Demographics Now & Then
@demographicsnandt.bsky.social
In 2024 the region of Russia with the highest fertility rate was Chechnya (just 1% of Russia’s population) at 2.71. The lowest was Leningrad Oblast at 0.89. Tuva (population sub 400,000) was the only administrative area besides Chechnya above replacement. fedpress.ru/article/3365231
March 10, 2025 at 1:25 PM
In 2024 the region of Russia with the highest fertility rate was Chechnya (just 1% of Russia’s population) at 2.71. The lowest was Leningrad Oblast at 0.89. Tuva (population sub 400,000) was the only administrative area besides Chechnya above replacement. fedpress.ru/article/3365231
Busan, South Korea is a living example of a city with extinction level fertility (according to even the Korean government). It is aging far faster than Seoul, young people are fleeing, & it is near the highest on the extinction risk index of Korea (for ref Sejong a TFR leader).
February 9, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Busan, South Korea is a living example of a city with extinction level fertility (according to even the Korean government). It is aging far faster than Seoul, young people are fleeing, & it is near the highest on the extinction risk index of Korea (for ref Sejong a TFR leader).
The disappearance of children in East Asia is nothing short of astonishing. After hitting a peak above 425 million in the late 1970s the number of children has plummeted to only around 250 million today & will likely fall below 100 million below 2070. Our world is changing.
February 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
The disappearance of children in East Asia is nothing short of astonishing. After hitting a peak above 425 million in the late 1970s the number of children has plummeted to only around 250 million today & will likely fall below 100 million below 2070. Our world is changing.
Based on the latest Census the Fertility Rate in El Salvador has plummeted to just 1.4. The Capital San Salvador has a TFR of just 1.14, an East Asian or European low.
February 3, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Based on the latest Census the Fertility Rate in El Salvador has plummeted to just 1.4. The Capital San Salvador has a TFR of just 1.14, an East Asian or European low.
🇵🇱👶Polish births fell by around 20,000 last year to around 252,000. Poland had approximately the same TFR as China in 2024 (1.10). Natural decline topped 150,000. TFR was still above lowest low as recently as 2021. Truly a massive fall these past few years.
t.co/07AahTzQiH
t.co/07AahTzQiH
https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/01/30/annual-births-in-poland-hit-new-postwar-low-as-population-decline-accelerates/#:~:text=It%20was%20also%20the%2012th,the%20country's%20ongoing%20demographic%20cha...
t.co
February 3, 2025 at 4:38 PM
🇵🇱👶Polish births fell by around 20,000 last year to around 252,000. Poland had approximately the same TFR as China in 2024 (1.10). Natural decline topped 150,000. TFR was still above lowest low as recently as 2021. Truly a massive fall these past few years.
t.co/07AahTzQiH
t.co/07AahTzQiH
According to Haaretz, Israel appears to have seen a wartime “baby boom” during the War in Gaza, with births surging 10% during the final months of 2024. t.co/1ArxwOeK6X
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/culture/health/2025-01-10/ty-article/.premium/israel-sees-wartime-baby-boom-with-10-percent-rise-in-births-in-final-months-of-2024/00000194-4caf-da5e-abbd-5eff33d70...
t.co
January 27, 2025 at 2:25 AM
According to Haaretz, Israel appears to have seen a wartime “baby boom” during the War in Gaza, with births surging 10% during the final months of 2024. t.co/1ArxwOeK6X
Former Yugoslavia as a whole healthier TFR wise than most of Europe. Ukraine not 1.0. Many more women 18-45 have left Ukraine than this accounts for. Probably TFR closer to 1.2. Don’t see this Europe still being a major world player come 2050. Unlike US, no big Gen Z cohort.
January 27, 2025 at 2:23 AM
Former Yugoslavia as a whole healthier TFR wise than most of Europe. Ukraine not 1.0. Many more women 18-45 have left Ukraine than this accounts for. Probably TFR closer to 1.2. Don’t see this Europe still being a major world player come 2050. Unlike US, no big Gen Z cohort.
Smartphone proliferation drove social media proliferation which spread the antinatalist fuel of individualism, consumerism,& materialism. This in turn hurt relationship rates/formation in most countries which in turn hit the fertility rate almost everywhere. There is your story.
January 12, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Smartphone proliferation drove social media proliferation which spread the antinatalist fuel of individualism, consumerism,& materialism. This in turn hurt relationship rates/formation in most countries which in turn hit the fertility rate almost everywhere. There is your story.
The Brazilian population could stabilize as low as 220 million by 2040 (think it could get as high as 224 million) before falling (eventually below 200M). Brazil will be an aged country before 2050 & super-aged by 2060. Births will fall to just 2 million annually before then.
January 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The Brazilian population could stabilize as low as 220 million by 2040 (think it could get as high as 224 million) before falling (eventually below 200M). Brazil will be an aged country before 2050 & super-aged by 2060. Births will fall to just 2 million annually before then.
462,240. That’s the number of Thai births in 2024. To put this into perspective Thailand saw 1,221,228 births in 1971, so nearly three times last years number. Thailand demographically pulling a Taiwan or Korea when it is far less economically developed,this will become common.
January 6, 2025 at 9:37 PM
462,240. That’s the number of Thai births in 2024. To put this into perspective Thailand saw 1,221,228 births in 1971, so nearly three times last years number. Thailand demographically pulling a Taiwan or Korea when it is far less economically developed,this will become common.
In Australia East Asian TFR is almost as low as in sending countries (and in many cases even lower). Australian Koreans on 0.86 vs 0.73 in South Korea. Australian Taiwanese on 0.71 vs 0.85 in Taiwan. Australian Chinese on 0.85 vs 1.0 in the PRC.
December 31, 2024 at 2:01 PM
In Australia East Asian TFR is almost as low as in sending countries (and in many cases even lower). Australian Koreans on 0.86 vs 0.73 in South Korea. Australian Taiwanese on 0.71 vs 0.85 in Taiwan. Australian Chinese on 0.85 vs 1.0 in the PRC.
The Philippines are certainly following the lowest projection intervals on TFR if this decline bears out. If this path continues the Filipino births will fall below 1,000,000 by 2050 & 500,000 by 2080.
December 31, 2024 at 2:01 PM
The Philippines are certainly following the lowest projection intervals on TFR if this decline bears out. If this path continues the Filipino births will fall below 1,000,000 by 2050 & 500,000 by 2080.
Child cohort has melted away in East Asia & Europe & will continue disappearing for decades to come. In both regions child populations will fall well over half from their heights as the elderly population explodes. By 2035 East Asia will have just 150M compared to 425M in 1977.
December 24, 2024 at 5:54 PM
Child cohort has melted away in East Asia & Europe & will continue disappearing for decades to come. In both regions child populations will fall well over half from their heights as the elderly population explodes. By 2035 East Asia will have just 150M compared to 425M in 1977.
Of the main current U.S. immigrant origin countries it seems: immigrants from South Korea will basically drop to zero from low levels today, from China dramatically reduced, from Vietnam level off, from Mexico likely level off, from India increase (perhaps even substantially).
December 23, 2024 at 12:24 PM
Of the main current U.S. immigrant origin countries it seems: immigrants from South Korea will basically drop to zero from low levels today, from China dramatically reduced, from Vietnam level off, from Mexico likely level off, from India increase (perhaps even substantially).
The 2030s will be the decade where several major European & East Asian economies see 20% or more of their population being age 70 and above. In 2030 Italy hits this milestone, in 2033 Germany, 2034 South Korea & Spain, & in 2035 France & Taiwan. Over 90% of 70+ retired.
December 23, 2024 at 12:22 PM
The 2030s will be the decade where several major European & East Asian economies see 20% or more of their population being age 70 and above. In 2030 Italy hits this milestone, in 2033 Germany, 2034 South Korea & Spain, & in 2035 France & Taiwan. Over 90% of 70+ retired.
Jamaica is demographically doomed. Very very hard to see a rebound in time. Likely sub 2M before 2060. It is an emigration nation, has tanking TFR (like almost all of the Caribbean), crime a problem, & there is basically nothing being done to turn things around on the island.
December 15, 2024 at 6:24 PM
Jamaica is demographically doomed. Very very hard to see a rebound in time. Likely sub 2M before 2060. It is an emigration nation, has tanking TFR (like almost all of the Caribbean), crime a problem, & there is basically nothing being done to turn things around on the island.
The total number of United States and European Union births are rapidly converging. This is despite the fact that the European union has more than 100 million more people. This could be the decade where US births finally eclipse those of the European Union.
December 14, 2024 at 1:00 PM
The total number of United States and European Union births are rapidly converging. This is despite the fact that the European union has more than 100 million more people. This could be the decade where US births finally eclipse those of the European Union.
The profound drops in working age populations in China, Italy, Japan, Russia, Germany, & Spain may very well cause a global fiscal crisis. Unlikely a top heavy population will vote for cuts to their pensions & other benefits. Of developed world U.S. and Australia in best shape.
December 12, 2024 at 2:09 PM
The profound drops in working age populations in China, Italy, Japan, Russia, Germany, & Spain may very well cause a global fiscal crisis. Unlikely a top heavy population will vote for cuts to their pensions & other benefits. Of developed world U.S. and Australia in best shape.
From 2030 Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czechia will age rapidly with all becoming very aged societies by 2040 & continuing to age quickly until ~2060 before leveling off presenting huge challenges to countries like Germany, that rely on their relatively affordable & skilled labor.
December 8, 2024 at 12:44 PM
From 2030 Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czechia will age rapidly with all becoming very aged societies by 2040 & continuing to age quickly until ~2060 before leveling off presenting huge challenges to countries like Germany, that rely on their relatively affordable & skilled labor.
Regardless of the technological innovations in warfare, it is clear from all recent conflicts that manpower is still as necessary as ever. This will certainly be the case at least until 2035 at the absolute earliest. As I’ve posted,Taiwan, South Korea, & Japan in trouble there.
December 5, 2024 at 12:09 PM
Regardless of the technological innovations in warfare, it is clear from all recent conflicts that manpower is still as necessary as ever. This will certainly be the case at least until 2035 at the absolute earliest. As I’ve posted,Taiwan, South Korea, & Japan in trouble there.
Egypt likely to roughly follow -0.5 child trajectory. TFR is falling fast & will likely be below replacement by or before 2030. The country will likely see its population peak between 150-165 million. Quite a few projections of more than 250 million made just a few years ago.
December 3, 2024 at 1:28 AM
Egypt likely to roughly follow -0.5 child trajectory. TFR is falling fast & will likely be below replacement by or before 2030. The country will likely see its population peak between 150-165 million. Quite a few projections of more than 250 million made just a few years ago.
By 2030 Zambia will likely be on 3.0 TFR & by 2040 close to replacement. Almost all of Africa going this route. Sub Saharan Africa destined to stay below 2.3 billion. Those who predicted 4B plus were very wrong & lacked understanding of technological, social, & economic trends.
November 29, 2024 at 11:38 AM
By 2030 Zambia will likely be on 3.0 TFR & by 2040 close to replacement. Almost all of Africa going this route. Sub Saharan Africa destined to stay below 2.3 billion. Those who predicted 4B plus were very wrong & lacked understanding of technological, social, & economic trends.
East Asia’s population is going to fall extremely hard. It already peaked around 2020. Now the region is in the process of shedding over half a billion people between today and 2100. By ~2090 East Asia will have around the same population it had in 1970.
November 29, 2024 at 11:37 AM
East Asia’s population is going to fall extremely hard. It already peaked around 2020. Now the region is in the process of shedding over half a billion people between today and 2100. By ~2090 East Asia will have around the same population it had in 1970.
Thailand is in real trouble. They’re heavily service sector oriented+have a TFR of~1.0. Most significant decrease in their workforce projected to take place during 2030s & 2040s. Main source countries for foreign labor are Myanmar & Cambodia,both likely sub replacement by 2030.
November 27, 2024 at 5:51 PM
Thailand is in real trouble. They’re heavily service sector oriented+have a TFR of~1.0. Most significant decrease in their workforce projected to take place during 2030s & 2040s. Main source countries for foreign labor are Myanmar & Cambodia,both likely sub replacement by 2030.
Since the early 2010s in Hungary Victor Orban’s natalist efforts seem to have failed to take root with more than half the female population. More than a quarter of women born in 1980 (in their early to mid 30s when natalism drive started) chose not to have children. Many more had small families.
November 26, 2024 at 7:24 PM
Since the early 2010s in Hungary Victor Orban’s natalist efforts seem to have failed to take root with more than half the female population. More than a quarter of women born in 1980 (in their early to mid 30s when natalism drive started) chose not to have children. Many more had small families.