Cory Stahle
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corystahle.bsky.social
Cory Stahle
@corystahle.bsky.social
Indeed Hiring Lab Economist
However, there are some signs of underlying weakness in the household survey side of today's job report.

The share of workers who were long-term unemployed (out of work for 27 weeks or more) continues to creep up and jumped to 23.5% in April, the highest share in three years.

#numbersday
May 2, 2025 at 1:27 PM
You can't drive a car backwards (very well at least).

A lot has happened since March and the view forward through the windshield is marred by growing concerns around US trade policy and tariffs.

Read my full JOLTS statement here:
www.hiringlab.org/2025/04/29/m...
March 2025 JOLTS Report: A Lot Has Happened Since March… - Indeed Hiring Lab
Backward-looking data continued to show a largely steady labor market in March, but a lot has happened since then.
www.hiringlab.org
April 29, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Other CPS concerns: People working part-time due to economic reasons spiked in February. While the number is noisy from month to month, it has shown a clear increase since January 2023.

Weekly hours have been in steady decline since late 2021, but have dropped more sharply in recent reports.
March 7, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Beyond the concern of federal government job losses, some continuations of not-so-great trends in the household survey.

Prime-age labor force participation is trending down and for men is back to where it was before the pandemic.
March 7, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Despite the generally sturdy foundation, there are a few small cracks worth monitoring. Hiring and quitting remain near decade lows, and growth in prime-age labor force participation is showing signs of slowing. In the next report, we'll also get a feel for the impact of California wildfires.
February 7, 2025 at 2:38 PM
We'll get a clearer picture of 2024's labor market after revisions next month.

For now, I would characterize 2024 as a tale of two halves. Some concerns around rising unemployment, declining hires & quits in the first half of the year. Started seeing signs of stabilizing in the second half though.
January 10, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Why are retail hires rates lower now than before the pandemic?

In short, retail workers aren't quitting or getting laid off.

Retail layoffs are much lower now than pre-pandemic (1.1% in Nov 2024 vs. 1.9% in Feb 2020). Quits are also down from 3.4% in 2020 to 2.5% today.

#jolts #bls #econsky
January 7, 2025 at 3:57 PM
It's hard to talk about November JOLTS data without mentioning the retail industry. Job postings for seasonal/holiday work on Indeed were below trend in November.

The hires rate for retail workers in today's JOLTS report was 3.9%, well below the 5.4% pre-pandemic rate.
January 7, 2025 at 3:49 PM
High-earning workers (4th quartile) experienced the greatest drop in real wage growth in 2021 and 2022 but they have recovered since.
December 12, 2024 at 7:59 PM