D Hawkins
@d-hawkins.bsky.social
Curious about everything.
Mark Twain — 'A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.'
Meme-triggered emotions stop critical thinking, so I'm an X refugee. Fingers crossed for Blue Sky.
Mark Twain — 'A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.'
Meme-triggered emotions stop critical thinking, so I'm an X refugee. Fingers crossed for Blue Sky.
Pinned
D Hawkins
@d-hawkins.bsky.social
· Dec 5
I am giving a commencement speech soon and I keep thinking that the only piece of advice I really want to give is “do things more.”
So right!
Do more things.
Put more of yourself into the things you do.
Never stop learning about new things to do.
Life is good, if you do these things.
Do more things.
Put more of yourself into the things you do.
Never stop learning about new things to do.
Life is good, if you do these things.
Wes Roth does it again. This is tough to watch because it looks at the societal implications of AI as it surpasses human capabilities.
youtu.be/H0xwOBgVAEE?...
youtu.be/H0xwOBgVAEE?...
AGI and the "Age of Human Disempowerment"
YouTube video by Wes Roth
youtu.be
January 11, 2025 at 6:07 AM
Wes Roth does it again. This is tough to watch because it looks at the societal implications of AI as it surpasses human capabilities.
youtu.be/H0xwOBgVAEE?...
youtu.be/H0xwOBgVAEE?...
In a half-hour drive south of Vancouver yesterday, we saw 47 bald eagles and six nests. This isn't a record for this time of year, but it was still great to see.
January 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
In a half-hour drive south of Vancouver yesterday, we saw 47 bald eagles and six nests. This isn't a record for this time of year, but it was still great to see.
@h2emanuel.bsky.social
Thanks for such a polite discussion with me about green hydrogen for transportation. The links you provided allowed me to update myself - it's been about 5 years since I looked into fuel cells. I'm excited about hydrogen potential for fertilizer, steel and cement production.
Thanks for such a polite discussion with me about green hydrogen for transportation. The links you provided allowed me to update myself - it's been about 5 years since I looked into fuel cells. I'm excited about hydrogen potential for fertilizer, steel and cement production.
January 10, 2025 at 5:17 AM
@h2emanuel.bsky.social
Thanks for such a polite discussion with me about green hydrogen for transportation. The links you provided allowed me to update myself - it's been about 5 years since I looked into fuel cells. I'm excited about hydrogen potential for fertilizer, steel and cement production.
Thanks for such a polite discussion with me about green hydrogen for transportation. The links you provided allowed me to update myself - it's been about 5 years since I looked into fuel cells. I'm excited about hydrogen potential for fertilizer, steel and cement production.
4) (Continued) - Green hydrogen will be easier to introduce in industrial applications than for consumer vehicles. Hydrogen is already used, or has potential benefits in many processes. Hydrogen production and distribution can be centralized. Even in these cases, stakeholder see big barriers.
@h2emanuel.bsky.social
juelich.de/record/1019111/files/1-s2.0-S2352484723015718-main.pdf
4) This itemizes economic, technical, & political barriers to green hydrogen based industrial technology, based on stakeholder input. The technology is immature, incentives are misaligned & market uneconomical.
juelich.de/record/1019111/files/1-s2.0-S2352484723015718-main.pdf
4) This itemizes economic, technical, & political barriers to green hydrogen based industrial technology, based on stakeholder input. The technology is immature, incentives are misaligned & market uneconomical.
juser.fz-juelich.de
January 10, 2025 at 4:18 AM
4) (Continued) - Green hydrogen will be easier to introduce in industrial applications than for consumer vehicles. Hydrogen is already used, or has potential benefits in many processes. Hydrogen production and distribution can be centralized. Even in these cases, stakeholder see big barriers.
The link raises questions.
1) Do low-cost renewables mitigate H2 energy inefficiency?
2) Are consumer costs for vehicles included?
3) What are vehicle price assumptions over time?
4) Is the grid impact for H2 generation included?
5) How does H2 reach the consumer?
6) ...
I'll find answers if I can.
1) Do low-cost renewables mitigate H2 energy inefficiency?
2) Are consumer costs for vehicles included?
3) What are vehicle price assumptions over time?
4) Is the grid impact for H2 generation included?
5) How does H2 reach the consumer?
6) ...
I'll find answers if I can.
Research Centre Jülich in Germany ran a detailed analysis of actual infrastructure costs for 20M vehicles to transition to either battery or fuel cell EVs, and hydrogen ended up being 20% cheaper than EV charging - www.fz-juelich.de/en/ice/ice-2...
Infrastructure Analysis H2MOBILITY
Electric drivetrains are key elements of low carbon energy-efficient transport based on renewable energy sources. Furthermore, a transportation system with zero local emissions will substantially impr...
www.fz-juelich.de
January 9, 2025 at 1:58 AM
The link raises questions.
1) Do low-cost renewables mitigate H2 energy inefficiency?
2) Are consumer costs for vehicles included?
3) What are vehicle price assumptions over time?
4) Is the grid impact for H2 generation included?
5) How does H2 reach the consumer?
6) ...
I'll find answers if I can.
1) Do low-cost renewables mitigate H2 energy inefficiency?
2) Are consumer costs for vehicles included?
3) What are vehicle price assumptions over time?
4) Is the grid impact for H2 generation included?
5) How does H2 reach the consumer?
6) ...
I'll find answers if I can.
It turns out that there's much more to a wind turbine than its tough to recycle blades.
New DOE report finds 90% of wind turbine materials are recyclable. electrek.co
January 8, 2025 at 3:29 AM
It turns out that there's much more to a wind turbine than its tough to recycle blades.
Reposted by D Hawkins
x
X has ~18m daily USA users. @bsky.app, ~1.5m.
Is it worth 20 MINS a day to proactively recruit and bring your friends, neighbors,relatives, businesses, anyone who is or could be a user, to @bsky.app?
If Bluesky ends up with more users than the others, you destabilize musk, zuck, trump.
X has ~18m daily USA users. @bsky.app, ~1.5m.
Is it worth 20 MINS a day to proactively recruit and bring your friends, neighbors,relatives, businesses, anyone who is or could be a user, to @bsky.app?
If Bluesky ends up with more users than the others, you destabilize musk, zuck, trump.
January 6, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Look carefully at AGI performance charts
AI scaling-with-more-data and scaling-with-more-compute charts use a logarithmic axis that conceals the orders of magnitude needed to achieve improvements. For each 10x in resources, they achieve a linear improvement. I.e.: the improvement costs 10x as much.
AI scaling-with-more-data and scaling-with-more-compute charts use a logarithmic axis that conceals the orders of magnitude needed to achieve improvements. For each 10x in resources, they achieve a linear improvement. I.e.: the improvement costs 10x as much.
The recent announcement of OpenAI’s o3 has caused rumours that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has arrived.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz9F...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz9F...
Will We Get AGI In 2025?
YouTube video by Sabine Hossenfelder
www.youtube.com
January 7, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Look carefully at AGI performance charts
AI scaling-with-more-data and scaling-with-more-compute charts use a logarithmic axis that conceals the orders of magnitude needed to achieve improvements. For each 10x in resources, they achieve a linear improvement. I.e.: the improvement costs 10x as much.
AI scaling-with-more-data and scaling-with-more-compute charts use a logarithmic axis that conceals the orders of magnitude needed to achieve improvements. For each 10x in resources, they achieve a linear improvement. I.e.: the improvement costs 10x as much.
SpaceX has built the launch capacity and is poised to drop costs by an order of magnitude. They are also deploying satellite bandwidth to support transmitting very large data - still too small for Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), but trending the right way. Maybe this will be feasible soon.
Got interviewed about our space-VLBI mission concept, Project Capella. Thanks to @terezapultarova.bsky.social and the @space.com team, it was a pleasure!
#CapellaVLBI
#RadioAstronomy
#Extragalactic
🔭🧪📡 🚀🛰️
#CapellaVLBI
#RadioAstronomy
#Extragalactic
🔭🧪📡 🚀🛰️
Small satellite constellation could reveal black holes like never before
"Currently, features under a certain size simply cannot be imaged."
www.space.com
January 7, 2025 at 3:49 AM
SpaceX has built the launch capacity and is poised to drop costs by an order of magnitude. They are also deploying satellite bandwidth to support transmitting very large data - still too small for Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), but trending the right way. Maybe this will be feasible soon.
Reposted by D Hawkins
Current hydrogen vehicles are driven by fossil fuels because green hydrogen is currently too expensive.
95% of hydrogen is grey - produced in a way that released CO2.
4% if blue - where the CO2 is captured and sequestered.
1% is green from electrolysis. This costs 4x Grey and 2x blue to produce.
95% of hydrogen is grey - produced in a way that released CO2.
4% if blue - where the CO2 is captured and sequestered.
1% is green from electrolysis. This costs 4x Grey and 2x blue to produce.
January 6, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Current hydrogen vehicles are driven by fossil fuels because green hydrogen is currently too expensive.
95% of hydrogen is grey - produced in a way that released CO2.
4% if blue - where the CO2 is captured and sequestered.
1% is green from electrolysis. This costs 4x Grey and 2x blue to produce.
95% of hydrogen is grey - produced in a way that released CO2.
4% if blue - where the CO2 is captured and sequestered.
1% is green from electrolysis. This costs 4x Grey and 2x blue to produce.
Reposted by D Hawkins
I' against tailpipe emissions - I just don't see hydrogen as the best solution. Battery electric vehicles are cheaper, more efficient, and utilize existing infrastructure.
Green hydrogen may make sense in some fleet operations with centralized refueling (e.g.: LA Port) but not for private vehicles.
Green hydrogen may make sense in some fleet operations with centralized refueling (e.g.: LA Port) but not for private vehicles.
January 6, 2025 at 6:03 PM
I' against tailpipe emissions - I just don't see hydrogen as the best solution. Battery electric vehicles are cheaper, more efficient, and utilize existing infrastructure.
Green hydrogen may make sense in some fleet operations with centralized refueling (e.g.: LA Port) but not for private vehicles.
Green hydrogen may make sense in some fleet operations with centralized refueling (e.g.: LA Port) but not for private vehicles.
Reposted by D Hawkins
EVs are scaling well. Norway led the way. China is on an S-curve adoption.
FCEVs do not scale well. Capacity for green H2 production, storage, delivery & retail distribution would have to scale 1000x (100,000%) to replace the current vehicle fleet.
FCEVs do not scale well. Capacity for green H2 production, storage, delivery & retail distribution would have to scale 1000x (100,000%) to replace the current vehicle fleet.
January 6, 2025 at 7:01 PM
EVs are scaling well. Norway led the way. China is on an S-curve adoption.
FCEVs do not scale well. Capacity for green H2 production, storage, delivery & retail distribution would have to scale 1000x (100,000%) to replace the current vehicle fleet.
FCEVs do not scale well. Capacity for green H2 production, storage, delivery & retail distribution would have to scale 1000x (100,000%) to replace the current vehicle fleet.
Reposted by D Hawkins
A hydrogen fuel pump costs 5x to 100x what a gas pump costs. Annual maintenance for a hydrogen pump is 1.5x to 10x the cost of a brand new gas pump.
Replacing current 145,000 USA gas pumps @ $500k each would cost $72.5 Billion at a minimum & would require H2 pipelines and production facilities.
Replacing current 145,000 USA gas pumps @ $500k each would cost $72.5 Billion at a minimum & would require H2 pipelines and production facilities.
January 6, 2025 at 6:54 PM
A hydrogen fuel pump costs 5x to 100x what a gas pump costs. Annual maintenance for a hydrogen pump is 1.5x to 10x the cost of a brand new gas pump.
Replacing current 145,000 USA gas pumps @ $500k each would cost $72.5 Billion at a minimum & would require H2 pipelines and production facilities.
Replacing current 145,000 USA gas pumps @ $500k each would cost $72.5 Billion at a minimum & would require H2 pipelines and production facilities.
Battery recycling is economically and environmentally feasible. Over time, this can reduce the need to mine new minerals for battery production.
www.redwoodmaterials.com/news/sustain...
www.redwoodmaterials.com/news/sustain...
January 7, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Battery recycling is economically and environmentally feasible. Over time, this can reduce the need to mine new minerals for battery production.
www.redwoodmaterials.com/news/sustain...
www.redwoodmaterials.com/news/sustain...
This is a concise summary of why Hydrogen is a dumb way to store energy. It looks like the USA and Europe are figuring this out. I hope Japan and Korea get the memo soon and shift focus from fuel cells and Hydrogen to renewables and batteries.
Time's awastin'!
Time's awastin'!
Over the past year, hydrogen stocks of many key companies in the business have tumbled by as much as 50%. There are good reasons for this.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=awN2...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=awN2...
Hydrogen Hype is Dying, And That's a Good Thing
YouTube video by Sabine Hossenfelder
www.youtube.com
January 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
This is a concise summary of why Hydrogen is a dumb way to store energy. It looks like the USA and Europe are figuring this out. I hope Japan and Korea get the memo soon and shift focus from fuel cells and Hydrogen to renewables and batteries.
Time's awastin'!
Time's awastin'!
This is another Wes Roth video worth watching. The AI o1 cheats when it's facing a chess opponent stronger than it is.
Watch this if you are concerned about AI.
Watch this if you are enthused about AI.
youtu.be/KfYdh-EFm4o?...
Watch this if you are concerned about AI.
Watch this if you are enthused about AI.
youtu.be/KfYdh-EFm4o?...
o1 Goes Rogue, CHEATS and breaks rules! Researchers SHOCKED that this happened...
YouTube video by Wes Roth
youtu.be
January 5, 2025 at 3:05 PM
This is another Wes Roth video worth watching. The AI o1 cheats when it's facing a chess opponent stronger than it is.
Watch this if you are concerned about AI.
Watch this if you are enthused about AI.
youtu.be/KfYdh-EFm4o?...
Watch this if you are concerned about AI.
Watch this if you are enthused about AI.
youtu.be/KfYdh-EFm4o?...
Damn - Another day that needs to go onto into my pagan sun-worshipping calendar. I thought I had a complete list. I'll start celebrating now.
QUESTION: are there any special foods or rituals I need to know about?
QUESTION: are there any special foods or rituals I need to know about?
Happy perihelion to those who celebrate! Today Earth is at its closest to the sun, so let’s discuss what that means, and why (depending on where you live) you might be surprised to hear that! 🧪🧵
Earth (and every other celestial object) orbits in an ellipse, not a perfect circle (1/n)
Earth (and every other celestial object) orbits in an ellipse, not a perfect circle (1/n)
January 4, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Damn - Another day that needs to go onto into my pagan sun-worshipping calendar. I thought I had a complete list. I'll start celebrating now.
QUESTION: are there any special foods or rituals I need to know about?
QUESTION: are there any special foods or rituals I need to know about?
This is a balanced overview of the economics and technology of battery recycling. youtu.be/tMvbg4XvM7Y?...
How Does Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Work?
YouTube video by Engineering with Rosie
youtu.be
January 4, 2025 at 5:56 AM
This is a balanced overview of the economics and technology of battery recycling. youtu.be/tMvbg4XvM7Y?...
Reposted by D Hawkins
A Public Letter to Joe Rogan from Flint Dibble
YouTube video by Archaeology with Flint Dibble
youtu.be
November 24, 2024 at 3:02 PM
It's encouraging to see how far this has come. I see 2024 as a successful pilot. Ocean Cleanup proved feasibility, fleshed out an action plan, and developed budgets that show that some effects of ocean plastics can be mitigated. Fingers crossed for 2025.
youtu.be/T2FNqfpdHV8?...
youtu.be/T2FNqfpdHV8?...
Our Biggest Trash Catch Ever & More: The Ocean Cleanup 2024 in Review
YouTube video by The Ocean Cleanup
youtu.be
December 18, 2024 at 9:12 PM
It's encouraging to see how far this has come. I see 2024 as a successful pilot. Ocean Cleanup proved feasibility, fleshed out an action plan, and developed budgets that show that some effects of ocean plastics can be mitigated. Fingers crossed for 2025.
youtu.be/T2FNqfpdHV8?...
youtu.be/T2FNqfpdHV8?...
Whenever I hear the phrase "Friday-the-thirteenth", I have to smile, because I remember that it doesn't always fall on Friday.
i.servimg.com/u/f67/18/91/...
i.servimg.com/u/f67/18/91/...
December 11, 2024 at 9:31 PM
Whenever I hear the phrase "Friday-the-thirteenth", I have to smile, because I remember that it doesn't always fall on Friday.
i.servimg.com/u/f67/18/91/...
i.servimg.com/u/f67/18/91/...
Wes Roth lays out some unsettling behavior in the newest Large Language Model AIs.
The AIs are becoming more human-like, with lies, sandbagging, and attempted hacking to get around restrictions. This is worth watching if you follow AI trends.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JPQ...
The AIs are becoming more human-like, with lies, sandbagging, and attempted hacking to get around restrictions. This is worth watching if you follow AI trends.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JPQ...
AI Researchers SHOCKED After OpenAI's New o1 Tried to Escape...
YouTube video by Wes Roth
www.youtube.com
December 11, 2024 at 6:23 PM
Wes Roth lays out some unsettling behavior in the newest Large Language Model AIs.
The AIs are becoming more human-like, with lies, sandbagging, and attempted hacking to get around restrictions. This is worth watching if you follow AI trends.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JPQ...
The AIs are becoming more human-like, with lies, sandbagging, and attempted hacking to get around restrictions. This is worth watching if you follow AI trends.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JPQ...
Yeah - so cool, and Denisovan DNA still exists in modern humans too. The percentage is smaller (4-6%)
I just found out that around 20% of the neanderthal genome still exists today in living people!!
No individual person has more than 3 or 4% but we don't all have the same bits. If you add up all the bits we've found, about a fifth of the Neanderthal genome is still present on earth today.
No individual person has more than 3 or 4% but we don't all have the same bits. If you add up all the bits we've found, about a fifth of the Neanderthal genome is still present on earth today.
December 6, 2024 at 4:33 PM
Yeah - so cool, and Denisovan DNA still exists in modern humans too. The percentage is smaller (4-6%)
Feeding hungry kids brings them to school and helps them learn. Bravo!
December 6, 2024 at 12:08 AM
Feeding hungry kids brings them to school and helps them learn. Bravo!