David Kirk
@daveactuary.bsky.social
Actuary, figuring out the future and the now.
Decaf proponent.
For more: https://linkedin.com/in/davidkirk/
https://twentythirdfloor.co.za
Decaf proponent.
For more: https://linkedin.com/in/davidkirk/
https://twentythirdfloor.co.za
Are LoB allocations always clear and accurate?
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
September 16, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Are LoB allocations always clear and accurate?
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
A while back I posted about VaR vs CTE and why risk doesn’t stop at the 99.5th percentile. Character-constrained posts only go so far, so I’ve written a full article for those who’d rather not learn by scrolling comment threads.
September 9, 2025 at 10:37 AM
A while back I posted about VaR vs CTE and why risk doesn’t stop at the 99.5th percentile. Character-constrained posts only go so far, so I’ve written a full article for those who’d rather not learn by scrolling comment threads.
Most risk and governance policies are a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
September 2, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Most risk and governance policies are a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
From tomorrow, the US may impose tariffs of up to 30% on South African goods. Even if a last-minute deal is reached, this isn’t the end of the story. The existence of these tariffs, or the threats behind them, could have broad and longer-term consequences.
July 31, 2025 at 2:23 PM
From tomorrow, the US may impose tariffs of up to 30% on South African goods. Even if a last-minute deal is reached, this isn’t the end of the story. The existence of these tariffs, or the threats behind them, could have broad and longer-term consequences.
Why can't LACDT be positive?
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
July 22, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Why can't LACDT be positive?
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
🪙 Crypto × Insurance: Five Fascinating Intersections
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
July 1, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🪙 Crypto × Insurance: Five Fascinating Intersections
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
New JAMA Neurology research reveals 25% regional variation in dementia rates across the US - even after controlling for income, education, and health factors. As an actuary, this demographic disparity signals significant implications for Long Term Care pricing and planning.
June 24, 2025 at 10:37 AM
New JAMA Neurology research reveals 25% regional variation in dementia rates across the US - even after controlling for income, education, and health factors. As an actuary, this demographic disparity signals significant implications for Long Term Care pricing and planning.
🔍 When Contract Boundaries Shorten: What Really Changes?
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
June 17, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🔍 When Contract Boundaries Shorten: What Really Changes?
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
🎯 SARB’s 3% Inflation Target: A Regime Shift with Life Insurance Consequences?
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
June 10, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🎯 SARB’s 3% Inflation Target: A Regime Shift with Life Insurance Consequences?
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
Even after all these years, I still sometimes get to build models (or parts of models!) in R. Sometimes even in Excel. I'm glad I haven’t had to give this up entirely.
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
June 3, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Even after all these years, I still sometimes get to build models (or parts of models!) in R. Sometimes even in Excel. I'm glad I haven’t had to give this up entirely.
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
🧠 Stressed to Kill: Greatest Hits of ORSA Modelling Fails
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
May 13, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🧠 Stressed to Kill: Greatest Hits of ORSA Modelling Fails
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
Can lapse-only FinRe be treated as an insurance contract under IFRS 17?
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
May 6, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Can lapse-only FinRe be treated as an insurance contract under IFRS 17?
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
🔍 Is Financial Reinsurance Still Relevant in an IFRS 17 World?
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
April 22, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🔍 Is Financial Reinsurance Still Relevant in an IFRS 17 World?
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
Down the 10mm Rabbit Hole: A Tale of Standards, Rules and Professional Judgment
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
February 25, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Down the 10mm Rabbit Hole: A Tale of Standards, Rules and Professional Judgment
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
I had a discussion recently about insurers' ability to build reserves for emerging risks, particularly climate change. Regulatory frameworks like Solvency II and South Africa's SAM are sometimes blamed for constraining this ability. But...
February 4, 2025 at 11:37 AM
I had a discussion recently about insurers' ability to build reserves for emerging risks, particularly climate change. Regulatory frameworks like Solvency II and South Africa's SAM are sometimes blamed for constraining this ability. But...
🤔 Are we over-stressing South African equities and under-stressing global ones?
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
January 21, 2025 at 11:37 AM
🤔 Are we over-stressing South African equities and under-stressing global ones?
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
Capital Modeling for Parametric Insurance
As parametric insurance gains traction, insurers face specific challenges in capital modeling and regulatory capital navigation.
Let's look at some of the considerations (thread)
As parametric insurance gains traction, insurers face specific challenges in capital modeling and regulatory capital navigation.
Let's look at some of the considerations (thread)
December 10, 2024 at 11:37 AM
Capital Modeling for Parametric Insurance
As parametric insurance gains traction, insurers face specific challenges in capital modeling and regulatory capital navigation.
Let's look at some of the considerations (thread)
As parametric insurance gains traction, insurers face specific challenges in capital modeling and regulatory capital navigation.
Let's look at some of the considerations (thread)
📊 Poll Results vs Reality: South African Government Bonds' Credit Risk
Some weeks ago, I asked about the credit risk of South African government bonds. Surprisingly, 20% of you said "only negligible risk" - maybe the same percentage involved with IFRS17? 🤔
But what's the real story? 🧐
Some weeks ago, I asked about the credit risk of South African government bonds. Surprisingly, 20% of you said "only negligible risk" - maybe the same percentage involved with IFRS17? 🤔
But what's the real story? 🧐
December 1, 2024 at 7:40 AM
📊 Poll Results vs Reality: South African Government Bonds' Credit Risk
Some weeks ago, I asked about the credit risk of South African government bonds. Surprisingly, 20% of you said "only negligible risk" - maybe the same percentage involved with IFRS17? 🤔
But what's the real story? 🧐
Some weeks ago, I asked about the credit risk of South African government bonds. Surprisingly, 20% of you said "only negligible risk" - maybe the same percentage involved with IFRS17? 🤔
But what's the real story? 🧐