Monmouth County is nearly finished counting - Ciattarelli (R) winning by ~9% - he won here by 18.5% in 2021, and Trump (R) won by ~11.3%.

Middlesex County, with ~83% of the vote in, has lurched DRAMATICALLY towards Democrat Mikie Sherrill compared to the Harris vote in 2024, and the Democratic vote in 2021. Still more vote to count, but Harris (D) won by ~8%, Sherrill leading now by ~26%.

Cape May County, with ~85% of the vote in, is tracking pretty closely to the Trump (R) performance in 2024 - but is also seeing slippage from Ciattarelli's (R) 2021 performance.

Monmouth County, with ~78% of the vote in, is showing a pretty steep drop in support for Ciattarelli (R), voting for him by ~18.5% in 2021. He currently leads by ~8%. Still some vote to count, but a steeper hill to climb.

Ocean County, with ~57% of the vote in, is showing some slippage for Jack Ciatterelli (R), but not enough that it couldn't be made up with remaining votes...but I'm curious to see if there is any movement here. Ocean County was solidly Republican in 2021 and 2024, and I expect it will be tonight.

Even as a number of counties have reported a significant chunk of vote, there's not enough yet to tell which direction this race is headed.

Surry County, a swing district in Virginia, has flipped to Democrat Abigail Spanberger. The county voted for Republicans in 2021 and 2024 by just shy of 1%. This year, it appears the county has voted for Spanberger by ~4.5%.

Loudon County, a large suburban county near Washington, DC, appears to have finished counting. Spanberger (D) has a significantly stronger margin than Harris (D) in 2024, and an even stronger performance than the Democrat in 2021.

Westmoreland County, VA, has apparently finished counting. A very slight move toward Earle-Sears (R) compared to 2024, but compared to 2021, Spanberger (D) is running a margin ~6.8% better than the Democrat then.

Surry County has reported ~75% of the vote, and was very narrow in 2021 and 2024. Right now, Spanberger (D) holds a healthy lead of ~9%. If that holds, it would indicate a likely significant swing across the Commonwealth. Votes are still being counted, but this is a county I'm watching closely!

Results have started to roll out in the Commonwealth of Virginia - no clear signs either direction at this moment! Some precincts have quickly dumped there results, but no singular county or municipality has dumped enough to get a clear idea of what's going on.

There are several instances of Democrats winning (or performing well) statewide in Montana over the last two decades. As such, I wanted to clarify that the "Toss-Up" prediction isn't a sign that something is broken - there's just limited data! (3/3)

However, I anticipate that, as we get closer to the 2026 election, and as polling starts to come in for individual races, predictions will start to shift (in the case of Montana, likely toward Republicans). Until then, the Model relies more heavily on historical data to inform predictions. (2/3)