dnevBaseball
@dnevbaseball.bsky.social
Baseball fan who also likes numbers. ⚾📊
Check out my Swing Decision metrics apps:
(MLB) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions/
(Winter Leagues) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions_Winter/
https://medium.com/@dnevBaseball
Check out my Swing Decision metrics apps:
(MLB) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions/
(Winter Leagues) https://dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisions_Winter/
https://medium.com/@dnevBaseball
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dnevBaseball
@dnevbaseball.bsky.social
· Jan 15
dnevBaseball – Medium
Read writing from dnevBaseball on Medium. Every day, dnevBaseball and thousands of other voices read, write, and share important stories on Medium.
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I created a metric called Swing Decision Runs (SDr) to measure the run value of a swing decision above average for each pitch.
An explanation of how the metric is calculated can be found here:
medium.com/@dnevBaseball
An explanation of how the metric is calculated can be found here:
medium.com/@dnevBaseball
Brandon Nimmo's 2025 looked similar to 2024. A drop in walk rate from 11.6% to 7.7% was almost entirely due to an sharp increase in Zone%. I'll be interested to see if he sees a similar Zone% in Texas next year.
November 25, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Brandon Nimmo's 2025 looked similar to 2024. A drop in walk rate from 11.6% to 7.7% was almost entirely due to an sharp increase in Zone%. I'll be interested to see if he sees a similar Zone% in Texas next year.
Marcus Semien's contact ability took a step back in 2025, and it showed in his K% which jumped from 14.6% to 17.4%.
November 25, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Marcus Semien's contact ability took a step back in 2025, and it showed in his K% which jumped from 14.6% to 17.4%.
Yainer has the contact skills and contact quality to be an impact bat, but the swing decisions really weigh him down. A hitter this good at making contact doesn't need to swinging so much.
November 23, 2025 at 4:21 AM
Yainer has the contact skills and contact quality to be an impact bat, but the swing decisions really weigh him down. A hitter this good at making contact doesn't need to swinging so much.
Naylor mixes elite contact with above average contact quality. His contact skills allow him to post below average K-rates even with suboptimal swing decisions.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
November 18, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Naylor mixes elite contact with above average contact quality. His contact skills allow him to post below average K-rates even with suboptimal swing decisions.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
Need to look further, but I'd think his Impact+ is well above the expected value for hitters with his contact ability.
Which of these potential Angels outfielders do you prefer as a trade target, Jo Adell or Taylor Ward?
November 10, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Which of these potential Angels outfielders do you prefer as a trade target, Jo Adell or Taylor Ward?
Created a new Shiny app with Arizona Fall League plate discipline stats. I hope to keep adding to this with other winter leagues.
dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisi...
dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisi...
AFL Plate Discipline
dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io
November 8, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Created a new Shiny app with Arizona Fall League plate discipline stats. I hope to keep adding to this with other winter leagues.
dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisi...
dnev-baseball.shinyapps.io/Swing_Decisi...
Not much change in plate discipline / hitting approach for the Dodgers or Blue Jays during the World Series compared to the regular season. Chase rates up a bit (to be expected against better pitching). Blue Jays still good at making contact outside the strike zone.
November 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Not much change in plate discipline / hitting approach for the Dodgers or Blue Jays during the World Series compared to the regular season. Chase rates up a bit (to be expected against better pitching). Blue Jays still good at making contact outside the strike zone.
These are totals, so the extra pitches help, but the Blue Jays have been far and away the best at making contact in the playoffs.
October 30, 2025 at 9:12 PM
These are totals, so the extra pitches help, but the Blue Jays have been far and away the best at making contact in the playoffs.
2025 Swing Decision Runs leaders:
September 30, 2025 at 7:25 PM
2025 Swing Decision Runs leaders:
There was almost a repeat from 2024 to 2025 for the player with the highest Swing Decision Runs per pitch (min 1000 pitches). The top hitter in 2024 finished second this year.
Lowest SDr was a repeat.
Anyone want to take a guess who the hitters are? Bonus points if you get 2025's leader!
Lowest SDr was a repeat.
Anyone want to take a guess who the hitters are? Bonus points if you get 2025's leader!
September 29, 2025 at 8:33 PM
There was almost a repeat from 2024 to 2025 for the player with the highest Swing Decision Runs per pitch (min 1000 pitches). The top hitter in 2024 finished second this year.
Lowest SDr was a repeat.
Anyone want to take a guess who the hitters are? Bonus points if you get 2025's leader!
Lowest SDr was a repeat.
Anyone want to take a guess who the hitters are? Bonus points if you get 2025's leader!
Andrew Benintendi's been gradually increasing his power back up to 2019/2021 levels, which had him as a slightly above average hitter in 2025 (wRC+ of 102).
September 24, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Andrew Benintendi's been gradually increasing his power back up to 2019/2021 levels, which had him as a slightly above average hitter in 2025 (wRC+ of 102).
Biggest change in the hitting profile for Ozzie Albies this year is that his swing decisions moved from above average to below average. He didn't swing as much this year, but the extra takes were mostly on pitches in the zone.
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
September 23, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Biggest change in the hitting profile for Ozzie Albies this year is that his swing decisions moved from above average to below average. He didn't swing as much this year, but the extra takes were mostly on pitches in the zone.
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
Zone Swing%: 82.6% (2024) -> 78.0% (2025)
Chase%: 33.6% -> 33.4%
I don't think Yordan's start to the season was as bad as his statline made it look. It's too bad he sprained his ankle because it looks like he was back to normal after coming back from the hand injury.
September 20, 2025 at 1:44 AM
I don't think Yordan's start to the season was as bad as his statline made it look. It's too bad he sprained his ankle because it looks like he was back to normal after coming back from the hand injury.
Bo Bichette has bounced back in his walk year after a 2024 that was marred by injuries. Improved contact has also pushed his K% to a career low 14.5% and fewer swings has his BB% at 6.4% (highest since rookie year).
September 17, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Bo Bichette has bounced back in his walk year after a 2024 that was marred by injuries. Improved contact has also pushed his K% to a career low 14.5% and fewer swings has his BB% at 6.4% (highest since rookie year).
Masyn Winn showed improved swing decisions in 2025 by cutting down his chase rate. BB% stayed the same, though, likely due to an increase in Zone%.
September 16, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Masyn Winn showed improved swing decisions in 2025 by cutting down his chase rate. BB% stayed the same, though, likely due to an increase in Zone%.
Reading this gave me the idea of plotting swing decision runs vs. Swing%. Since SDr is set up to be count dependent, I thought hitters like Harper that are more aggressive earlier in counts would end up with higher SDr than expected for the their Swing%.
September 12, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Reading this gave me the idea of plotting swing decision runs vs. Swing%. Since SDr is set up to be count dependent, I thought hitters like Harper that are more aggressive earlier in counts would end up with higher SDr than expected for the their Swing%.
Looks like Sean Murphy sold out for more power and less contact in 2025 compared to 2024. His swing decisions were much better as well.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.
September 8, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Looks like Sean Murphy sold out for more power and less contact in 2025 compared to 2024. His swing decisions were much better as well.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.
The results were mixed as his ISO improved to .210, but a K rate was up to a career high 31.2%.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s 2025 is finished with a torn ACL. His wRC+ dropped from 108 in 2024 to 94 in 2025 with a drop in BABIP from .313 to .254 seeming to be the main culprit in the decrease. It may be some bad luck, but a falling Impact+ also doesn't help.
September 7, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s 2025 is finished with a torn ACL. His wRC+ dropped from 108 in 2024 to 94 in 2025 with a drop in BABIP from .313 to .254 seeming to be the main culprit in the decrease. It may be some bad luck, but a falling Impact+ also doesn't help.
If he doesn't make it back until the playoffs, Roman Anthony's first regular season was a big success. Not too worried with the below average contact when his swing decisions and Impact+ is so good.
September 6, 2025 at 2:02 AM
If he doesn't make it back until the playoffs, Roman Anthony's first regular season was a big success. Not too worried with the below average contact when his swing decisions and Impact+ is so good.
End of season summary on Taylor Walls after season ending surgery:
Not much change from 2024, good swing decisions but not enough power. Despite maintaining a good SDR, his walk rate decreased (12.3% -> 8.2%) due to a 56.8 Zone%, which trails only Chandler Simpson and Dane Myers (min 300 PAs).
Not much change from 2024, good swing decisions but not enough power. Despite maintaining a good SDR, his walk rate decreased (12.3% -> 8.2%) due to a 56.8 Zone%, which trails only Chandler Simpson and Dane Myers (min 300 PAs).
September 5, 2025 at 8:41 PM
End of season summary on Taylor Walls after season ending surgery:
Not much change from 2024, good swing decisions but not enough power. Despite maintaining a good SDR, his walk rate decreased (12.3% -> 8.2%) due to a 56.8 Zone%, which trails only Chandler Simpson and Dane Myers (min 300 PAs).
Not much change from 2024, good swing decisions but not enough power. Despite maintaining a good SDR, his walk rate decreased (12.3% -> 8.2%) due to a 56.8 Zone%, which trails only Chandler Simpson and Dane Myers (min 300 PAs).
What happened to Jhonkensy Noel's contact quality earlier this year (an increase from 35% GB rate to 53% might have something do with it)? The low contact, swing-at-everything approach can work, but it relies on hard contact when you actually connect.
September 3, 2025 at 4:25 PM
What happened to Jhonkensy Noel's contact quality earlier this year (an increase from 35% GB rate to 53% might have something do with it)? The low contact, swing-at-everything approach can work, but it relies on hard contact when you actually connect.
A small sample of 95 pitches, but Owen Caissie struggled to make contact in his first stint in the majors. Swing decisions and contact quality were promising though.
September 2, 2025 at 2:46 AM
A small sample of 95 pitches, but Owen Caissie struggled to make contact in his first stint in the majors. Swing decisions and contact quality were promising though.
Ramon Laureano has improved in all facets of hitting from 2024 to 2025. The big difference in his approach seems to be a return to not swinging as much (52.3% Swing% in 2024, 46.8% in 2025).
August 27, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Ramon Laureano has improved in all facets of hitting from 2024 to 2025. The big difference in his approach seems to be a return to not swinging as much (52.3% Swing% in 2024, 46.8% in 2025).
Lenyn Sosa's managed to improve his Chase% post ASB by swinging less while also improving on his already above average contact quality/ability.
August 21, 2025 at 4:32 AM
Lenyn Sosa's managed to improve his Chase% post ASB by swinging less while also improving on his already above average contact quality/ability.
I've been wondering if MIL's low swing rate (tied with CIN for lowest) has anything to do with their offensive success, and if teams swing too much in general. I think this approach works well for teams like MIL with good contact and without top end power. Anyone have any thoughts?
August 19, 2025 at 4:24 PM
I've been wondering if MIL's low swing rate (tied with CIN for lowest) has anything to do with their offensive success, and if teams swing too much in general. I think this approach works well for teams like MIL with good contact and without top end power. Anyone have any thoughts?