine: "two adults or four children per 10,000 people per day".
For Gaza assuming population 2 million, that can be equivalently stated as 2,800 adults "or" 5,600 children "or" 4ish October7 attacks per week.
For Gaza assuming population 2 million, that can be equivalently stated as 2,800 adults "or" 5,600 children "or" 4ish October7 attacks per week.
It's not a misinformation or disinformation campaign, but Mercator is a misleading projection, and it's very dumb that Google has done nothing to avoid it (at ultra-high zoom levels) for over 20 years.
August 15, 2025 at 8:30 AM
It's not a misinformation or disinformation campaign, but Mercator is a misleading projection, and it's very dumb that Google has done nothing to avoid it (at ultra-high zoom levels) for over 20 years.
I can't bring myself to put a 👍 on a Professor Dave video, but he invited some scientists on his show to discuss Sabine Hossenfelder's claims, and I think they have at least as much right to be heard as the YouTube superstar herself.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oipI...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oipI...
August 12, 2025 at 3:48 AM
I can't bring myself to put a 👍 on a Professor Dave video, but he invited some scientists on his show to discuss Sabine Hossenfelder's claims, and I think they have at least as much right to be heard as the YouTube superstar herself.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oipI...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oipI...
This isn't a high concentration of nanoplastics, but assuming they are normal plastic particles, they should contain energy, and their small size should encourage evolution of microbes that can consume them.
July 11, 2025 at 4:08 PM
This isn't a high concentration of nanoplastics, but assuming they are normal plastic particles, they should contain energy, and their small size should encourage evolution of microbes that can consume them.
Trump's NOAA proposes eliminating all climate-related research work at NOAA, including the Mauna Loa observatory that has continuously monitored rising CO₂ levels for over 65 years. (as proposed in Project 2025) www.cnn.com/2025/07/01/c...
CO₂ levels continue their gentle exponential trend.
CO₂ levels continue their gentle exponential trend.
July 3, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Trump's NOAA proposes eliminating all climate-related research work at NOAA, including the Mauna Loa observatory that has continuously monitored rising CO₂ levels for over 65 years. (as proposed in Project 2025) www.cnn.com/2025/07/01/c...
CO₂ levels continue their gentle exponential trend.
CO₂ levels continue their gentle exponential trend.
Is anybody *really* surprised that The White House officially gave Trump a Sith Lord lightsaber? Someone should do a poll.
He may lie a lot, but that doesn't extend to the subtext, right? The subtext is always like "I'm bad. No, really. We're proper baddies." People know―right?
He may lie a lot, but that doesn't extend to the subtext, right? The subtext is always like "I'm bad. No, really. We're proper baddies." People know―right?
May 5, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Is anybody *really* surprised that The White House officially gave Trump a Sith Lord lightsaber? Someone should do a poll.
He may lie a lot, but that doesn't extend to the subtext, right? The subtext is always like "I'm bad. No, really. We're proper baddies." People know―right?
He may lie a lot, but that doesn't extend to the subtext, right? The subtext is always like "I'm bad. No, really. We're proper baddies." People know―right?
I think people aren't getting some very basic memos. For example: ourworldindata.org/much-better-...
April 6, 2025 at 7:38 PM
I think people aren't getting some very basic memos. For example: ourworldindata.org/much-better-...
You see this place? You have to live here.
People who unfairly tear down and attack others mysteriously find themselves with legions of followers. Why build taller, they think, when you can make others shorter? I'm always amazed how little people care about making Earth better.
People who unfairly tear down and attack others mysteriously find themselves with legions of followers. Why build taller, they think, when you can make others shorter? I'm always amazed how little people care about making Earth better.
April 6, 2025 at 7:33 PM
You see this place? You have to live here.
People who unfairly tear down and attack others mysteriously find themselves with legions of followers. Why build taller, they think, when you can make others shorter? I'm always amazed how little people care about making Earth better.
People who unfairly tear down and attack others mysteriously find themselves with legions of followers. Why build taller, they think, when you can make others shorter? I'm always amazed how little people care about making Earth better.
Oh and yeah, obviously an LLM develops language-agnostic concepts as the diagram shows, but less so in models with less "model scale" (I expect this depends more on compute than on model size, beyond some minimum. And training data is important.)
Anthropic's post: www.anthropic.com/news/tracing...
Anthropic's post: www.anthropic.com/news/tracing...
April 1, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Oh and yeah, obviously an LLM develops language-agnostic concepts as the diagram shows, but less so in models with less "model scale" (I expect this depends more on compute than on model size, beyond some minimum. And training data is important.)
Anthropic's post: www.anthropic.com/news/tracing...
Anthropic's post: www.anthropic.com/news/tracing...
LLMs play characters. That character could have emotion, but the LLM itself doesn't and its AI assistant character mostly doesn't either. So it makes sense that grammatical consistency can override the refusal signal if it's not specifically trained on the situation b/c it has more grammar training.
April 1, 2025 at 1:07 AM
LLMs play characters. That character could have emotion, but the LLM itself doesn't and its AI assistant character mostly doesn't either. So it makes sense that grammatical consistency can override the refusal signal if it's not specifically trained on the situation b/c it has more grammar training.
This jailbreak is another case where I think "hmm, not a likely human failure mode". Or is it? Imagine a person being excited to be the Helpful Assistant he was trained to be, so starts giving bomb instructions before remembering that he's not supposed to. But somehow I doubt this is the same thing.
April 1, 2025 at 1:01 AM
This jailbreak is another case where I think "hmm, not a likely human failure mode". Or is it? Imagine a person being excited to be the Helpful Assistant he was trained to be, so starts giving bomb instructions before remembering that he's not supposed to. But somehow I doubt this is the same thing.
This part suggests there could be a fundamental difference, as I'm pretty sure I'm not prone to this failure mode: I can & do separately detect uncertainty in each separate detail of everything I say.
But you see that Trump guy? If he has any uncertainty sense, he spent his whole life ignoring it.
But you see that Trump guy? If he has any uncertainty sense, he spent his whole life ignoring it.
April 1, 2025 at 12:45 AM
This part suggests there could be a fundamental difference, as I'm pretty sure I'm not prone to this failure mode: I can & do separately detect uncertainty in each separate detail of everything I say.
But you see that Trump guy? If he has any uncertainty sense, he spent his whole life ignoring it.
But you see that Trump guy? If he has any uncertainty sense, he spent his whole life ignoring it.
I've been suspecting that LLMs might be unable to tell when they are hallucinating―lacking an internal sense of uncertainty.
This part is consistent with that hypothesis. I wonder though: are humans the same way? Do some people make shit up so much because they never got anti-bullshit training? 🤔
This part is consistent with that hypothesis. I wonder though: are humans the same way? Do some people make shit up so much because they never got anti-bullshit training? 🤔
April 1, 2025 at 12:25 AM
I've been suspecting that LLMs might be unable to tell when they are hallucinating―lacking an internal sense of uncertainty.
This part is consistent with that hypothesis. I wonder though: are humans the same way? Do some people make shit up so much because they never got anti-bullshit training? 🤔
This part is consistent with that hypothesis. I wonder though: are humans the same way? Do some people make shit up so much because they never got anti-bullshit training? 🤔
Me, I tend to do mental addition in the forward direction, e.g. for 491 + 248, I go "6...13...so 73...9...739."
Humans & transformers can both devote many "parameters" to the problem, but a xformer has the extra luxury of a large working memory & perfect internal calculations, so it can get exotic.
Humans & transformers can both devote many "parameters" to the problem, but a xformer has the extra luxury of a large working memory & perfect internal calculations, so it can get exotic.
April 1, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Me, I tend to do mental addition in the forward direction, e.g. for 491 + 248, I go "6...13...so 73...9...739."
Humans & transformers can both devote many "parameters" to the problem, but a xformer has the extra luxury of a large working memory & perfect internal calculations, so it can get exotic.
Humans & transformers can both devote many "parameters" to the problem, but a xformer has the extra luxury of a large working memory & perfect internal calculations, so it can get exotic.
...what?!
I would've thought the Claude staff were smarter than that. Seems pretty obvious that Claude would be, to the extent its architecture + gradient descent allows, planning out both lines at once before writing the first word ("He"). Transformers attracted billions of $ for a reason. 🤷♂️
I would've thought the Claude staff were smarter than that. Seems pretty obvious that Claude would be, to the extent its architecture + gradient descent allows, planning out both lines at once before writing the first word ("He"). Transformers attracted billions of $ for a reason. 🤷♂️
March 31, 2025 at 11:57 PM
...what?!
I would've thought the Claude staff were smarter than that. Seems pretty obvious that Claude would be, to the extent its architecture + gradient descent allows, planning out both lines at once before writing the first word ("He"). Transformers attracted billions of $ for a reason. 🤷♂️
I would've thought the Claude staff were smarter than that. Seems pretty obvious that Claude would be, to the extent its architecture + gradient descent allows, planning out both lines at once before writing the first word ("He"). Transformers attracted billions of $ for a reason. 🤷♂️
March 31, 2025 at 4:18 AM
In private, the subtext becomes the text. "Of course" they thought this way, but the leak gives welcome clarity. Also obvious that the USA benefits directly and indirectly from peaceful Suez Canal / Red Sea trade, but I'm not sure how much.
March 25, 2025 at 3:32 AM
In private, the subtext becomes the text. "Of course" they thought this way, but the leak gives welcome clarity. Also obvious that the USA benefits directly and indirectly from peaceful Suez Canal / Red Sea trade, but I'm not sure how much.
US Security Agencies Halt Coordinated Effort to Counter Russian Sabotage and Cyberattacks 😢 🤷♂️
March 24, 2025 at 11:44 PM
US Security Agencies Halt Coordinated Effort to Counter Russian Sabotage and Cyberattacks 😢 🤷♂️
Meanwhile, Musk is naturally concerned about his "peaceful company" and "the Left" rather than the cars' owners.
March 21, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Meanwhile, Musk is naturally concerned about his "peaceful company" and "the Left" rather than the cars' owners.
Lots of Sabine Hossenfelder videos can be summed up as
March 18, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Lots of Sabine Hossenfelder videos can be summed up as
Tesla stock surged from ~$250 before the election to about $350 (before surging again to $479). As it hit $350, I thought it might have something to do with savvy investors seeing the potential for government corruption giving an advantage to Musk. That potential remains, yet the stock tanked...why?
March 11, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Tesla stock surged from ~$250 before the election to about $350 (before surging again to $479). As it hit $350, I thought it might have something to do with savvy investors seeing the potential for government corruption giving an advantage to Musk. That potential remains, yet the stock tanked...why?
Well, Trump definitely cares about one of these.
I love the bit where he talks about his "very difficult" cognitive test.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRNx...
I love the bit where he talks about his "very difficult" cognitive test.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRNx...
March 9, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Well, Trump definitely cares about one of these.
I love the bit where he talks about his "very difficult" cognitive test.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRNx...
I love the bit where he talks about his "very difficult" cognitive test.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRNx...
Of course, when the new president's economic policy is clearly bad in both the short and long terms, it can hurt the stock market at the beginning of a presidential term.
March 6, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Of course, when the new president's economic policy is clearly bad in both the short and long terms, it can hurt the stock market at the beginning of a presidential term.
I hear the remaining staff of 538 are being laid off, so I guess this top Google chart will be disappearing. By coincidence, Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) says he's launching a Trump approval ratings dashboard tomorrow.
March 5, 2025 at 11:35 PM
I hear the remaining staff of 538 are being laid off, so I guess this top Google chart will be disappearing. By coincidence, Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) says he's launching a Trump approval ratings dashboard tomorrow.
Keep in mind that on the 3rd anniversary of Russia's invasion, 3 days ago, the Trump Administration joined Russia, Iran, North Korea, Iran and other authoritarian countries in voting against a resolution condemning the invasion. Israel joined too for some reason.
Russian propaganda may be winning.
Russian propaganda may be winning.
February 27, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Keep in mind that on the 3rd anniversary of Russia's invasion, 3 days ago, the Trump Administration joined Russia, Iran, North Korea, Iran and other authoritarian countries in voting against a resolution condemning the invasion. Israel joined too for some reason.
Russian propaganda may be winning.
Russian propaganda may be winning.