- Elections are dynamic, with unforeseen events and last-minute shifts that models can’t always capture.
- Elections are dynamic, with unforeseen events and last-minute shifts that models can’t always capture.
- While the 13 Keys Model has a strong historical track record, no model is flawless. In 2000, it arguably missed the mark in the Bush vs. Gore race, though we’ll never know for certain.
- While the 13 Keys Model has a strong historical track record, no model is flawless. In 2000, it arguably missed the mark in the Bush vs. Gore race, though we’ll never know for certain.
- This is our first election with CLEAR’s weighting system combining Polling Data, the 13 Keys Model, and Economic Indicators, so the balance could be miscalculated.
- This is our first election with CLEAR’s weighting system combining Polling Data, the 13 Keys Model, and Economic Indicators, so the balance could be miscalculated.
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton held a strong lead in national polls (with some giving her an 80% chance), yet lost the electoral vote. Polls can misrepresent actual voter turnout, demographics, and last-minute shifts.
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton held a strong lead in national polls (with some giving her an 80% chance), yet lost the electoral vote. Polls can misrepresent actual voter turnout, demographics, and last-minute shifts.
This is CLEAR's first election prediction. With a margin of victory under 10%, we consider this within the margin of error, but we believe it to be highly accurate.
Only time will tell. Please go out and vote!
This is CLEAR's first election prediction. With a margin of victory under 10%, we consider this within the margin of error, but we believe it to be highly accurate.
Only time will tell. Please go out and vote!