David Coletto
@davidcoletto.bsky.social
Founder & CEO of Canada’s most sought-after and influential polling firm, Abacus Data.
Prof at Carleton University.
Davidcoletto.substack.com
🚴♂️🎾🏔️📈📊
Prof at Carleton University.
Davidcoletto.substack.com
🚴♂️🎾🏔️📈📊
The federal race remains tight: Conservatives 41%, Liberals 40%. Among likely voters, the Conservative lead widens slightly. The NDP holds at 8%. The deadlock continues.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Full results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
November 11, 2025 at 3:15 AM
The federal race remains tight: Conservatives 41%, Liberals 40%. Among likely voters, the Conservative lead widens slightly. The NDP holds at 8%. The deadlock continues.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Full results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Mark Carney’s favourability holds steady at +12 net, while Pierre Poilievre’s has fallen to -7, his lowest in over a year.
The floor crossing may have bruised Poilievre’s image more than it boosted Carney’s.
Read more: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The floor crossing may have bruised Poilievre’s image more than it boosted Carney’s.
Read more: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
November 10, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Mark Carney’s favourability holds steady at +12 net, while Pierre Poilievre’s has fallen to -7, his lowest in over a year.
The floor crossing may have bruised Poilievre’s image more than it boosted Carney’s.
Read more: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The floor crossing may have bruised Poilievre’s image more than it boosted Carney’s.
Read more: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Approval of the Carney government has dipped to 44%, its lowest since the election.
The budget did not reverse the downward trend, suggesting Canadians are waiting to see results.
More from our latest poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The budget did not reverse the downward trend, suggesting Canadians are waiting to see results.
More from our latest poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
November 10, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Approval of the Carney government has dipped to 44%, its lowest since the election.
The budget did not reverse the downward trend, suggesting Canadians are waiting to see results.
More from our latest poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The budget did not reverse the downward trend, suggesting Canadians are waiting to see results.
More from our latest poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The cost of living is continuing its rise as a top issue, named by two-thirds of Canadians, the highest level this year.
The economy and healthcare follow, but affordability remains the political lens.
Full poll results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The economy and healthcare follow, but affordability remains the political lens.
Full poll results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
November 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM
The cost of living is continuing its rise as a top issue, named by two-thirds of Canadians, the highest level this year.
The economy and healthcare follow, but affordability remains the political lens.
Full poll results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The economy and healthcare follow, but affordability remains the political lens.
Full poll results: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
33% of Canadians say the country is heading in the right direction, 49% say the wrong one. A restless but steady mood.
The post-budget moment hasn’t changed how people feel about the direction of the country: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The post-budget moment hasn’t changed how people feel about the direction of the country: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
November 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
33% of Canadians say the country is heading in the right direction, 49% say the wrong one. A restless but steady mood.
The post-budget moment hasn’t changed how people feel about the direction of the country: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The post-budget moment hasn’t changed how people feel about the direction of the country: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Budget 2025 landed softly. The defection of a Conservative MP briefly shook things up, but the fundamentals haven’t moved.
The Liberals and Conservatives remain tied.
Read our new Abacus Data poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The Liberals and Conservatives remain tied.
Read our new Abacus Data poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
November 10, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Budget 2025 landed softly. The defection of a Conservative MP briefly shook things up, but the fundamentals haven’t moved.
The Liberals and Conservatives remain tied.
Read our new Abacus Data poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
The Liberals and Conservatives remain tied.
Read our new Abacus Data poll: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
A week after the first Carney budget and a surprise floor crossing, Canada’s political landscape looks almost unchanged.
Approval is sliding, cost of living dominates, and the race remains neck-and-neck.
Full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Approval is sliding, cost of living dominates, and the race remains neck-and-neck.
Full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
November 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM
A week after the first Carney budget and a surprise floor crossing, Canada’s political landscape looks almost unchanged.
Approval is sliding, cost of living dominates, and the race remains neck-and-neck.
Full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Approval is sliding, cost of living dominates, and the race remains neck-and-neck.
Full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data...
Among those aware of Budget 2025, 52% say it’s a step in the right direction, 48% the wrong one.
A tight split that reflects the divided mood of the country.
Read the full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
A tight split that reflects the divided mood of the country.
Read the full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 10, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Among those aware of Budget 2025, 52% say it’s a step in the right direction, 48% the wrong one.
A tight split that reflects the divided mood of the country.
Read the full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
A tight split that reflects the divided mood of the country.
Read the full Abacus Data analysis: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Just 16% of Canadians say Budget 2025 made them more confident in the government’s plan to grow the economy and make life more affordable.
Confidence remains the missing ingredient.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Confidence remains the missing ingredient.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Just 16% of Canadians say Budget 2025 made them more confident in the government’s plan to grow the economy and make life more affordable.
Confidence remains the missing ingredient.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Confidence remains the missing ingredient.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Canadians like many of the measures in Budget 2025, especially “Buy Canadian” rules and housing investments. But fewer believe it adds up to a clear plan for the economy.
Our findings: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Our findings: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 9, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Canadians like many of the measures in Budget 2025, especially “Buy Canadian” rules and housing investments. But fewer believe it adds up to a clear plan for the economy.
Our findings: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Our findings: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Budget 2025 evokes both hope and hesitation. 55% of Canadians used at least one positive word to describe it, 53% at least one negative. Many used both.
A country searching for reassurance. Full story: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
A country searching for reassurance. Full story: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 9, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Budget 2025 evokes both hope and hesitation. 55% of Canadians used at least one positive word to describe it, 53% at least one negative. Many used both.
A country searching for reassurance. Full story: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
A country searching for reassurance. Full story: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Our new poll finds Canadians torn between two stories about Budget 2025.
Some see long-term investment in housing and infrastructure.
Others see overspending and risk. Neither view dominates.
Details here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Some see long-term investment in housing and infrastructure.
Others see overspending and risk. Neither view dominates.
Details here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 9, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Our new poll finds Canadians torn between two stories about Budget 2025.
Some see long-term investment in housing and infrastructure.
Others see overspending and risk. Neither view dominates.
Details here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Some see long-term investment in housing and infrastructure.
Others see overspending and risk. Neither view dominates.
Details here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Awareness of Budget 2025 was strong at 72%. But only 15% said they were very familiar with its contents. That gap between attention and understanding shapes much of the public reaction.
Full analysis here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Full analysis here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Awareness of Budget 2025 was strong at 72%. But only 15% said they were very familiar with its contents. That gap between attention and understanding shapes much of the public reaction.
Full analysis here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Full analysis here: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Canadians are split on the Carney government’s first budget.
Support for key measures is strong, but the story tying it all together hasn’t landed.
Our latest survey breaks down what Canadians think and why: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Support for key measures is strong, but the story tying it all together hasn’t landed.
Our latest survey breaks down what Canadians think and why: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 9, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Canadians are split on the Carney government’s first budget.
Support for key measures is strong, but the story tying it all together hasn’t landed.
Our latest survey breaks down what Canadians think and why: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Support for key measures is strong, but the story tying it all together hasn’t landed.
Our latest survey breaks down what Canadians think and why: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
How dependent is the Conservative Party on Pierre Poilievre’s leadership?
Our new survey for the Toronto Star shows no other tested figure draws more support.
Poilievre remains the party’s strongest option today.
See the findings: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Our new survey for the Toronto Star shows no other tested figure draws more support.
Poilievre remains the party’s strongest option today.
See the findings: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 9, 2025 at 1:00 PM
How dependent is the Conservative Party on Pierre Poilievre’s leadership?
Our new survey for the Toronto Star shows no other tested figure draws more support.
Poilievre remains the party’s strongest option today.
See the findings: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Our new survey for the Toronto Star shows no other tested figure draws more support.
Poilievre remains the party’s strongest option today.
See the findings: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
A divided first impression of Budget 2025. Awareness was high, but understanding and confidence lag behind.
Read our new Abacus Data survey on how Canadians are reacting to Mark Carney’s first budget: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Read our new Abacus Data survey on how Canadians are reacting to Mark Carney’s first budget: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
November 9, 2025 at 12:00 PM
A divided first impression of Budget 2025. Awareness was high, but understanding and confidence lag behind.
Read our new Abacus Data survey on how Canadians are reacting to Mark Carney’s first budget: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
Read our new Abacus Data survey on how Canadians are reacting to Mark Carney’s first budget: abacusdata.ca/canadians-r...
In our latest Abacus Data poll for the Toronto Star, we tested a range of possible Conservative leaders.
None generated more support than Pierre Poilievre.
Full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
None generated more support than Pierre Poilievre.
Full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 9, 2025 at 11:30 AM
In our latest Abacus Data poll for the Toronto Star, we tested a range of possible Conservative leaders.
None generated more support than Pierre Poilievre.
Full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
None generated more support than Pierre Poilievre.
Full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
If Pierre Poilievre were not leading the Conservatives, would the party do better or worse?
Our new poll for the Toronto Star finds no other Conservative figure matches his performance nationally.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Our new poll for the Toronto Star finds no other Conservative figure matches his performance nationally.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 9, 2025 at 4:45 AM
If Pierre Poilievre were not leading the Conservatives, would the party do better or worse?
Our new poll for the Toronto Star finds no other Conservative figure matches his performance nationally.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Our new poll for the Toronto Star finds no other Conservative figure matches his performance nationally.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
A new Abacus Data survey for the Toronto Star asked: What would happen to the Conservatives if Pierre Poilievre stepped aside?
We tested several possible successors. None performed better than Poilievre.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
We tested several possible successors. None performed better than Poilievre.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 9, 2025 at 1:30 AM
A new Abacus Data survey for the Toronto Star asked: What would happen to the Conservatives if Pierre Poilievre stepped aside?
We tested several possible successors. None performed better than Poilievre.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
We tested several possible successors. None performed better than Poilievre.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
No tested Conservative alternative performs better than Pierre Poilievre.
Harper polls at 34%, Ford at 31%, Kenney, Mulroney, and Rempel Garner all below 30%.
Poilievre leads with 38% against Carney’s Liberals at 36%.
See the full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Harper polls at 34%, Ford at 31%, Kenney, Mulroney, and Rempel Garner all below 30%.
Poilievre leads with 38% against Carney’s Liberals at 36%.
See the full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 8, 2025 at 11:00 PM
No tested Conservative alternative performs better than Pierre Poilievre.
Harper polls at 34%, Ford at 31%, Kenney, Mulroney, and Rempel Garner all below 30%.
Poilievre leads with 38% against Carney’s Liberals at 36%.
See the full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Harper polls at 34%, Ford at 31%, Kenney, Mulroney, and Rempel Garner all below 30%.
Poilievre leads with 38% against Carney’s Liberals at 36%.
See the full report: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
When asked how they would feel about the Conservatives under a different leader, 29% of Canadians said more likely to vote Conservative, 12% less likely.
That 17-point gap suggests opportunity, but it also shows how hard Poilievre is to replace.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
That 17-point gap suggests opportunity, but it also shows how hard Poilievre is to replace.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 8, 2025 at 10:00 PM
When asked how they would feel about the Conservatives under a different leader, 29% of Canadians said more likely to vote Conservative, 12% less likely.
That 17-point gap suggests opportunity, but it also shows how hard Poilievre is to replace.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
That 17-point gap suggests opportunity, but it also shows how hard Poilievre is to replace.
Details: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Pierre Poilievre defines the Conservative brand more than any other figure.
43% of Canadians view him positively, 46% negatively.
Among Conservative voters, his net favourability is +70.
He divides, but he anchors his party.
Full analysis: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
43% of Canadians view him positively, 46% negatively.
Among Conservative voters, his net favourability is +70.
He divides, but he anchors his party.
Full analysis: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 8, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Pierre Poilievre defines the Conservative brand more than any other figure.
43% of Canadians view him positively, 46% negatively.
Among Conservative voters, his net favourability is +70.
He divides, but he anchors his party.
Full analysis: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
43% of Canadians view him positively, 46% negatively.
Among Conservative voters, his net favourability is +70.
He divides, but he anchors his party.
Full analysis: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
New Abacus Data poll for the Toronto Star: What happens to the Conservative Party if Pierre Poilievre is no longer leader?
We tested multiple potential successors and found none outperform him.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
We tested multiple potential successors and found none outperform him.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
November 8, 2025 at 7:00 PM
New Abacus Data poll for the Toronto Star: What happens to the Conservative Party if Pierre Poilievre is no longer leader?
We tested multiple potential successors and found none outperform him.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
We tested multiple potential successors and found none outperform him.
Full results: abacusdata.ca/what-happen...
Reaction to:
Boosting military and defence spending by $81 billion over five years (2025-26 to 2029-30) to meet NATO targets and modernize the Armed Forces
Good idea - 54%
Neither - 20%
Bad idea - 19%
Unsure - 7%
Boosting military and defence spending by $81 billion over five years (2025-26 to 2029-30) to meet NATO targets and modernize the Armed Forces
Good idea - 54%
Neither - 20%
Bad idea - 19%
Unsure - 7%
November 6, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Reaction to:
Boosting military and defence spending by $81 billion over five years (2025-26 to 2029-30) to meet NATO targets and modernize the Armed Forces
Good idea - 54%
Neither - 20%
Bad idea - 19%
Unsure - 7%
Boosting military and defence spending by $81 billion over five years (2025-26 to 2029-30) to meet NATO targets and modernize the Armed Forces
Good idea - 54%
Neither - 20%
Bad idea - 19%
Unsure - 7%
Just finished the Abacus Data post-budget survey
✅No change in vote intention
✅Carney net favourable +12 (largely unchanged)
✅28% unaware there was a federal budget
✅52% right direction, 48% wrong direction
Details will be out this weekend on the Abacus Data website.
✅No change in vote intention
✅Carney net favourable +12 (largely unchanged)
✅28% unaware there was a federal budget
✅52% right direction, 48% wrong direction
Details will be out this weekend on the Abacus Data website.
November 6, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Just finished the Abacus Data post-budget survey
✅No change in vote intention
✅Carney net favourable +12 (largely unchanged)
✅28% unaware there was a federal budget
✅52% right direction, 48% wrong direction
Details will be out this weekend on the Abacus Data website.
✅No change in vote intention
✅Carney net favourable +12 (largely unchanged)
✅28% unaware there was a federal budget
✅52% right direction, 48% wrong direction
Details will be out this weekend on the Abacus Data website.