sixmonthlag.com/2026/01/cumu...

Of the output produced in the US since 1790, over half was produced this century.

When the six month lag figure appears suspect, compare it to the comparably accurate 5 and 7 month figures. Due to a high value for PCE prices in Feb 2025, the 6 month figure came in at 2.5%. But the 5 and 7 month figures were 2.8 and 2.9% respectively. sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/six-...

Inflation appears to have plateaued at 3.0%, above the Fed's 2.0% target.

sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/core...

Six month inflation, as measured by core PCE, crossed the 3% threshold.

sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core...

Inflation trending upwards.

sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core...

Six month percentages cut through the noise best, have lowest errors when predicting one year centered inflation.

Economic dashboard. What Trump inherited and what happened since. Through Apr 2025.

sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/249/

A 6 month perspective on last month's report suggests steady progress towards the Fed's 2% target.

Note how the 6 month annualized lag, represented by the thin green line, fits centered 1 year inflation better than one year lagged inflation.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/core...

The six month lag is a better guide to centered 1 year inflation than either the 3 month or the conventionally reported 12 month lag. Thin green line fits thick blue line best. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/core...

Core PCE inflation as of Dec 2024 was released this morning. It shows steady progress towards the Fed's long run inflation goal. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/core...

Dec 20, 2024 core PCE inflation release, Part II. Improved graph reports realtime data. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/revi...

Update core PCE inflation graph through November, with data released on Dec 20, 2024. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/revi...

Comparing 3, 6 and 12 month *lagged* inflation with 13 month *centered* inflation. 6 month is best.

sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/one-...

Here are 2 examples of a proper annualization formula that takes compounding into account.

Geometrically annualized six month lagged inflation is a better guide to current inflation than the typically reported one year percentage change.

sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/esti...

Inaugural post.

sixmonthlag.com/2024/12/hell...