Great conference this year at #SRNT2025 in New Orleans!

We discuss whether the mortality patterns may reverse as future generations age, and we find this highly unlikely. For example, tobacco use is lower among kids today than in 2011, and combustible cigarette use far lower. 23/25

Event studies shown above indicate the absence of time-varying confounding. Our results are also robust across a variety of specification checks. 17/25

We find that e-cigarette drug exemption in 2010 reduced smoking-attributable mortality by 10% on average from 2011-2019, saving 677,000 life-years. Most of these life year gains are from causes of death that are impacted relatively quickly after smoking cessation. 16/25

We find drug exemption led to e-cigarette #patent applications skyrocketing in the #USA relative to #Australia, where restrictive e-cigarette regulation was largely unchanged during this time period. 9/25

However, the Tobacco Control Act (#TCA) was passed shortly after the FDA began seizures, which contained language unexpectedly upsetting the FDA’s legal argument framed around Congressional intent. 5/25

The first e-cigarettes were imported to the U.S. in 2007, starting with the Ruyan V8. The Ruyan V8 was similar to FDA-approved nicotine inhalers in terms of nicotine content, being unflavored, and smoking cessation effectiveness. 3/25

What are the mortality effects of FDA drug regulation?
@mikepesko.bsky.social and I explore this using a unique natural experiment—e-cigarettes unexpectedly escaping #FDA drug regulation in 2010. The results may surprise you. 🧵 bit.ly/42w4xkG #EconSky #EpiSky #NIH #ecig #EconTwitter #EpiTwitter