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Climate Central
@climatecentral.org
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Researching and reporting the science and impacts of climate change 🌎

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climatecentral.org
In fall, when summer fights to keep hold & winter shoulders it's way in, Cold/cool/below-average days are expected

But the data is clear: these chilly days are shrinking, while warmer-than-average days are taking over

Since 1970, the U.S. fall has warmed by an average of 2.8°F.
Map of the U.S. showing how much fall temperatures have warmed since 1970. Most areas show increases of 2°F to 4°F, with the strongest warming in the northern Great Plains, upper Midwest, and Northeast. Title reads “Fall Warming Since 1970 (°F).” Source: NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, Climate Central.
November 11, 2025 at 5:55 PM
climatecentral.org
📍Let's use Tampa, Florida, as an example:

1990s — 170 records (85% highs, 15% lows)
2000s — 60 records (87% highs, 13% lows)
2010s — 143 records (97% highs, 3% lows)
2020s — 128 records so far (100% highs)

Today was the FIRST record low temperature recorded here since 2020
Bar chart showing the percentage of high and low temperature records set by decade in Tampa, Florida, from the 1890s to 2020s. Recent decades show nearly all records are highs, with the 2020s at 100% highs and 0% lows. Title: “Tampa Area Records Set by Decade.” Source: RCC-ACIS.org, Climate Central.
November 11, 2025 at 5:55 PM
climatecentral.org
Here’s a big, key reminder: even in a warming world, cold still happens.

But thanks to heat-trapping pollution, record temperatures aren’t balanced anymore.

Short of the long: Record HEAT is FAR OUTPACING record cold
Bar chart of high and low temperature records set by decade in Orlando, Florida, from the 1890s to 2020s. Recent decades show an increasing imbalance, with nearly all records being highs in the 2020s. Title: “Orlando Records Set by Decade.” Source: RCC-ACIS.org, Climate Central. Bar chart showing record highs and lows by decade in Atlanta, Georgia, from the 1870s to 2020s. Recent decades show a clear rise in record highs, while record lows have declined sharply. Title: “Atlanta Records Set by Decade.” Source: RCC-ACIS.org, Climate Central. Bar chart of record highs and lows by decade in Knoxville, Tennessee, from the 1870s to 2020s. The 2020s show far more record highs than lows, reflecting a warming trend. Title: “Knoxville Records Set by Decade.” Source: RCC-ACIS.org, Climate Central.
November 11, 2025 at 5:55 PM
climatecentral.org
🔵Let's head east:

Big coats were a must with temperatures 15°-25° colder than average...among the coldest, if not record-setting, for Nov. 11 mornings of record.

This kind of early winter cold? Not impossible,it’s becoming less likely as we continue to warm the planet
Map showing how climate change influenced cold conditions on Nov. 11, 2025. Blues and grays across the central and eastern U.S. indicate cold air made less likely by climate change, with strongest influence in the Rockies and Plains. Title: “Climate Shift Index: Change in Likelihood Due to Climate Change (Minimum Temperatures).” Source: Climate Central. Map showing forecast minimum temperatures and record rankings for Nov. 11, 2025, across the Southeast U.S. Dozens of locations marked with pink boxes indicate record or near-record cold morning lows, including parts of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers (ACIS).
November 11, 2025 at 5:55 PM
climatecentral.org
🔴Let’s start in the West:

While comfortable, many woke up to morning temps 5°–15° warmer than average...among the top 5 warmest Nov. 11 mornings on record.

This unusual warmth? Made 3–5x MORE likely by man-made climate change in cities like LA, Denver, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.
Map showing how climate change influenced warm overnight lows on Nov. 11, 2025. Deep oranges and reds across the western U.S. show conditions made 3 to 5 times more likely by climate change. Title: “Climate Shift Index: Change in Likelihood Due to Climate Change (Minimum Temperatures).” Source: Climate Central. Map showing forecast minimum temperatures and record rankings for Nov. 11, 2025, across the western U.S. Red and orange boxes mark locations with record or near-record warm lows, including California, Nevada, and Colorado. Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers (ACIS).
November 11, 2025 at 5:55 PM
climatecentral.org
The first spill of winter air made for a c-o-l-d start to Tuesday morning across much of the eastern U.S.

...but that is not the whole story. It’s split across the Lower 48 — with climate change playing a role in both the cold and the warmth.

Let's pull this thread 🧵
Map showing forecast minimum temperatures for Nov. 11, 2025, across the continental U.S. Blue and green shading shows widespread cold morning lows, with many areas in the 20s and 30s Fahrenheit. Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers (ACIS).
November 11, 2025 at 5:55 PM
climatecentral.org
🌡️Want to track breaking temperature records? @climatecentral.org has a tool for that! Visualize local temperature records for 247 U.S. cities, updated daily, at the link below.
app.climatecentral.org/dataviz/loca...
Map of US with circles over locations that are colored in shades of purple. Darker purple are more broken records. Bottom is a list showing locations with most broken records in 2025.
November 10, 2025 at 8:20 PM
climatecentral.org
FRIDAY (11/7): Several cities across Central & South Texas experienced near or all-time record heat for the date.

🔴 Climate Shift Index shows this unusual November warmth was 3–5x more likely due to human-caused climate change.

Explore the data ▶️ csi.climatecentral.org
Graphic showing record-breaking November heat across Central and South Texas on November 7, 2025. Left: A map highlights the region with deep red shading, indicating a strong climate influence on temperatures.
November 8, 2025 at 4:03 PM
climatecentral.org
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is ending without a U.S. landfall.

Still, climate change still had an impact.

Join Climate Central & @coveringclimatenow.org to discuss:
• 2025’s record storm behavior
• The “fingerprint” on ocean heat
• What 2025 can tell us about the future
Promotional graphic for a Climate Central and Covering Climate Now “Talking Shop” event titled “How Climate Change Fueled the Historic 2025 Hurricane Season.” The event is on November 12 at 12 p.m. ET.
November 7, 2025 at 7:42 PM
climatecentral.org
Need some reading while delayed in an airport today?

Climate change is adding more bumps to the friendly skies

New research in Weather & Climate Dynamics via @egu.eu: storms are becoming more intense, frequent, & shifting tracks, bringing stronger winds/turbulence, especially during 🛬 &🛫
Illustration showing how climate change impacts air travel. A storm cloud and lightning depict severe storms disrupting flights; arrows show stronger wind shear increasing turbulence; an airplane in the center represents shifting wind patterns altering routes; rising seas threaten coastal airports; and hotter air affects takeoff near the runway.
November 7, 2025 at 5:45 PM
climatecentral.org
🥵🔥🌡 How has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat?
We have have a new interactive tool that helps you find out.
buff.ly/Q6nFRgD
Homepage for generational heat tool that asks where you were born and what year to help answer how climate change has shaped your lifetime of heat. Infographic with two people side by side with a clock in the middle. Text notes younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations. Infographic with thermometers and arrow going up with text that says younger generations will likely face accelerating change and intensifying risks-particularly from heat.
November 7, 2025 at 4:03 PM
climatecentral.org
It sometimes may not feel like it but research shows that most people in the U.S (65%) are concerned about climate change and support climate action. The rub? Americans vastly underestimate that number. The solution? Talking about climate change more!
Learn more:
buff.ly/TOZZJ8g
A line up of green filled human icons with three with just green outlines have a thought bubble above them where there are less filled in human icons and more outlined. This graphic is to show that most Americans are concerned about climate change, but they think less folks are.
November 6, 2025 at 3:31 PM
climatecentral.org
🌎 Share the facts on climate change with a new slide deck from Climate Central, available in English and Spanish. 🌎 www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...
November 5, 2025 at 5:43 PM
climatecentral.org
What is Phoenix’s fall climate story? A combo of increasing fall temperatures, lingering summer heat, higher cooling demand for schools and increasing fire weather days. Use Climate Central’s new feature to tell your climate story.
#WhatsYourClimateStory
buff.ly/pzZOf6m
4 numbers in boxes describing trends in heat, extreme heat, drought and wildfires in Phoenix during fall. List of ways climate change is affecting Phoenix in fall.
November 5, 2025 at 4:30 PM
climatecentral.org
🌡Every month, Climate Central breaks down the latest on climate change, so you don’t have to.

Our free monthly newsletter delivers:
▶️Localized climate impact insights
▶️Science-backed updates
▶️User-friendly tools/visualizations

Subscribe today!
bit.ly/3JB64Pe
Webpage for Climate Central where you can sign up for Newsletters and Alerts
November 4, 2025 at 4:03 PM
climatecentral.org
Have a favorite marathon you'd like to check out the numbers for? Check out our interactive tool 2/2 app.climatecentral.org/dataviz/mara...
Banner with blue to orange stripes with outline of runners on the right. Text at top mentions how climate change affects marathons.
October 31, 2025 at 8:53 PM
climatecentral.org
🎽This Sunday, Nov 2, 1000s of people will run the NYC Marathon! And the right temperature at race time could mean the difference between hitting that PB or not. Unfortunately, as temperatures rise, optimal conditions in NYC will become less likely. 1/2
www.climatecentral.org/report/marat...
Elite women box is white with other small boxes in blue. Bar graph shows chance of optimal raceday temperatures at NYC Marathon in 2025, 2035 and 2045. Elite men box is white with other small boxes in blue. Bar graph shows chance of optimal raceday temperatures at NYC Marathon in 2025, 2035 and 2045. Recreational women box is white with other small boxes in blue. Bar graph shows chance of optimal raceday temperatures at NYC Marathon in 2025, 2035 and 2045. Recreational men box is white with other small boxes in blue. Bar graph shows chance of optimal raceday temperatures at NYC Marathon in 2025, 2035 and 2045.
October 31, 2025 at 8:53 PM
climatecentral.org
Explore the Climate Shift Index: Ocean data along #Melissa's timeline ⤵️
October 29, 2025 at 8:37 PM
climatecentral.org
#Melissa became a record storm by devouring ocean heat made unusually warm by heat-trapping pollution.

• Monday: Above-average Caribbean waters were 600x more likely this hot from human-caused warming.
• By Tuesday: It mixed up deeper, cooler water, closer to what is typical in late-October.
October 29, 2025 at 8:37 PM
climatecentral.org
🎽Most marathons (86% of the 221 global races analyzed) are expected to decline in odds of optimal running for either recreational or elite runners by 2045.
Check out the impacts on specific races using our interactive tool! 2/2
app.climatecentral.org/dataviz/mara...
Colored horizontal bar graphs show what races would have the best running conditions.
October 28, 2025 at 4:33 PM
climatecentral.org
👟🎽New! When it comes to running marathons, there is a “sweet spot” for temperatures that support runners in achieving their best performance. Warming temperatures because of climate change are making those optimal race-day conditions increasingly rare. 1/2
www.climatecentral.org/report/marat...
Striped lines across bottom turn into silhouetted runners. Text in upper left.
October 28, 2025 at 4:33 PM
climatecentral.org
To understand the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa:

• Climate Shift Index Alert: Melissa | www.climatecentral.org/climate-shif...

• Climate Change & Melissa Real-time Data | www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...

• Climate Shift Index: Ocean | csi.climatecentral.org/ocean?lat=16...
Screenshot showing Climate Central’s post with links explaining the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa. Includes resources for the Climate Shift Index Alert, real-time tropical cyclone data, and ocean temperature maps. A thumbnail image shows Hurricane Melissa’s track across the Caribbean over red-shaded ocean areas indicating extreme warmth made 500–900 times more likely by climate change
October 28, 2025 at 4:28 PM
climatecentral.org
Since becoming a Cat 5, #Melissa has continued strengthening up to 185mph as it slowly drifted toward landfall in Southwest Jamaica.

The storm has been drawing on late-October Caribbean waters up to 2.2°F (1.2°C) above average—warmth made up to 900x more likely by human-caused climate change.
Map showing Hurricane Melissa’s track near Jamaica on October 27, 2025. Climate Shift Index data indicate ocean temperatures of 30.4°C (1.5°C above normal), made at least 900 times more likely by human-caused climate change. Multiple Category 4 and 5 icons mark Melissa’s rapid intensification path across the Caribbean. Source: Climate Central, based on NOAA OISST data.
October 28, 2025 at 4:28 PM
climatecentral.org
#Melissa was always likely to be an impactful hurricane for Jamaica, Cuba, and parts of the Bahamas.

Climate change has amplified those impacts...and the potential damages.

Read the full report, see the data, and explore the research ➡️ climatecentral.org/climate-shif...
Screenshot of Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index Alert titled “Melissa reaches Category 5 — fueled by climate change–driven ocean heat.” Text explains that Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified over waters 2.5°F (1.4°C) warmer than average—conditions up to 700 times more likely due to climate change—and that this warming likely added 10 mph to Melissa’s top wind speed, increasing potential damages by up to 50%. Includes a map of the Caribbean showing Melissa’s track and strength.
October 27, 2025 at 6:33 PM
climatecentral.org
Rainfall: 20–30"+ expected across much of Jamaica.

A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, and warmer oceans from climate change mean heavier rainfall and greater flooding when hurricanes make landfall.

Research: tropical rainfall rates are increasing by >1% per year
NOAA 3-day rainfall forecast map for Hurricane Melissa showing expected totals over the Caribbean. Jamaica is in the highest category with isolated 30+ inches of rain. Surrounding areas including eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas show 8–20 inches of forecast rainfall.
October 27, 2025 at 6:33 PM