The Forecast for November 18, 2025, is ready to read!

Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17 (Likely D)

Gubernatorial Shifts
Michigan (OPEN): Likely D -> Lean D

The Forecast for November 11, 2025, is ready to read!

Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 221, R 196, Toss-Up 18 (UPGRADE - Likely D)

Gubernatorial Shifts
Oklahoma (OPEN): Likely R -> Lean R (likely due to a lack of statewide polling)

The Forecast for November 5, 2025, is ready to read!

Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 197, Toss-Up 20 (Lean D)

2026 Gubernatorial ratings are also out now!

In the New Jersey governor's race, we predict Democrat Mikie Sherrill has been elected. This is a hold for the Democrats.

Polls have closed in New Jersey - since Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has been predicted the winner in the Virginia gubernatorial election, we move over to the Garden State!

In the Virginia governor's race, we predict Democrat Abigail Spanberger has been elected. This is a FLIP for the Democrats.

Virginia's polls are set to close at 7:00 PM Eastern time - just about five minutes from now! #VAPolitics

The Election Night 2025 Special of the Forecast is out NOW!

Final Predictions
New Jersey: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) has a 76.19% chance of winning, rating Lean D.

Virginia: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has an 81.54% chance of winning, rating Likely D.

I'll be logging my thoughts here live tonight.

A quick note about the 2026 US Senate Model: because it's so early, you may see some strange predictions due to limited polling. This is evident in Montana, where the race is currently rated a "Toss-Up". Whatever the Model predicts is what gets posted, without intervention. (1/3)

The Forecast for October 28, 2025, is ready to read!

Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 215, R 197, Toss-Up 23 (Lean D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D

The Forecast for October 21, 2025, is ready to read!

Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 200, Toss-Up 17 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D

The Forecast for October 14, 2025, is ready to read!

Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D

The Forecast for October 7, 2025, is ready to read!

Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Likely D

The Forecast - September 1, 2025
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com/p/the-foreca...

Want to see how accurate the Model has been over the last few years? Check it out here:

The Forecast - August 25, 2025
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com/p/the-foreca...

My name is Collen Mahoney. Elections have always interested me. Now I'm trying my hand at predicting them.

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