dnevBaseball
@dnevbaseball.bsky.social
Baseball fan who also likes numbers. ⚾📊
Check out my Swing Decision metrics apps:
(MLB) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions/
(Winter Leagues) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions_Winter/
https://medium.com/@dnevBaseball
Check out my Swing Decision metrics apps:
(MLB) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions/
(Winter Leagues) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions_Winter/
https://medium.com/@dnevBaseball
Willson Contreras makes up for below average Connect+ with adequate swing decisions and excellent Impact+. The drop in walk rate in 2025 looks to be due to pitchers throwing in the zone to him more often.
December 22, 2025 at 4:04 AM
Willson Contreras makes up for below average Connect+ with adequate swing decisions and excellent Impact+. The drop in walk rate in 2025 looks to be due to pitchers throwing in the zone to him more often.
Jhonkensy Noel's 2025 was rough, but not sure I would give up on him so soon after the power he showed in 2024.
December 18, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Jhonkensy Noel's 2025 was rough, but not sure I would give up on him so soon after the power he showed in 2024.
Maikel Garcia's offensive 2025 breakout came due to increasing his already excellent contact rate, slightly increasing his contact quality, and maintaining his good swing decisions (mainly by not swinging a lot). Also, an increased Pull Air% also helps!
December 15, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Maikel Garcia's offensive 2025 breakout came due to increasing his already excellent contact rate, slightly increasing his contact quality, and maintaining his good swing decisions (mainly by not swinging a lot). Also, an increased Pull Air% also helps!
Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle are probably most affected in Baltimore by the Alonso signing.
Mayo needs to improve his contact if he's not going to hit for more power.
Mountcastle's contact rate really stepped back in 2025, and he saw a dip in BB% and K%.
Mayo needs to improve his contact if he's not going to hit for more power.
Mountcastle's contact rate really stepped back in 2025, and he saw a dip in BB% and K%.
December 15, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle are probably most affected in Baltimore by the Alonso signing.
Mayo needs to improve his contact if he's not going to hit for more power.
Mountcastle's contact rate really stepped back in 2025, and he saw a dip in BB% and K%.
Mayo needs to improve his contact if he's not going to hit for more power.
Mountcastle's contact rate really stepped back in 2025, and he saw a dip in BB% and K%.
Last is the Impact+ stability curve. Impact+ is reliable after ~130 balls in play.
December 2, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Last is the Impact+ stability curve. Impact+ is reliable after ~130 balls in play.
Ran the stability analysis on Connect+ and found it to be reliable in about 120 swings. At about 2 swings per plate appearance (~4 pitches per average PA and a 50% swing rate), the metric stabilizes in 60 PAs. This is slightly less than SDr, which was ~100 PAs.
December 2, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Ran the stability analysis on Connect+ and found it to be reliable in about 120 swings. At about 2 swings per plate appearance (~4 pitches per average PA and a 50% swing rate), the metric stabilizes in 60 PAs. This is slightly less than SDr, which was ~100 PAs.
Finally got around to making a stability curve for Swing Decision Runs! SDr becomes stable at around 400 pitches.
medium.com/@dnevBasebal...
medium.com/@dnevBasebal...
November 30, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Finally got around to making a stability curve for Swing Decision Runs! SDr becomes stable at around 400 pitches.
medium.com/@dnevBasebal...
medium.com/@dnevBasebal...
Brandon Nimmo's 2025 looked similar to 2024. A drop in walk rate from 11.6% to 7.7% was almost entirely due to an sharp increase in Zone%. I'll be interested to see if he sees a similar Zone% in Texas next year.
November 25, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Brandon Nimmo's 2025 looked similar to 2024. A drop in walk rate from 11.6% to 7.7% was almost entirely due to an sharp increase in Zone%. I'll be interested to see if he sees a similar Zone% in Texas next year.
Marcus Semien's contact ability took a step back in 2025, and it showed in his K% which jumped from 14.6% to 17.4%.
November 25, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Marcus Semien's contact ability took a step back in 2025, and it showed in his K% which jumped from 14.6% to 17.4%.
Yainer has the contact skills and contact quality to be an impact bat, but the swing decisions really weigh him down. A hitter this good at making contact doesn't need to swinging so much.
November 23, 2025 at 4:21 AM
Yainer has the contact skills and contact quality to be an impact bat, but the swing decisions really weigh him down. A hitter this good at making contact doesn't need to swinging so much.
Naylor mixes elite contact with above average contact quality. His contact skills allow him to post below average K-rates even with suboptimal swing decisions.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
November 18, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Naylor mixes elite contact with above average contact quality. His contact skills allow him to post below average K-rates even with suboptimal swing decisions.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
Ward's decrease in swing decision runs was due to an even more passive approach at the plate than he already had. The increased takes were essentially all on pitches in the zone.
November 11, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Ward's decrease in swing decision runs was due to an even more passive approach at the plate than he already had. The increased takes were essentially all on pitches in the zone.
Which of these potential Angels outfielders do you prefer as a trade target, Jo Adell or Taylor Ward?
November 10, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Which of these potential Angels outfielders do you prefer as a trade target, Jo Adell or Taylor Ward?
Not much change in plate discipline / hitting approach for the Dodgers or Blue Jays during the World Series compared to the regular season. Chase rates up a bit (to be expected against better pitching). Blue Jays still good at making contact outside the strike zone.
November 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Not much change in plate discipline / hitting approach for the Dodgers or Blue Jays during the World Series compared to the regular season. Chase rates up a bit (to be expected against better pitching). Blue Jays still good at making contact outside the strike zone.
These are totals, so the extra pitches help, but the Blue Jays have been far and away the best at making contact in the playoffs.
October 30, 2025 at 9:12 PM
These are totals, so the extra pitches help, but the Blue Jays have been far and away the best at making contact in the playoffs.
2025 Swing Decision Runs leaders:
September 30, 2025 at 7:25 PM
2025 Swing Decision Runs leaders:
Andrew Benintendi's been gradually increasing his power back up to 2019/2021 levels, which had him as a slightly above average hitter in 2025 (wRC+ of 102).
September 24, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Andrew Benintendi's been gradually increasing his power back up to 2019/2021 levels, which had him as a slightly above average hitter in 2025 (wRC+ of 102).
Biggest change in the hitting profile for Ozzie Albies this year is that his swing decisions moved from above average to below average. He didn't swing as much this year, but the extra takes were mostly on pitches in the zone.
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
September 23, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Biggest change in the hitting profile for Ozzie Albies this year is that his swing decisions moved from above average to below average. He didn't swing as much this year, but the extra takes were mostly on pitches in the zone.
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
I don't think Yordan's start to the season was as bad as his statline made it look. It's too bad he sprained his ankle because it looks like he was back to normal after coming back from the hand injury.
September 20, 2025 at 1:44 AM
I don't think Yordan's start to the season was as bad as his statline made it look. It's too bad he sprained his ankle because it looks like he was back to normal after coming back from the hand injury.
Bo Bichette has bounced back in his walk year after a 2024 that was marred by injuries. Improved contact has also pushed his K% to a career low 14.5% and fewer swings has his BB% at 6.4% (highest since rookie year).
September 17, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Bo Bichette has bounced back in his walk year after a 2024 that was marred by injuries. Improved contact has also pushed his K% to a career low 14.5% and fewer swings has his BB% at 6.4% (highest since rookie year).
It looks like his knee injury (which reportedly occurred around the end of the May) may have had an impact on contact quality. Early in the season he traded some contact to hit for more power, but the power evaporated after the injury.
September 16, 2025 at 5:56 PM
It looks like his knee injury (which reportedly occurred around the end of the May) may have had an impact on contact quality. Early in the season he traded some contact to hit for more power, but the power evaporated after the injury.
Masyn Winn showed improved swing decisions in 2025 by cutting down his chase rate. BB% stayed the same, though, likely due to an increase in Zone%.
September 16, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Masyn Winn showed improved swing decisions in 2025 by cutting down his chase rate. BB% stayed the same, though, likely due to an increase in Zone%.
Reading this gave me the idea of plotting swing decision runs vs. Swing%. Since SDr is set up to be count dependent, I thought hitters like Harper that are more aggressive earlier in counts would end up with higher SDr than expected for the their Swing%.
September 12, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Reading this gave me the idea of plotting swing decision runs vs. Swing%. Since SDr is set up to be count dependent, I thought hitters like Harper that are more aggressive earlier in counts would end up with higher SDr than expected for the their Swing%.
I think his contact profile helps make this work as well. Too much contact with this many swings and you're putting too many suboptimal pitches in play. Even better for Harper, his Zone Contact% is around league average while Chase Contact% is a decent bit below league average.
September 11, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I think his contact profile helps make this work as well. Too much contact with this many swings and you're putting too many suboptimal pitches in play. Even better for Harper, his Zone Contact% is around league average while Chase Contact% is a decent bit below league average.
Looks like Sean Murphy sold out for more power and less contact in 2025 compared to 2024. His swing decisions were much better as well.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.
September 8, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Looks like Sean Murphy sold out for more power and less contact in 2025 compared to 2024. His swing decisions were much better as well.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.