CLEAR
clearmodel.bsky.social
CLEAR
@clearmodel.bsky.social
Unpredictability:
- Elections are dynamic, with unforeseen events and last-minute shifts that models can’t always capture.
November 5, 2024 at 4:16 PM
The 13 Keys:
- While the 13 Keys Model has a strong historical track record, no model is flawless. In 2000, it arguably missed the mark in the Bush vs. Gore race, though we’ll never know for certain.
November 5, 2024 at 4:16 PM
New Weighting:
- This is our first election with CLEAR’s weighting system combining Polling Data, the 13 Keys Model, and Economic Indicators, so the balance could be miscalculated.
November 5, 2024 at 4:16 PM
Polls Aren't Perfect:
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton held a strong lead in national polls (with some giving her an 80% chance), yet lost the electoral vote. Polls can misrepresent actual voter turnout, demographics, and last-minute shifts.
November 5, 2024 at 4:16 PM
🔗 dallenlarson.github.io/CLEAR/
This is CLEAR's first election prediction. With a margin of victory under 10%, we consider this within the margin of error, but we believe it to be highly accurate.

Only time will tell. Please go out and vote!
CLEAR
dallenlarson.github.io
November 5, 2024 at 3:31 PM