Last PoliCast before the poll. Majority Government is back on the menu, boys!

poliq.au/2025/04/30/p...

#auspol

Labor do have some momentum on their side. Since last week the PoliCast Hung-o-meter has dropped from 95% chance of a minority government to 77%. poliq.au/2025/04/23/p... #auspol

Looking at our model for the upcoming federal election, minority government is all but a certainty. We're able to quantify it based on the current polls: 95%!

See poliq.au/2025/04/07/p... for details of @samvaughan.bsky.social 's great work on this. #auspol

Deaking for comparison - Libs looking safe, not ahead as strongly though.

Thanks to @samvaughan.bsky.social for the good work here!

A few surprises in Redbridge's latest data. We'll release our model in the next week along with a prediction for the next parliament, but our results diverge a bit, especially in Victoria. It's hard to see the Greens going backwards in Wills, we have them significantly ahead:

#auspol

But I need to know the percentage of people aged 35-40 in a particular SA1! Stat!

Hello fellow refugees from x/Twitter!