Will it hold? Who knows. These are strange times and anything can happen. But who would have predicted this six, even three months ago?

How are the Liberals doing it? They're no longer ceding ground to the NDP and (to a lesser extent) the CPC, which we saw in Dec. Now, they're pulling in almost half of those who voted NDP in 2021, plus one in five past Conservative voters...

What we're seeing in Winnipeg is incredible. Never mind keeping those once-precarious suburban seats - the Liberals may be able to go on offence in both CPC and NDP-held territory...

Also, FWIW, our
@proberesearch.bsky.social / JS Insights #onpoli #onelxn horse race numbers:

🔵Ford/PCs: 47%
🔴Crombie/Liberals: 27%
🟠Stiles/NDP: 17%
🟢Schreiner/Greens: 8%

N=1,200, online panel, in field Feb. 10-16, 2025