David Howe
@dkhowe.bsky.social
Inflation, finance, economics
sixmonthlag.com
sixmonthlag.com
sixmonthlag.com/2026/01/cumu...
Of the output produced in the US since 1790, over half was produced this century.
Of the output produced in the US since 1790, over half was produced this century.
January 12, 2026 at 6:43 PM
sixmonthlag.com/2026/01/cumu...
Of the output produced in the US since 1790, over half was produced this century.
Of the output produced in the US since 1790, over half was produced this century.
Reposted by David Howe
Amicus brief: Allowing removal of Cook while challenge to her removal is pending wd threaten independence & erode public confidence in the Fed. We urge SCOTUS to deny govt’s request for a stay. Bernanke, Yellen, Greenspan, Paulson, Summers, Geithner, Rubin, Lew prod-i.a.dj.com/public/resou...
prod-i.a.dj.com
September 25, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Amicus brief: Allowing removal of Cook while challenge to her removal is pending wd threaten independence & erode public confidence in the Fed. We urge SCOTUS to deny govt’s request for a stay. Bernanke, Yellen, Greenspan, Paulson, Summers, Geithner, Rubin, Lew prod-i.a.dj.com/public/resou...
When the six month lag figure appears suspect, compare it to the comparably accurate 5 and 7 month figures. Due to a high value for PCE prices in Feb 2025, the 6 month figure came in at 2.5%. But the 5 and 7 month figures were 2.8 and 2.9% respectively. sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/six-...
September 28, 2025 at 9:40 PM
When the six month lag figure appears suspect, compare it to the comparably accurate 5 and 7 month figures. Due to a high value for PCE prices in Feb 2025, the 6 month figure came in at 2.5%. But the 5 and 7 month figures were 2.8 and 2.9% respectively. sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/six-...
Inflation appears to have plateaued at 3.0%, above the Fed's 2.0% target.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/core...
September 1, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Inflation appears to have plateaued at 3.0%, above the Fed's 2.0% target.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/core...
Six month inflation, as measured by core PCE, crossed the 3% threshold.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core...
July 31, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Six month inflation, as measured by core PCE, crossed the 3% threshold.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core...
July 2, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Economic dashboard. What Trump inherited and what happened since. Through Apr 2025.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/249/
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/249/
May 21, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Economic dashboard. What Trump inherited and what happened since. Through Apr 2025.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/249/
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/249/
Core PCE prices up 3.0% on an annualized six month basis. The Fed has some tough decisions ahead of them.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/core...
Core PCE inflation ticked upwards in February and March – Six Month LagBlueskyMastodonSubstackTwitter
sixmonthlag.com
May 1, 2025 at 5:23 AM
Core PCE prices up 3.0% on an annualized six month basis. The Fed has some tough decisions ahead of them.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/core...
New post. Taking moving averages of one month annual inflation is basically the same as the corresponding percentage change. Percentage changes in adjoining 3 or 4 month averages underperform.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/04/two-...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/04/two-...
Two Alternatives To the Six Month Percentage Change in Prices Have Inferior Performance – Six Month LagBlueskyMastodonSubstackTwitter
sixmonthlag.com
April 28, 2025 at 11:23 PM
New post. Taking moving averages of one month annual inflation is basically the same as the corresponding percentage change. Percentage changes in adjoining 3 or 4 month averages underperform.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/04/two-...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/04/two-...
Inflation heated up in January, even if we ignore the one month column.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/02/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/02/core...
February 12, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Inflation heated up in January, even if we ignore the one month column.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/02/core...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/02/core...
Core PCE inflation as of Dec 2024 was released this morning. It shows steady progress towards the Fed's long run inflation goal. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/core...
January 31, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Core PCE inflation as of Dec 2024 was released this morning. It shows steady progress towards the Fed's long run inflation goal. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/core...
Dec 20, 2024 core PCE inflation release, Part II. Improved graph reports realtime data. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/revi...
January 27, 2025 at 4:11 AM
Dec 20, 2024 core PCE inflation release, Part II. Improved graph reports realtime data. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/revi...
Update core PCE inflation graph through November, with data released on Dec 20, 2024. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/revi...
January 23, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Update core PCE inflation graph through November, with data released on Dec 20, 2024. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/revi...
Comparing 3, 6 and 12 month *lagged* inflation with 13 month *centered* inflation. 6 month is best.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/one-...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/one-...
January 21, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Comparing 3, 6 and 12 month *lagged* inflation with 13 month *centered* inflation. 6 month is best.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/one-...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/one-...
Here are 2 examples of a proper annualization formula that takes compounding into account.
January 17, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Here are 2 examples of a proper annualization formula that takes compounding into account.
Annualization makes short term percentage changes directly comparable to one year percentage changes. There are various methods of doing this, and some are better.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/annu...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/annu...
Annualization – Six Month LagBlueskyMastodonSubstackTwitter
sixmonthlag.com
January 17, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Annualization makes short term percentage changes directly comparable to one year percentage changes. There are various methods of doing this, and some are better.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/annu...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/annu...
Geometrically annualized six month lagged inflation is a better guide to current inflation than the typically reported one year percentage change.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/esti...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/esti...
January 17, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Geometrically annualized six month lagged inflation is a better guide to current inflation than the typically reported one year percentage change.
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/esti...
sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/esti...
January 17, 2025 at 4:08 AM