Cosmic Penguin
@cosmicpenguinov103.bsky.social
Astronomy & spaceflight weeb penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery. Starship x Space Launch System shipper. Chinese spaceflight news hunter.
Will be interesting to see answers to these:
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
November 15, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Will be interesting to see answers to these:
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.
The unexpected early departure of Shenzhou 21 from the CSS after arrival less than 2 weeks ago:
November 14, 2025 at 5:02 AM
The unexpected early departure of Shenzhou 21 from the CSS after arrival less than 2 weeks ago:
...and CMSEO now reports what was the specific problem on Shenzhou 20: they found small cracks on the side hatch window of SZ-20's descent module that they determine to be consistent with an orbital debris colliding on it. Shenzhou 20 will stay in orbit for more testing.
November 14, 2025 at 3:57 AM
...and CMSEO now reports what was the specific problem on Shenzhou 20: they found small cracks on the side hatch window of SZ-20's descent module that they determine to be consistent with an orbital debris colliding on it. Shenzhou 20 will stay in orbit for more testing.
Oh the least possible scenario is happening! It seems there wasn’t enough (ECLSS?) resources to have 6 people on the CSS for any much longer, so the Shenzhou 20 crew is riding launched-2-weeks-ago Shenzhou 21 back today!
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
November 14, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Oh the least possible scenario is happening! It seems there wasn’t enough (ECLSS?) resources to have 6 people on the CSS for any much longer, so the Shenzhou 20 crew is riding launched-2-weeks-ago Shenzhou 21 back today!
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.
Scratch out the "almost" in the sentence above - they are coming back.
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
November 13, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Scratch out the "almost" in the sentence above - they are coming back.
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).
State Television CCTV now shows they have a special coverage for the CSS, so it's almost certainly the Shenzhou 20 crew coming back within the next 10 hours (coverage starts 07:30 UTC for landing ~08:30 UTC). The minor problem of whether they will use SZ-20 itself remains.
November 13, 2025 at 11:11 PM
State Television CCTV now shows they have a special coverage for the CSS, so it's almost certainly the Shenzhou 20 crew coming back within the next 10 hours (coverage starts 07:30 UTC for landing ~08:30 UTC). The minor problem of whether they will use SZ-20 itself remains.
The whole rocket is transferred to the pad in 3 parts: m.weibo.cn/detail/52317...
November 11, 2025 at 3:41 PM
The whole rocket is transferred to the pad in 3 parts: m.weibo.cn/detail/52317...
The Long March 8A in question rolling out to the pad (“Commercial LC-1”) earlier today for stacking: x.com/cnspacefligh...
November 11, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The Long March 8A in question rolling out to the pad (“Commercial LC-1”) earlier today for stacking: x.com/cnspacefligh...
Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!
November 11, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!
Back to Wenchang, pad and drone camera views of today's LM-12 launch: x.com/CNSpacefligh...
November 10, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Back to Wenchang, pad and drone camera views of today's LM-12 launch: x.com/CNSpacefligh...
It seems the Jilin-1 commercial Earth observation satellite constellation may have got the worst out of Ceres-1's troubles - apparently they lost their High Resolution-04C 0.5 m resolution class sat on this, after they lost HR-04B on the previous Ceres-1 failure in Sep. 2023!
November 10, 2025 at 1:17 PM
It seems the Jilin-1 commercial Earth observation satellite constellation may have got the worst out of Ceres-1's troubles - apparently they lost their High Resolution-04C 0.5 m resolution class sat on this, after they lost HR-04B on the previous Ceres-1 failure in Sep. 2023!
This puts Ceres-1 now at 2 failures in 22 launches - strangely Galactic Energy might be following the success of Rocket Lab's Electron too closely as even the failure rate is similar to Electron's of mid-2021, when both had similar no. of launches (3 failures in 20!).
November 10, 2025 at 1:17 PM
This puts Ceres-1 now at 2 failures in 22 launches - strangely Galactic Energy might be following the success of Rocket Lab's Electron too closely as even the failure rate is similar to Electron's of mid-2021, when both had similar no. of launches (3 failures in 20!).
As for the Ceres-1...apparently it did launch at 04:02:53 UTC and, well, rumors seems to start spreading an hour later that this might have failed, but there's enough confusion (not the least of which is yesterday's LM-11 launch!) that I'm not saying this is reliable news yet.
November 10, 2025 at 5:35 AM
As for the Ceres-1...apparently it did launch at 04:02:53 UTC and, well, rumors seems to start spreading an hour later that this might have failed, but there's enough confusion (not the least of which is yesterday's LM-11 launch!) that I'm not saying this is reliable news yet.
Long March 12's liftoff from just off the shore:
November 10, 2025 at 5:29 AM
Long March 12's liftoff from just off the shore:
A bit closer to the pad:
November 10, 2025 at 4:51 AM
A bit closer to the pad:
Alternative angle of the launch - see the TEL arm dropping like the Falcon ones in the US do at liftoff?
November 10, 2025 at 4:50 AM
Alternative angle of the launch - see the TEL arm dropping like the Falcon ones in the US do at liftoff?
It's definitely pretty easy to fool people with these photos that this is a Zenit-2 or 3 rocket lifting off, down to using oxygen-rich staged-combustion kerosene/LOX engines w/ 4 combustion chambers on the 1st stage!😉
m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...
m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...
November 10, 2025 at 4:47 AM
It's definitely pretty easy to fool people with these photos that this is a Zenit-2 or 3 rocket lifting off, down to using oxygen-rich staged-combustion kerosene/LOX engines w/ 4 combustion chambers on the 1st stage!😉
m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...
m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...
In the end no surprises here for the LM-12 launch, a success after an official liftoff time of 02:41 UTC and brought the latest batch of LEO comsats for SatNet - SatNet LEO Group 13 - to orbit.
(1st photo from SpaceLens: m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...)
(1st photo from SpaceLens: m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...)
November 10, 2025 at 4:44 AM
In the end no surprises here for the LM-12 launch, a success after an official liftoff time of 02:41 UTC and brought the latest batch of LEO comsats for SatNet - SatNet LEO Group 13 - to orbit.
(1st photo from SpaceLens: m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...)
(1st photo from SpaceLens: m.weibo.cn/detail/52314...)
2 photos of LM-12 in the fog while we wait for the 2nd stage to restart: m.weibo.cn/detail/52312...
November 10, 2025 at 2:59 AM
2 photos of LM-12 in the fog while we wait for the 2nd stage to restart: m.weibo.cn/detail/52312...
Long March 12 passing through Max-Q behind the clouds:
November 10, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Long March 12 passing through Max-Q behind the clouds:
Possibly the closest rocket to the good old Soviet-Ukrainian Zenit today:
November 10, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Possibly the closest rocket to the good old Soviet-Ukrainian Zenit today:
Liftoff occurred as expected at 02:42 UTC:
November 10, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Liftoff occurred as expected at 02:42 UTC:
Now minutes away from liftoff as venting has stopped:
November 10, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Now minutes away from liftoff as venting has stopped:
T-20 minutes vent /s
November 10, 2025 at 2:22 AM
T-20 minutes vent /s
Probably ~1 hour to liftoff:
November 10, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Probably ~1 hour to liftoff: