Huge if we can seize micro-macro arbitrage opportunities to install a ton of resources. Gonna be a big “mid-transition” sort of process all the way through. I for one am ready to watch the “did we worry too much about decarb, let’s consolidate and optimize the system” politics of my retirement 🤞🏽.

(We’ve never seen an icebreaker like “do we need DSOs?”.)

We did a report on VPPs run / owned by a local muni, co-op, GB. Needs a 2.0 for changes in markets + policy since last hear. Plus updating the lit review. publicenterprise.org/wp-content/u...

Ditto for US and Canadian context on the necessary facilitating changes to distributional market structures and regulation. Eager to read more there.

There’s a scale piece to this whereby a bunch of micro markets aggregate into a huge regional market - reshaping the grid geography. But the spreads for that will come second to the “micro fication” process. The VRE + BESS + flex + EE spread over existing resources and build-times is too big.

The logic has always been there where self gen was possible, eg with industrial cogen. Now farms, factories, buildings can do it with with solar, and batteries complete the argument for “micro markets” with their own marginal supply cost & demand, & Q of when and if to buy from or sell to the grid.

Oh totally. Had another riff post the other day on batteries, GETs, et al as bridge tech to the firm or LDS or lines that help us “complete” electricity decarb

Reflecting, we built the historic system as a monolithic grid with large generators sending power down brachiating AC lines because that made sense at the time. What if that's not sensible anymore? What if it could be better done hybridized with DC & AC semi-islands, batteries & connectors? 🤷

I love long distance overnight (multiple) trains. But I'm told those can be rough in Australia. True or nah?

(I am not in Australia. I just expected it to take like 4-5 hours.)

Resource prioritization, deal flows, and distributional management of value creation are more informative of the tradeoffs of involving capital. You get weird (but by no means destined) cases where "aligning with a capital faction" might be the sole "pro-investment" move.

Folks might think specific policies (public ownership, derisking, etc) can be put into neat categories based on their availability for the above strategy. But that's not true!

That poses interesting questions for redistributive political coalitions because it begs the question of strategic alignment with or otherwise co-option of "capital" as a political force in the interest specifically of ensuring investment.

This was a major model for fossil electrification (it stood alongside various publicly owned utilities and co-ops). The challenge is adapting it to new resources (DERs, GETs, BESS) and expanding its geographic, regulatory, and distributional scope for continental grid integration and planning.

Heat decarb is interesting. The state can pave a path for investment via public ownership, regulated utilities, or developer-of-first resort models. In exchange, it regulates prices, profits, and projects.

Key: Who takes the deal? How do we unwind when rapid buildout ends?
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