It's remarkable to have a party govern for 18 months and actually increase its level of support to this extent. That's a sizable # that voted PC in 2023 backing the MB NDP now

What would it take for the NDP's numbers to start dropping?

probe-research.com/polls/provin...

#mbpoli

How are the Liberals doing it? They're no longer ceding ground to the NDP and (to a lesser extent) the CPC, which we saw in Dec. Now, they're pulling in almost half of those who voted NDP in 2021, plus one in five past Conservative voters...

What we're seeing in Winnipeg is incredible. Never mind keeping those once-precarious suburban seats - the Liberals may be able to go on offence in both CPC and NDP-held territory...

New and very remarkable
@proberesearch.bsky.social
federal numbers for Manitoba:

LPC: 44% (+25% vs. Dec., +16% vs. Feb)
CPC: 42% (-10% vs. Dec.)
NDP: 9% (-15% vs. Dec.)
Other: 4%

N=1,000, March 4-16, 2025

probe-research.com/polls/libera...

Some newish (early Feb) federal numbers from @proberesearch in Manitoba:

CPC🔵- 45% (-7% vs. Dec. 2024)
LPC 🔴- 28% (+9%)
NDP🟠 - 22% (-2%)

And perhaps most importantly, Conservatives and Liberals statistically tied in Winnipeg

probe-research.com/polls/februa...

Also, FWIW, our
@proberesearch.bsky.social / JS Insights #onpoli #onelxn horse race numbers:

🔵Ford/PCs: 47%
🔴Crombie/Liberals: 27%
🟠Stiles/NDP: 17%
🟢Schreiner/Greens: 8%

N=1,200, online panel, in field Feb. 10-16, 2025

Some interesting #onpoli results from
@proberesearch.bsky.social and JS Insights show a strong appetite for a non-PC coalition government among Liberal and NDP voters.

Our full report on our #ONelxn can be found here: probe-research.com/polls/new-on...