Christian Saenz
@chrissaenz.bsky.social
Health economist. Doctoral candidate at Georgia State University. My research examines health-related risky behaviors, alcohol, smoking, and mortality.
www.ChristianMSaenz.com
www.ChristianMSaenz.com
@truthinitative @ParentsvsVape @tobaccofreekids.bsky.social @acscan.bsky.social @CatoInstitute @DaffodilCentre @simonchapman.bsky.social @drsarahejackson.bsky.social @eriknesson.bsky.social @Courtemanche_CJ @danieldench1.bsky.social @afriedmanphd.bsky.social @MarcusDillender @matthewgrennan
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
@truthinitative @ParentsvsVape @tobaccofreekids.bsky.social @acscan.bsky.social @CatoInstitute @DaffodilCentre @simonchapman.bsky.social @drsarahejackson.bsky.social @eriknesson.bsky.social @Courtemanche_CJ @danieldench1.bsky.social @afriedmanphd.bsky.social @MarcusDillender @matthewgrennan
@jcmecon.bsky.social @econdarden.bsky.social
@DavidCGrabowski @melissawasserman.bsky.social
@Andy_SL_Tan @GaryGiovino @martymakary.bsky.social @MPEriksen @etterjf @ScottHalpernMD @Mikenber @justinwolfers.bsky.social @HuntAllcott @DrCaliff_FDA @AnupamBJena @drjbhattacharya.bsky.social @jeffstier
@DavidCGrabowski @melissawasserman.bsky.social
@Andy_SL_Tan @GaryGiovino @martymakary.bsky.social @MPEriksen @etterjf @ScottHalpernMD @Mikenber @justinwolfers.bsky.social @HuntAllcott @DrCaliff_FDA @AnupamBJena @drjbhattacharya.bsky.social @jeffstier
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
@jcmecon.bsky.social @econdarden.bsky.social
@DavidCGrabowski @melissawasserman.bsky.social
@Andy_SL_Tan @GaryGiovino @martymakary.bsky.social @MPEriksen @etterjf @ScottHalpernMD @Mikenber @justinwolfers.bsky.social @HuntAllcott @DrCaliff_FDA @AnupamBJena @drjbhattacharya.bsky.social @jeffstier
@DavidCGrabowski @melissawasserman.bsky.social
@Andy_SL_Tan @GaryGiovino @martymakary.bsky.social @MPEriksen @etterjf @ScottHalpernMD @Mikenber @justinwolfers.bsky.social @HuntAllcott @DrCaliff_FDA @AnupamBJena @drjbhattacharya.bsky.social @jeffstier
Thank you for reading! Please discuss your questions and comments in the replies below. @denverfrakes.bsky.social @dusetzinas.bsky.social @sangerkatz.bsky.social @crisdelnevo.bsky.social @gfong-waterloo.bsky.social @countthedead.bsky.social @cdcotti.bsky.social @scottgottliebmd.bsky.social 25/25
econ.bsky.social
econ.bsky.social
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Thank you for reading! Please discuss your questions and comments in the replies below. @denverfrakes.bsky.social @dusetzinas.bsky.social @sangerkatz.bsky.social @crisdelnevo.bsky.social @gfong-waterloo.bsky.social @countthedead.bsky.social @cdcotti.bsky.social @scottgottliebmd.bsky.social 25/25
Our results should not be interpreted to suggest that drug deregulation or e-cigarettes are harmless. Without question, some people are harmed by both. But available evidence from this natural experiment suggests benefits sizably exceed costs. 24/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Our results should not be interpreted to suggest that drug deregulation or e-cigarettes are harmless. Without question, some people are harmed by both. But available evidence from this natural experiment suggests benefits sizably exceed costs. 24/25
We discuss whether the mortality patterns may reverse as future generations age, and we find this highly unlikely. For example, tobacco use is lower among kids today than in 2011, and combustible cigarette use far lower. 23/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
We discuss whether the mortality patterns may reverse as future generations age, and we find this highly unlikely. For example, tobacco use is lower among kids today than in 2011, and combustible cigarette use far lower. 23/25
Our work also contributes further quasi-experimental evidence that e-cigarettes have #PublicHealth benefit in terms of smoking cessation, and now, mortality reductions. We estimate that #ecig drug exemption through 2019 had about 1/3 the benefit of #HIV drugs through 2000. 22/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Our work also contributes further quasi-experimental evidence that e-cigarettes have #PublicHealth benefit in terms of smoking cessation, and now, mortality reductions. We estimate that #ecig drug exemption through 2019 had about 1/3 the benefit of #HIV drugs through 2000. 22/25
Our paper makes many contributions. First, our paper suggests that the drug supply is over-regulated. Whether beneficial effects of drug deregulation experienced in the smoking cessation therapeutic drug class are generalizable to other classes of drugs is an open question. 21/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Our paper makes many contributions. First, our paper suggests that the drug supply is over-regulated. Whether beneficial effects of drug deregulation experienced in the smoking cessation therapeutic drug class are generalizable to other classes of drugs is an open question. 21/25
We document consistent reductions in smoking after e-cigarette drug exemption, roughly a 6 percentage point reduction in current smoking cumulatively through 2019. 20/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
We document consistent reductions in smoking after e-cigarette drug exemption, roughly a 6 percentage point reduction in current smoking cumulatively through 2019. 20/25
We meanwhile find no evidence of mortality reductions from NRT introduction or #OTC status. The unregulated drug (#ecigs) leading to mortality reductions but the regulated drug (#NRT) not raises questions about FDA #effectiveness. @fda.gov @sangerkatz.bsky.social 18/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
We meanwhile find no evidence of mortality reductions from NRT introduction or #OTC status. The unregulated drug (#ecigs) leading to mortality reductions but the regulated drug (#NRT) not raises questions about FDA #effectiveness. @fda.gov @sangerkatz.bsky.social 18/25
Event studies shown above indicate the absence of time-varying confounding. Our results are also robust across a variety of specification checks. 17/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Event studies shown above indicate the absence of time-varying confounding. Our results are also robust across a variety of specification checks. 17/25
We find that e-cigarette drug exemption in 2010 reduced smoking-attributable mortality by 10% on average from 2011-2019, saving 677,000 life-years. Most of these life year gains are from causes of death that are impacted relatively quickly after smoking cessation. 16/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
We find that e-cigarette drug exemption in 2010 reduced smoking-attributable mortality by 10% on average from 2011-2019, saving 677,000 life-years. Most of these life year gains are from causes of death that are impacted relatively quickly after smoking cessation. 16/25
As a simplified example, White men living in rural areas have high smoking rates and Asian women living in urban areas have low smoking rates. Our empirical strategy tests for disproportionate impacts among White men compared to Asian women. 15/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
As a simplified example, White men living in rural areas have high smoking rates and Asian women living in urban areas have low smoking rates. Our empirical strategy tests for disproportionate impacts among White men compared to Asian women. 15/25
We use a dosage-response diff-in-diff design which leverages variation in daily-smoking rates prior to drug introduction. We study if introduction / exemption led to greater mortality reduction for higher smoking groups than lower smoking groups. @CharlieRafkin 14/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
We use a dosage-response diff-in-diff design which leverages variation in daily-smoking rates prior to drug introduction. We study if introduction / exemption led to greater mortality reduction for higher smoking groups than lower smoking groups. @CharlieRafkin 14/25
We examine Rx NRT and OTC NRT introduction in 1984 and 1996, respectively. We also examine e-cigarette introduction in 2007 and drug exemption in 2010. 13/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
We examine Rx NRT and OTC NRT introduction in 1984 and 1996, respectively. We also examine e-cigarette introduction in 2007 and drug exemption in 2010. 13/25
To study the effects of these products on mortality, we use all death certificates from 1975 to 2019, and study the 50% of mortality that is smoking-attributable mortality. 12/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
To study the effects of these products on mortality, we use all death certificates from 1975 to 2019, and study the 50% of mortality that is smoking-attributable mortality. 12/25
The rapid innovation in e-cigarettes after drug exemption compared to minimal innovation in NRT due to drug regulation have caused many people to perceive e-cigarettes as distinctively different products today. 11/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
The rapid innovation in e-cigarettes after drug exemption compared to minimal innovation in NRT due to drug regulation have caused many people to perceive e-cigarettes as distinctively different products today. 11/25
In contrast, FDA-regulated NRTs evolved at a far slower pace. The first NRT product released was 2-mg gum in 1984. It took 9 years before it could be sold with a higher strength, 12 years to be sold OTC, and 15 years for it to be flavored. 10/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
In contrast, FDA-regulated NRTs evolved at a far slower pace. The first NRT product released was 2-mg gum in 1984. It took 9 years before it could be sold with a higher strength, 12 years to be sold OTC, and 15 years for it to be flavored. 10/25
We find drug exemption led to e-cigarette #patent applications skyrocketing in the #USA relative to #Australia, where restrictive e-cigarette regulation was largely unchanged during this time period. 9/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
We find drug exemption led to e-cigarette #patent applications skyrocketing in the #USA relative to #Australia, where restrictive e-cigarette regulation was largely unchanged during this time period. 9/25
The #ecig drug exemption provides a glimpse of a world without drug regulation but with product liability law. This allows us to test Tom Philipson and Eric Sun’s theory that #product #liability law is sufficient for a well-functioning marketplace. aeaweb.org/articles?id=... 8/25
Is the Food And Drug Administration Safe And Effective?
(Winter 2008) - In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) provides public oversight of the safety and efficacy of drugs; medical devices; biologics like vaccines and blood products;...
aeaweb.org
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
The #ecig drug exemption provides a glimpse of a world without drug regulation but with product liability law. This allows us to test Tom Philipson and Eric Sun’s theory that #product #liability law is sufficient for a well-functioning marketplace. aeaweb.org/articles?id=... 8/25
FDA drug regulation can be thought of as a trade-off between evaluating drug effectiveness/safety, and speed with which new drugs are brought to market. #MedTwitter #MedSky #PharmTwitter #healthpolicy #Pharmsky 7/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
FDA drug regulation can be thought of as a trade-off between evaluating drug effectiveness/safety, and speed with which new drugs are brought to market. #MedTwitter #MedSky #PharmTwitter #healthpolicy #Pharmsky 7/25
The D.C. District Court ruled in 2010 that per the 2009 Tobacco Control Act, the FDA could not pre-emptively regulate e-cigarettes as a drug. This was unexpected. It is the only time the FDA has been rebuffed in attempting to regulate a new product as a drug. 6/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
The D.C. District Court ruled in 2010 that per the 2009 Tobacco Control Act, the FDA could not pre-emptively regulate e-cigarettes as a drug. This was unexpected. It is the only time the FDA has been rebuffed in attempting to regulate a new product as a drug. 6/25
However, the Tobacco Control Act (#TCA) was passed shortly after the FDA began seizures, which contained language unexpectedly upsetting the FDA’s legal argument framed around Congressional intent. 5/25
January 27, 2025 at 5:51 AM
However, the Tobacco Control Act (#TCA) was passed shortly after the FDA began seizures, which contained language unexpectedly upsetting the FDA’s legal argument framed around Congressional intent. 5/25