Tatarstan is close to the national TFR average on 1.44. The fertility rate in Buryatia has collapsed to 1.52 from 1.95 in 2020. In Moscow TFR is 1.46, in Saint Petersburg 1.26. In Bashkiria/Bashkortostan TFR is below the national average at just 1.36. In Mordovia TFR just 0.99.

Many homes are vacant there and many elderly live alone. Busan has the lowest fertility rate in South Korea itself the country with the worlds lowest fertility rate. Thank you to @chiragmahe for the link. Source: www.ft.com/content/1a89...

The US, UK, & Australia have large Gen Z cohorts so there is still hope for a significant rebound in total births even if TFR only gets back to 1.7-1.8. Even if Europe were to also rise to this level the corresponding rise in births would be far less significant.

Groups that controlled social media proliferation (Haredi in Israel, Amish/Mennonites etc in the U.S., Laestadians in Finland) still have healthy TFR. Central Asia only region with good TFR that did not resist smartphone proliferation to my knowledge.

Musk says he wants to boost birthrates but supercharges social media which helps destroy it. Interesting.

So in the years ahead the U.S. will continue to see 500K-1.1 million Mexican immigrants annually (lower figure if border+policy tightened). The number of annual Indian immigrants rising from. ~150,000 to ~250,000 over the next four years (based on Trump policy pronouncements).

Demographically levels from the Cuba & El Salvador will ⬇️ over time as well as both have relatively small populations & Cuba has negative population growth & is aging rapidly already. El Salvador may end up completely hollowed out like Bulgaria or Moldova even at these levels.

Would not be surprised if the European Union ends up having a hard TFR floor of 1.40-1.43. 2023 EU births totaled 3,702,191. This number could fall below 3.5M by 2030. Eastern European & immigrant fertility plummeting while even Scandinavian TFR (long healthy) now all sub 1.5.