@danielcincu.bsky.social
Inventory causes price in the short term. Price causes inventory in the long term.
September 30, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Inventory causes price in the short term. Price causes inventory in the long term.
Any particular column you can point to for this?
I'm not saying you are wrong. But I am a little skeptical because much of left critique of moderates is under the assumption that people who don't agree with them secretly do, but "sell out", because they *couldn't possibly* have other reasons.
I'm not saying you are wrong. But I am a little skeptical because much of left critique of moderates is under the assumption that people who don't agree with them secretly do, but "sell out", because they *couldn't possibly* have other reasons.
September 28, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Any particular column you can point to for this?
I'm not saying you are wrong. But I am a little skeptical because much of left critique of moderates is under the assumption that people who don't agree with them secretly do, but "sell out", because they *couldn't possibly* have other reasons.
I'm not saying you are wrong. But I am a little skeptical because much of left critique of moderates is under the assumption that people who don't agree with them secretly do, but "sell out", because they *couldn't possibly* have other reasons.
I send their emails to junk. They are invariably horrible.
September 17, 2025 at 2:16 AM
I send their emails to junk. They are invariably horrible.
That's neither necessary in order to have a fairer economy nor will result in one. Sweden has more billionaires per capita than the US, yet excellent public services.
It would, however, crater investment. It's also arbitrary and capricious. Why a billion? Because of the word?
It would, however, crater investment. It's also arbitrary and capricious. Why a billion? Because of the word?
September 10, 2025 at 8:45 PM
That's neither necessary in order to have a fairer economy nor will result in one. Sweden has more billionaires per capita than the US, yet excellent public services.
It would, however, crater investment. It's also arbitrary and capricious. Why a billion? Because of the word?
It would, however, crater investment. It's also arbitrary and capricious. Why a billion? Because of the word?
Reposted
Many older psych hospitals also have a distinctive "V" or "Y" shape due to the influence of The Kirkbride Plan 99percentinvisible.org/episode/the-...
The Kirkbride Plan - 99% Invisible
Maybe you have a story like this. How once upon a time, on the outskirts of the town where you grew up, or where you went to school, on the edge of the woods, there was a scary old asylum. But the one...
99percentinvisible.org
March 23, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Many older psych hospitals also have a distinctive "V" or "Y" shape due to the influence of The Kirkbride Plan 99percentinvisible.org/episode/the-...
Likewise the state of autonomous driving is hard to predict. In the end Tesla could still win this, by having a more general solution. I don't think that solves the brand's problem, which is Musk, but it's still possible the technology could end up hugely valuable for licensing to others.
March 21, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Likewise the state of autonomous driving is hard to predict. In the end Tesla could still win this, by having a more general solution. I don't think that solves the brand's problem, which is Musk, but it's still possible the technology could end up hugely valuable for licensing to others.
Toyota is vividly described as having superior "upcoming technology", but in reality Toyota has low valuation because it's a laggard in the EV space and sells virtually no EVs unless you count hybrids, which you shouldn't. Chinese firm BYD is far more advanced and produces at scale.
March 21, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Toyota is vividly described as having superior "upcoming technology", but in reality Toyota has low valuation because it's a laggard in the EV space and sells virtually no EVs unless you count hybrids, which you shouldn't. Chinese firm BYD is far more advanced and produces at scale.
Much as I think that Tesla is in trouble and will bleed both revenue and earnings, which might even turn negative, during the next few quarters, some of the info given in this article is just plain wrong. Tesla does not have $48 billion in debt, it has $13 billion.
March 21, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Much as I think that Tesla is in trouble and will bleed both revenue and earnings, which might even turn negative, during the next few quarters, some of the info given in this article is just plain wrong. Tesla does not have $48 billion in debt, it has $13 billion.
To do things at will, you need will.
March 14, 2025 at 12:43 AM
To do things at will, you need will.
You wish! That's the optimistic interpretation.
The pessimistic one is that Russia is using an array of social science tools to manipulate US public opinion and would rather have nobody looking into it, especially at the Pentagon.
The pessimistic one is that Russia is using an array of social science tools to manipulate US public opinion and would rather have nobody looking into it, especially at the Pentagon.
March 11, 2025 at 5:45 AM
You wish! That's the optimistic interpretation.
The pessimistic one is that Russia is using an array of social science tools to manipulate US public opinion and would rather have nobody looking into it, especially at the Pentagon.
The pessimistic one is that Russia is using an array of social science tools to manipulate US public opinion and would rather have nobody looking into it, especially at the Pentagon.
Indeed. Step up is kind of insane. There's an argument to be made that without step up, you effectively tax long term inflation. But if that were the goal, it would have been set up to deduce it. Instead, if your asset appreciates much faster than inflation, you step up all the gain, which is crazy.
March 11, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Indeed. Step up is kind of insane. There's an argument to be made that without step up, you effectively tax long term inflation. But if that were the goal, it would have been set up to deduce it. Instead, if your asset appreciates much faster than inflation, you step up all the gain, which is crazy.
I'm pretty sure "pledging" shares has no tax meaning till the pledge is actually executed, typically at death. The shares are still his. He wouldn't owe capital gains taxes regardless if he doesn't sell his stock, which he has no intention of doing either way.
March 11, 2025 at 1:20 AM
I'm pretty sure "pledging" shares has no tax meaning till the pledge is actually executed, typically at death. The shares are still his. He wouldn't owe capital gains taxes regardless if he doesn't sell his stock, which he has no intention of doing either way.
What's strategic about it? It looks like the regular kind to me.
March 6, 2025 at 3:15 AM
What's strategic about it? It looks like the regular kind to me.
About the Caymans, a fiscal paradise for billionaires everywhere.
March 6, 2025 at 3:13 AM
About the Caymans, a fiscal paradise for billionaires everywhere.
China has been exiting US treasuries since 2012 and is now 40% below peak. I don't count holdings via third countries because those are estimates, not hard data and, even using the biggest estimates there's no net increase, so the percentage of US debt held by China has been falling for years.
January 8, 2025 at 7:29 AM
China has been exiting US treasuries since 2012 and is now 40% below peak. I don't count holdings via third countries because those are estimates, not hard data and, even using the biggest estimates there's no net increase, so the percentage of US debt held by China has been falling for years.
It's not. That would be Japan with $1.1 trillion. China and the UK both are in the mid $700 billion range.
January 8, 2025 at 6:22 AM
It's not. That would be Japan with $1.1 trillion. China and the UK both are in the mid $700 billion range.
The second is our gargantuan debt issuance. We are running out of long bond buyers. Or rather, the buyers are running away. If long rates don't drop, neither will mortgage rates, and this will create real problems in the US.
January 8, 2025 at 4:03 AM
The second is our gargantuan debt issuance. We are running out of long bond buyers. Or rather, the buyers are running away. If long rates don't drop, neither will mortgage rates, and this will create real problems in the US.
It is indeed likely that the USD system will come undone over the next several years. If so, it will be largely self-inflicted damage by the US itself. One part will be mistreatment of allies, highly likely with Trump but not only (Biden stopping the Nippon merger was a slap in Japan's face).
January 8, 2025 at 4:01 AM
It is indeed likely that the USD system will come undone over the next several years. If so, it will be largely self-inflicted damage by the US itself. One part will be mistreatment of allies, highly likely with Trump but not only (Biden stopping the Nippon merger was a slap in Japan's face).
O'Neill also invented MINT, for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey, which would also make no sense as a country grouping.
January 8, 2025 at 3:58 AM
O'Neill also invented MINT, for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey, which would also make no sense as a country grouping.
Meanwhile BRICS is, economically, a fancy way to say China. The second biggest, and it's quite a distant second, is India. But India will never align with China.
The whole thing was a convenience for a Goldman Sachs economist, Jim O'Neill. It's not a cohesive group at all.
The whole thing was a convenience for a Goldman Sachs economist, Jim O'Neill. It's not a cohesive group at all.
January 8, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Meanwhile BRICS is, economically, a fancy way to say China. The second biggest, and it's quite a distant second, is India. But India will never align with China.
The whole thing was a convenience for a Goldman Sachs economist, Jim O'Neill. It's not a cohesive group at all.
The whole thing was a convenience for a Goldman Sachs economist, Jim O'Neill. It's not a cohesive group at all.
While the USD reserve currency status is important, and profitable for the US, I just don't buy the arguments that it leads to everything else, including military. Yanis Varoufakis pushes this one a lot, but it seems handwavy to me.
January 8, 2025 at 3:52 AM
While the USD reserve currency status is important, and profitable for the US, I just don't buy the arguments that it leads to everything else, including military. Yanis Varoufakis pushes this one a lot, but it seems handwavy to me.
I didn't say there was. I'm saying that that's an example of the type of agency where waste is not justified.
January 7, 2025 at 7:10 PM
I didn't say there was. I'm saying that that's an example of the type of agency where waste is not justified.
This is a "yes, but".
Yes, the government should be able to make mistakes when it gains knowledge even in failure, though this is a very bad problem for politicians, who hate failure. Think NASA.
But the government should not waste a dime when it buys no knowledge with that waste. Think SSA.
Yes, the government should be able to make mistakes when it gains knowledge even in failure, though this is a very bad problem for politicians, who hate failure. Think NASA.
But the government should not waste a dime when it buys no knowledge with that waste. Think SSA.
January 6, 2025 at 3:36 AM
This is a "yes, but".
Yes, the government should be able to make mistakes when it gains knowledge even in failure, though this is a very bad problem for politicians, who hate failure. Think NASA.
But the government should not waste a dime when it buys no knowledge with that waste. Think SSA.
Yes, the government should be able to make mistakes when it gains knowledge even in failure, though this is a very bad problem for politicians, who hate failure. Think NASA.
But the government should not waste a dime when it buys no knowledge with that waste. Think SSA.