David Kirk
@daveactuary.bsky.social
Actuary, figuring out the future and the now.
Decaf proponent.
For more: https://linkedin.com/in/davidkirk/
https://twentythirdfloor.co.za
Decaf proponent.
For more: https://linkedin.com/in/davidkirk/
https://twentythirdfloor.co.za
Why does your insurance premium go up when someone else hit your parked car?
When you see someone tailgating, how often do you then see them weave without indicating, cut across a solid line, push into the off-ramp queue?
When you see someone tailgating, how often do you then see them weave without indicating, cut across a solid line, push into the off-ramp queue?
December 23, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Why does your insurance premium go up when someone else hit your parked car?
When you see someone tailgating, how often do you then see them weave without indicating, cut across a solid line, push into the off-ramp queue?
When you see someone tailgating, how often do you then see them weave without indicating, cut across a solid line, push into the off-ramp queue?
Are LoB allocations always clear and accurate?
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
September 16, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Are LoB allocations always clear and accurate?
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
Line of business (LoB) classification under Solvency II or SAM can materially impact your solvency capital requirement. The choice is sometimes less clear than many realise.
A while back I posted about VaR vs CTE and why risk doesn’t stop at the 99.5th percentile. Character-constrained posts only go so far, so I’ve written a full article for those who’d rather not learn by scrolling comment threads.
September 9, 2025 at 10:37 AM
A while back I posted about VaR vs CTE and why risk doesn’t stop at the 99.5th percentile. Character-constrained posts only go so far, so I’ve written a full article for those who’d rather not learn by scrolling comment threads.
Most risk and governance policies are a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
September 2, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Most risk and governance policies are a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
I’ve drafted many policies, reviewed many policies, and had to operate by many policies. More often than not, they’re a mess.
From tomorrow, the US may impose tariffs of up to 30% on South African goods. Even if a last-minute deal is reached, this isn’t the end of the story. The existence of these tariffs, or the threats behind them, could have broad and longer-term consequences.
July 31, 2025 at 2:23 PM
From tomorrow, the US may impose tariffs of up to 30% on South African goods. Even if a last-minute deal is reached, this isn’t the end of the story. The existence of these tariffs, or the threats behind them, could have broad and longer-term consequences.
Why can't LACDT be positive?
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
July 22, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Why can't LACDT be positive?
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
The SAM rules say so, but the logic doesn't.
Loss Absorbing Capacity of Deferred Taxes (LACDT) is capped at zero under SAM. But think about this: just because a Deferred Tax Asset is recoverable today doesn't mean it survives a 1-in-200 stress.
🪙 Crypto × Insurance: Five Fascinating Intersections
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
July 1, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🪙 Crypto × Insurance: Five Fascinating Intersections
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
Despite the crypto market's volatility and NFT collapse, cryptocurrency applications in insurance haven't disappeared—they're evolving.
5 areas where crypto intersects with insurance, each requiring careful actuarial analysis.
New JAMA Neurology research reveals 25% regional variation in dementia rates across the US - even after controlling for income, education, and health factors. As an actuary, this demographic disparity signals significant implications for Long Term Care pricing and planning.
June 24, 2025 at 10:37 AM
New JAMA Neurology research reveals 25% regional variation in dementia rates across the US - even after controlling for income, education, and health factors. As an actuary, this demographic disparity signals significant implications for Long Term Care pricing and planning.
🔍 When Contract Boundaries Shorten: What Really Changes?
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
June 17, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🔍 When Contract Boundaries Shorten: What Really Changes?
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
Contract boundaries often require interpretation. IFRS 17 and SAM don’t use identical wording, but most insurers aim for alignment. The principles are similar—SAM even borrowed from early IFRS 17 drafts.
🎯 SARB’s 3% Inflation Target: A Regime Shift with Life Insurance Consequences?
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
June 10, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🎯 SARB’s 3% Inflation Target: A Regime Shift with Life Insurance Consequences?
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
There are mixed views on the South African Reserve Bank’s potential move to a 3% inflation target (from the current 3%–6% range).
Even after all these years, I still sometimes get to build models (or parts of models!) in R. Sometimes even in Excel. I'm glad I haven’t had to give this up entirely.
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
June 3, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Even after all these years, I still sometimes get to build models (or parts of models!) in R. Sometimes even in Excel. I'm glad I haven’t had to give this up entirely.
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
One question that’s cropped up in various forms lately:
"Do I have enough simulations?"
🧠 Stressed to Kill: Greatest Hits of ORSA Modelling Fails
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
May 13, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🧠 Stressed to Kill: Greatest Hits of ORSA Modelling Fails
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
(Or: how not to write a 100-page risk document that no one reads)
I’ve reviewed more ORSAs than I can count — and I've learnt something from each one. So I pulled together a list of 20+ common failures I keep seeing.
Can lapse-only FinRe be treated as an insurance contract under IFRS 17?
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
May 6, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Can lapse-only FinRe be treated as an insurance contract under IFRS 17?
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
Possibly — although it always depends on the exact structure and terms. (This post is just general information - as always, contact me for advice on your specific situation)
🔍 Is Financial Reinsurance Still Relevant in an IFRS 17 World?
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
April 22, 2025 at 10:37 AM
🔍 Is Financial Reinsurance Still Relevant in an IFRS 17 World?
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
Short answer: Yes – but the rationale is shifting, and the hoops are getting higher.
Asset-liability mismatch is one of the biggest risks life insurers face.
If you're writing annuities or fixed-term investment products, a robust ALM framework isn't optional — it's essential.
If you're writing annuities or fixed-term investment products, a robust ALM framework isn't optional — it's essential.
March 25, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Asset-liability mismatch is one of the biggest risks life insurers face.
If you're writing annuities or fixed-term investment products, a robust ALM framework isn't optional — it's essential.
If you're writing annuities or fixed-term investment products, a robust ALM framework isn't optional — it's essential.
Down the 10mm Rabbit Hole: A Tale of Standards, Rules and Professional Judgment
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
February 25, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Down the 10mm Rabbit Hole: A Tale of Standards, Rules and Professional Judgment
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
A missing 10mm socket - the most standardised size in automotive work - led me to reflect on how engineers and actuaries balance standardisation, regulation, and professional judgement.
🤔 A Technical IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment Challenge for Non-Life Insurance
Have you uncovered the interesting Risk Adjustment puzzle under IFRS 17 for catastrophe risks and confidence interval disclosures?
Have you uncovered the interesting Risk Adjustment puzzle under IFRS 17 for catastrophe risks and confidence interval disclosures?
February 11, 2025 at 11:37 AM
🤔 A Technical IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment Challenge for Non-Life Insurance
Have you uncovered the interesting Risk Adjustment puzzle under IFRS 17 for catastrophe risks and confidence interval disclosures?
Have you uncovered the interesting Risk Adjustment puzzle under IFRS 17 for catastrophe risks and confidence interval disclosures?
I had a discussion recently about insurers' ability to build reserves for emerging risks, particularly climate change. Regulatory frameworks like Solvency II and South Africa's SAM are sometimes blamed for constraining this ability. But...
February 4, 2025 at 11:37 AM
I had a discussion recently about insurers' ability to build reserves for emerging risks, particularly climate change. Regulatory frameworks like Solvency II and South Africa's SAM are sometimes blamed for constraining this ability. But...
Why You Should Be Cautious When Comparing SCR Cover Ratios
We often look at Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a measure of insurers' financial strength. While benchmarking these ratios can be informative, comparing them across insurers requires careful consideration.
We often look at Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a measure of insurers' financial strength. While benchmarking these ratios can be informative, comparing them across insurers requires careful consideration.
January 28, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Why You Should Be Cautious When Comparing SCR Cover Ratios
We often look at Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a measure of insurers' financial strength. While benchmarking these ratios can be informative, comparing them across insurers requires careful consideration.
We often look at Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a measure of insurers' financial strength. While benchmarking these ratios can be informative, comparing them across insurers requires careful consideration.
🤔 Are we over-stressing South African equities and under-stressing global ones?
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
January 21, 2025 at 11:37 AM
🤔 Are we over-stressing South African equities and under-stressing global ones?
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
Our latest research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
🚨 Important Compliance Insight for South African Insurers 🚨
In researching how insurers get into difficulty, I keep stumbling on situations where insurers have faced penalties for not obtaining the required approval for intra-group loans and financial assistance.
(thread)
In researching how insurers get into difficulty, I keep stumbling on situations where insurers have faced penalties for not obtaining the required approval for intra-group loans and financial assistance.
(thread)
January 14, 2025 at 11:37 AM
🚨 Important Compliance Insight for South African Insurers 🚨
In researching how insurers get into difficulty, I keep stumbling on situations where insurers have faced penalties for not obtaining the required approval for intra-group loans and financial assistance.
(thread)
In researching how insurers get into difficulty, I keep stumbling on situations where insurers have faced penalties for not obtaining the required approval for intra-group loans and financial assistance.
(thread)
Liquidity vs Solvency: Understanding Insurance Company Risks
Examining how these risks interact, and challenging common assumptions about insurance company risks.
Examining how these risks interact, and challenging common assumptions about insurance company risks.
Liquidity vs Solvency: Understanding Insurance Company Risks – Twenty Third Floor
David Kirk
twentythirdfloor.co.za
January 10, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Liquidity vs Solvency: Understanding Insurance Company Risks
Examining how these risks interact, and challenging common assumptions about insurance company risks.
Examining how these risks interact, and challenging common assumptions about insurance company risks.
🤔 Are we over-stressing South African equities and under-stressing global ones?
Research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
https://za.milliman.com/en-gb/insight/reassessing-sam-equity-shocks-calibration
Research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
https://za.milliman.com/en-gb/insight/reassessing-sam-equity-shocks-calibration
Reassessing SAM equity shocks: Is the current calibration still fit for purpose?
For South Africa insurers, do prescribed equity shocks – under the framework for solvency assessment and management – still reflect the risks that carriers face?
za.milliman.com
January 7, 2025 at 11:37 AM
🤔 Are we over-stressing South African equities and under-stressing global ones?
Research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
https://za.milliman.com/en-gb/insight/reassessing-sam-equity-shocks-calibration
Research challenges the current SAM equity shock calibrations, analysing market data through 2024. The findings might surprise you:
https://za.milliman.com/en-gb/insight/reassessing-sam-equity-shocks-calibration
The Equity Symmetric Adjustment: Dispelling Myths and Understanding Market Dynamics
Few mechanisms are as misunderstood as the equity symmetric adjustment (ESA).
Few mechanisms are as misunderstood as the equity symmetric adjustment (ESA).
The Equity Symmetric Adjustment: Dispelling Myths and Understanding Market Dynamics – Twenty Third Floor
David Kirk
twentythirdfloor.co.za
December 31, 2024 at 11:37 AM
The Equity Symmetric Adjustment: Dispelling Myths and Understanding Market Dynamics
Few mechanisms are as misunderstood as the equity symmetric adjustment (ESA).
Few mechanisms are as misunderstood as the equity symmetric adjustment (ESA).
1. Largest undercount of any national census - and by a long way.
2. Clear evidence of implausible results.
3. Some components and measures never to be released.
But the census is just fine. Nothing to see here. Intellectually dishonest.
2. Clear evidence of implausible results.
3. Some components and measures never to be released.
But the census is just fine. Nothing to see here. Intellectually dishonest.
December 24, 2024 at 11:37 AM
1. Largest undercount of any national census - and by a long way.
2. Clear evidence of implausible results.
3. Some components and measures never to be released.
But the census is just fine. Nothing to see here. Intellectually dishonest.
2. Clear evidence of implausible results.
3. Some components and measures never to be released.
But the census is just fine. Nothing to see here. Intellectually dishonest.