Cosmic Penguin
@cosmicpenguinov103.bsky.social
Astronomy & spaceflight weeb penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery. Starship x Space Launch System shipper. Chinese spaceflight news hunter.
There will be quite a few Chinese launches to orbit over the few days w/ 3 more known, 1 of which has been the subject of much speculation lately. But this one has apparently been postponed from the 19th w/ people observing the payload section de-stacked.
Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!
November 17, 2025 at 1:53 PM
There will be quite a few Chinese launches to orbit over the few days w/ 3 more known, 1 of which has been the subject of much speculation lately. But this one has apparently been postponed from the 19th w/ people observing the payload section de-stacked.
Will be interesting to see answers to these:
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
November 15, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Will be interesting to see answers to these:
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
Well I missed the actual landing of the crew last night (just couldn't resist sleep after watching Atlas V go) so for those who needed a full re-cap: www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSme...
Live: Special coverage of Shenzhou-20 crew's return to Earth
YouTube video by CGTN
www.youtube.com
November 15, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Well I missed the actual landing of the crew last night (just couldn't resist sleep after watching Atlas V go) so for those who needed a full re-cap: www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSme...
The unexpected early departure of Shenzhou 21 from the CSS after arrival less than 2 weeks ago:
November 14, 2025 at 5:02 AM
The unexpected early departure of Shenzhou 21 from the CSS after arrival less than 2 weeks ago:
Structure of the porthole window:
WLR2678🌌 on X: "The #Shenzhou porthole window consists of a heat-resistant outer panel and two pressure-bearing inner panels. The cracks found on SZ-20 pose a risk of the outer panel shattering during reentry, exposing the inner panels not designed to directly withstand the heat of the plasma. https://t.co/TmY7Bgvq74" / X
The #Shenzhou porthole window consists of a heat-resistant outer panel and two pressure-bearing inner panels. The cracks found on SZ-20 pose a risk of the outer panel shattering during reentry, exposing the inner panels not designed to directly withstand the heat of the plasma. https://t.co/TmY7Bgvq74
x.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:55 AM
Structure of the porthole window:
Thinking about it, a cracked-on-outer-layer porthole window on the DM is indeed a case where I would not dare fly on the damaged Shenzhou on regular return to Earth, but one that using it to escape CSS in an emergency would have a "tolerable risk".
There’s also possibility they don’t wanna use SZ-20 for nominal re-entry, but they can tolerate risk of using it in emergency, so they just send the old crew back first with SZ-21 & then proceed to launch SZ-22 in less haste. But I just can’t see how the risk assessment work out.
November 14, 2025 at 4:13 AM
Thinking about it, a cracked-on-outer-layer porthole window on the DM is indeed a case where I would not dare fly on the damaged Shenzhou on regular return to Earth, but one that using it to escape CSS in an emergency would have a "tolerable risk".
(source: m.weibo.cn/detail/52328...)
Sina Visitor System
m.weibo.cn
November 14, 2025 at 3:57 AM
(source: m.weibo.cn/detail/52328...)
...and CMSEO now reports what was the specific problem on Shenzhou 20: they found small cracks on the side hatch window of SZ-20's descent module that they determine to be consistent with an orbital debris colliding on it. Shenzhou 20 will stay in orbit for more testing.
November 14, 2025 at 3:57 AM
...and CMSEO now reports what was the specific problem on Shenzhou 20: they found small cracks on the side hatch window of SZ-20's descent module that they determine to be consistent with an orbital debris colliding on it. Shenzhou 20 will stay in orbit for more testing.
So while we were looking at the Atlas V launching, Shenzhou 21 has undocked from the CSS at 03:14 UTC and will re-enter after another 3.5 orbits in around 4 hours...
m.weibo.cn/detail/52328...
m.weibo.cn/detail/52328...
Sina Visitor System
m.weibo.cn
November 14, 2025 at 3:57 AM
So while we were looking at the Atlas V launching, Shenzhou 21 has undocked from the CSS at 03:14 UTC and will re-enter after another 3.5 orbits in around 4 hours...
m.weibo.cn/detail/52328...
m.weibo.cn/detail/52328...
There’s also possibility they don’t wanna use SZ-20 for nominal re-entry, but they can tolerate risk of using it in emergency, so they just send the old crew back first with SZ-21 & then proceed to launch SZ-22 in less haste. But I just can’t see how the risk assessment work out.
November 14, 2025 at 12:13 AM
There’s also possibility they don’t wanna use SZ-20 for nominal re-entry, but they can tolerate risk of using it in emergency, so they just send the old crew back first with SZ-21 & then proceed to launch SZ-22 in less haste. But I just can’t see how the risk assessment work out.
Oh the least possible scenario is happening! It seems there wasn’t enough (ECLSS?) resources to have 6 people on the CSS for any much longer, so the Shenzhou 20 crew is riding launched-2-weeks-ago Shenzhou 21 back today!
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
November 14, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Oh the least possible scenario is happening! It seems there wasn’t enough (ECLSS?) resources to have 6 people on the CSS for any much longer, so the Shenzhou 20 crew is riding launched-2-weeks-ago Shenzhou 21 back today!
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
Scratch out the "almost" in the sentence above - they are coming back.
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
November 13, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Scratch out the "almost" in the sentence above - they are coming back.
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
State Television CCTV now shows they have a special coverage for the CSS, so it's almost certainly the Shenzhou 20 crew coming back within the next 10 hours (coverage starts 07:30 UTC for landing ~08:30 UTC). The minor problem of whether they will use SZ-20 itself remains.
November 13, 2025 at 11:11 PM
State Television CCTV now shows they have a special coverage for the CSS, so it's almost certainly the Shenzhou 20 crew coming back within the next 10 hours (coverage starts 07:30 UTC for landing ~08:30 UTC). The minor problem of whether they will use SZ-20 itself remains.
Only other possibility would be for the Shenzhou 20 and 21 crew to swap spacecraft while mission control continues to mull options, but that seems to be just kicking the can down the road and some crew effort would be needed to swap all 6 custom seats. I doubt this is happening.
November 12, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Only other possibility would be for the Shenzhou 20 and 21 crew to swap spacecraft while mission control continues to mull options, but that seems to be just kicking the can down the road and some crew effort would be needed to swap all 6 custom seats. I doubt this is happening.
I think we can call it now - this is the SZ-20 coming back w/ crew in <48 hours. There's just not enough time to schedule SZ-22 launching, docking to CSS (BTW TZ-9 will have to leave 1st since CSS ports are full), then freed SZ-21 to leave w/ SZ-20's crew.
Ace of Razgriz on X: "NOTAM has published for the return of a Shenzhou ship. Unclear it’s manned or not , Also SZ-20 or 21. At 1114 1620-1650 BJT. Pic via https://t.co/NSXIouyhlI https://t.co/pTbOB9DlxN" / X
NOTAM has published for the return of a Shenzhou ship. Unclear it’s manned or not , Also SZ-20 or 21. At 1114 1620-1650 BJT. Pic via https://t.co/NSXIouyhlI https://t.co/pTbOB9DlxN
x.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:09 PM
I think we can call it now - this is the SZ-20 coming back w/ crew in <48 hours. There's just not enough time to schedule SZ-22 launching, docking to CSS (BTW TZ-9 will have to leave 1st since CSS ports are full), then freed SZ-21 to leave w/ SZ-20's crew.
The whole rocket is transferred to the pad in 3 parts: m.weibo.cn/detail/52317...
November 11, 2025 at 3:41 PM
The whole rocket is transferred to the pad in 3 parts: m.weibo.cn/detail/52317...
Basically any kind of commercial launch activities at Wenchang: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HICAL
HICAL - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
November 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Basically any kind of commercial launch activities at Wenchang: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HICAL
The Long March 8A in question rolling out to the pad (“Commercial LC-1”) earlier today for stacking: x.com/cnspacefligh...
November 11, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The Long March 8A in question rolling out to the pad (“Commercial LC-1”) earlier today for stacking: x.com/cnspacefligh...
Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!
November 11, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!
And you can even try getting some sort of conclusions out of this! I certainly am inviting you to do it: 🤣
Here's the full lack of clarity on the Shenzhou-20 situation from China's human spaceflight agency in English: english.news.cn/20251111/ff7...
November 11, 2025 at 5:21 AM
And you can even try getting some sort of conclusions out of this! I certainly am inviting you to do it: 🤣
Tea leaves reading from a third angle…
Update: "Shenzhou-20 crew's return mission is progressing smoothly," CMSEO says, without explicitly stating the plan. But "landing site is currently conducting comprehensive rehearsals for the Shenzhou-20 crew's return," suggesting SZ-20 is clear to land. www.cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202511/...
No update from China's human spaceflight agency on the possible debris impact on the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft. Insiders on weibo suggest a decision soon, which will be very much safety first. We could see Shenzhou-22 launching without crew, and the 3 SZ-20 astros returning on SZ-21
November 11, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Tea leaves reading from a third angle…
I guess this is why I don’t do tea leaves reading for a living…my own interpretation says the opposite, but who knows?
Anyway either way there are extensive guidelines in what to do I am sure.
Anyway either way there are extensive guidelines in what to do I am sure.
China 'N Asia Spaceflight 🚀𝕏 🛰️ on X: "So, when CCTV broadcasts this announcement with clips of Long March 2F launch facility, I tend to believe that Long March 2F Y22 and Shenzhou-22 will very likely be activated. https://t.co/cqwt24yE8e" / X
So, when CCTV broadcasts this announcement with clips of Long March 2F launch facility, I tend to believe that Long March 2F Y22 and Shenzhou-22 will very likely be activated. https://t.co/cqwt24yE8e
x.com
November 11, 2025 at 4:35 AM
I guess this is why I don’t do tea leaves reading for a living…my own interpretation says the opposite, but who knows?
Anyway either way there are extensive guidelines in what to do I am sure.
Anyway either way there are extensive guidelines in what to do I am sure.
While the article steers completely clear of mentioning what's the plan, it seems to leans towards the Shenzhou 20 S/C is cleared for re-entry w/ crew on board after all. This actually aligns w/ some insider rumors on the +ve side of mood I have seen a day or two ago, so... 🙃
November 11, 2025 at 2:51 AM
While the article steers completely clear of mentioning what's the plan, it seems to leans towards the Shenzhou 20 S/C is cleared for re-entry w/ crew on board after all. This actually aligns w/ some insider rumors on the +ve side of mood I have seen a day or two ago, so... 🙃
Meanwhile here's long awaited news on Shenzhou 20's return: there's an official press release just out that avoids mentioning a concrete plan, but did say that they are "progressing" towards SZ-20 crew's return, including routine rehearsals on the ground.
www.news.cn/tech/2025111...
www.news.cn/tech/2025111...
神舟二十号航天员乘组返回任务有序推进-新华网
神舟二十号航天员乘组返回任务有序推进-
www.news.cn
November 11, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Meanwhile here's long awaited news on Shenzhou 20's return: there's an official press release just out that avoids mentioning a concrete plan, but did say that they are "progressing" towards SZ-20 crew's return, including routine rehearsals on the ground.
www.news.cn/tech/2025111...
www.news.cn/tech/2025111...