“The irony of this war is that the green transition accelerated in Ukraine, because they destroy a coal-fired power station and we build more wind parks to replace it.”

When all you’ve got is a hammer…

analysis of federal climate policy it's a pretty big tell that you simply dislike the federal government having climate policy. 10/10

In other words, even the government’s cost-benefit analysis falls short of capturing the full extent of potential benefits, making the $428 million of benefits a lowball estimate.
Regrettable as it is, if you’re still relying on (and widely disseminating) PBO 9/

Nor does it consider the “stimulation of new low-carbon industries, such as hydrogen, or for the longer-term competitiveness benefits of a decarbonized Canadian oil and gas sector in a world that complies with existing commitments under the Paris Agreement.” 8/

which found the “net benefits of the proposed Regulations are estimated to be $428 million over the time frame of the analysis (2025 to 2032)” – & this doesn’t consider the possible use of offsets, which would be expected to reduce compliance costs, nor the benefits from reduced air pollution. 7/

Noting it's beyond their mandate, the PBO suggests “they could be considered in a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed oil and gas emissions cap regulations.” Good news, this has already been done in the government's Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement canadagazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p1/202... 6/

(16% growth from today) & natural gas prod'n would increase by a trillion cubic feet (14% growth).
The PBO is clear that their assessment “does not account for the benefits of reducing Canada’s GHG emissions.” So we shouldn’t be surprised if an analysis that only looks at costs only finds costs. 5/

Of course, the sector's cheerleaders/policy's opponents aren't acknowledging that the impact documented by PBO isn't a production cut relative to today, but rather slower growth.
Dig into the numbers and you'll see that oil sands production would still increase by over a half million bpd 4/

For starters, the assumption that oil and gas producers will simply reduce production to achieve compliance rather than harnessing their much-touted capacity for innovation and commitment to net zero (+ significant federal $ for the required tech, such as CCS) to achieve the required reductions.
3/

As Andrew Leach (no fan of the policy) said on Twitter, "Find someone that hates your enemies as much as the PBO hates GHG emissions policies, and find someone who loves you as much as the PBO loves being the centre of attacks on the gov't."
What makes it shoddy? 2/