Darya Dolzikova
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ddolzikova.bsky.social
Darya Dolzikova
@ddolzikova.bsky.social
Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Research Fellow at RUSI @rusi.bsky.social.

Iran nuclear; nuclear safety in warzones and military targeting of nuclear sites; some nuclear trade; other nuclear things.

💻: https://www.rusi.org/people/dolzikova
Spoke with BBC earlier on Iran’s nuclear programme and prospects for weaponisation or diplomatic resolution.

An increasingly concerning picture. Iran is more vulnerable than it has been in a while; hard to say if it perceives greater security in diplomacy or a bomb.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Where next for Iran now its 'Axis of Resistance' is shattered?
The toppling of Bashar al-Assad has major consequences for Iran
www.bbc.co.uk
December 12, 2024 at 4:12 PM
Reposted by Darya Dolzikova
Money launderer for Russian spies won deal to help defend Ukraine power plant www.ft.com/content/57a3...
Money launderer for Russian spies won deal to help defend Ukraine power plant
Sanctioned ‘entrepreneur’ awarded sensitive state contract to provide parts for Dnipro hydroelectric station damaged by Russian missiles
www.ft.com
December 7, 2024 at 8:42 AM
Zarif lays out Iran’s role in resolution of regional issues.

On nuclear, says Trump/Europe “have themselves to blame” for Iran’s nuclear progress. Notes that more pressure won’t work and that Iran is ready for dialogue - if West can ensure economic benefits.

www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-ira...
How Iran Sees the Path to Peace
The Islamic Republic is open to negotiations—including with America.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 2, 2024 at 11:12 AM
My latest for @rusi.bsky.social on nuclear diplomacy with #Iran.

With Trump re-elected and UNSC snapback expiry looming in October 2025, there may be a window of opportunity to convince Iran that it’s time for meaningful diplomacy. But expectations should be tempered.

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
A Window of Opportunity on the Iran Nuclear File
Europe and the US must capitalise on Iran’s vulnerabilities and time pressures to push for meaningful nuclear diplomacy before the October 2025 ‘snapback’ deadline expires.
www.rusi.org
November 28, 2024 at 2:07 PM
Must read.

Rosatom looking to mine uranium in Namibia using methods that risk contamination of water supply.

Still, local population is keen for more RU investment, with Rosatom sponsoring local school food programme.

(With input from some of my earlier work).

www.aljazeera.com/features/202...
Is Russia poisoning Namibia’s water in its hunt for uranium?
Russian nuclear energy company Rosatom is trying to drill for uranium in Namibia. Farmers say a key aquifer is at risk.
www.aljazeera.com
November 27, 2024 at 11:53 AM
Interesting enough for the fact of having gotten someone from a Russian nuclear base on the record but otherwise a bit of a non-story…

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Russian deserter reveals war secrets of guarding nuclear base
A combat alert was in place on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, he tells the BBC.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 26, 2024 at 1:42 PM
This is a perennial challenge with deserter testimony. Have seen similar issues in DPRK context. Individuals will only have small piece of the puzzle and may not fully know or be able to accurately and meaningfully describe what they’re looking at. Statements must be reviewed alongside other intel.
Russian security guard tells BBC about Putin’s “special” nuke alert during Ukraine invasion. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Possible some personnel changes but Russian strategic forces are always on alert, except bombers and tac nukes. And US Intel has not reported significant changes then or since.
November 26, 2024 at 1:33 PM
Reposted by Darya Dolzikova
For folks interested in reading on the Russian approach to escalation, deterrence via intimidation versus through limited use of force, concepts of dosed or deterrent damage, etc. warontherocks.com/2022/09/esca...
Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy - War on the Rocks
Editor’s Note: After the Russian military collapse in and around Kharkiv Oblast, there is now renewed concern that Russian leaders could behave
warontherocks.com
November 22, 2024 at 1:49 PM
Reposted by Darya Dolzikova
NEW: Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. (🧵1/7)
November 23, 2024 at 12:07 AM
Calling for #IAEA report into unresolved questions on #Iran ‘s nuclear programme would put the issue point blank to Tehran in advance of October 2025: either provide answers on programme the Agency has been after for years or make clear you don’t intend to cooperate.

www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/w...
U.S. and Europeans Move to Censure Iran for Nuclear Secrecy
Before Donald J. Trump takes office, the West wants to call out Iran for failing to adhere to treaty obligations to be transparent about its nuclear past and present.
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2024 at 10:07 AM
This seems to have slipped a bit under the radar last week: Russian introduction of restrictions on shipments of enriched uranium to US. Full details unclear.

@financialtimes.com story with reference to my earlier @rusi.bsky.social report on RU enriched uranium trade.

www.ft.com/content/ec09...
The enriched uranium market is all at sea
Russia’s retaliatory restrictions on exports to the US have yet to hit prices
www.ft.com
November 21, 2024 at 10:03 AM