I don't think there's any precedent for that big of a reverse swing.

We're going to have dig up some prior recount data though, since that seems where it's headed.

"Done" might be an overstatement. The last few percent can be a little unusual and start to swing the other way, but as long her share of the remainder is above 50% she wins, which I think is very likely.

Thanks! I had fun doing analysis, I'm glad some people found it interesting.

☝️ Right, it's not really reversion to the mean so much as small highly variable drops that happen at the very end that don't have a huge impact on the overall share of that last 17%.

Scraped all the daily reports from king county elections (which unfortunately only goes back to 2017). Then grabbed mayor, council, and city attorney races where there was a pretty clear progressive vs centrist matchup, which was most of them.

Yeah, seems like that can happen. Maybe they start counting some very late mail-in ballots here. But the averaging over increases and decreases it still seems like overall flat or better in the last 17%.

I pulled a bunch of other daily drop data from other races and put it on a scale of percent counted here: bsky.app/profile/dcjo...

Still, every election is different, and this is incredibly close, so do check that your ballot was actually counted.
bsky.app/profile/wils...

Or to look at in another way, the share of ballots the progressive takes on the last 17% counted has always met or exceeded their share on the second to last 17% in the 21 races I looked at.

Looking at historical daily counts, the share that the progressive takes typically doesn't go down from here. (Until the tiny updates at the end).

Nice, I have plots I'll post about this, but I think she is likely to do at least this well on the remaining chunk.

Yeah I think that might make things more comparable, I'm going play around with that idea.

Though Wilson is on a slightly shallower trajectory on this plot, counting this year has lagged behind, so she should get bigger than average boost on Monday. (Green horizontal line is the current reported turnout this year)

Not a done deal, but odds are still in her favor in my opinion!

Yeah that seems right. I couldn't find all the data, but McGinn 2013 was also 8.9 point shift. She just has to have a somewhat normal Seattle turnout pattern.