Chris Meckstroth
@chrismeckstroth.bsky.social
Assoc. Professor of History, University of Cambridge. Writer on the history of democracy. Hailing from Normal, Illinois
& don’t get complacent - NYC is 100% urban, & NJ & VA dominated by suburbs, why none voted for Trump. & Trump hammered NJ & especially VA suburbs hard! His strategy is to polarise and lose there to win elsewhere, so don’t assume same swing replicates e.g. in postindustrial Midwest! Rural matters
Rural Versus Urban
How the urban-rural divide drives partisan polarization
press.princeton.edu
November 5, 2025 at 10:26 AM
& don’t get complacent - NYC is 100% urban, & NJ & VA dominated by suburbs, why none voted for Trump. & Trump hammered NJ & especially VA suburbs hard! His strategy is to polarise and lose there to win elsewhere, so don’t assume same swing replicates e.g. in postindustrial Midwest! Rural matters
+ big gender gap in NJ & VA. The whole debate about ‘centre’ vs. ‘Left’ seems to just reflect balance of suburban vs urban voters! Question is how to play in states w/ more RURAL too - probably need a 3rd plank to round out the coalition! Got values & interests, now how about respect?
November 5, 2025 at 10:26 AM
+ big gender gap in NJ & VA. The whole debate about ‘centre’ vs. ‘Left’ seems to just reflect balance of suburban vs urban voters! Question is how to play in states w/ more RURAL too - probably need a 3rd plank to round out the coalition! Got values & interests, now how about respect?
Critique’s right - but answer isn’t just (somehow?) being the cool kid on the playground. Missing issue is Trust - and Respect. If some voters think you ignored and deplored them for 30 years, they’re going to tune out what you’re saying. Winning policies show voters whose side you’re on!
October 25, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Critique’s right - but answer isn’t just (somehow?) being the cool kid on the playground. Missing issue is Trust - and Respect. If some voters think you ignored and deplored them for 30 years, they’re going to tune out what you’re saying. Winning policies show voters whose side you’re on!
Yes, some progressive policies, for educated, urban voters and young people, *and also some policies for rural voters without university degrees. In Wales Plaid speaks to both but in England Greens or Corbyn target urban or educated only. And current govt is losing both groups at once!
October 25, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Yes, some progressive policies, for educated, urban voters and young people, *and also some policies for rural voters without university degrees. In Wales Plaid speaks to both but in England Greens or Corbyn target urban or educated only. And current govt is losing both groups at once!
And not that French peasants or Third Estate never had anything to complain about until suddenly in 1789 - there had been bread riots and jacqueries for centuries, but you only got political change when some found a vehicle for organised collective action, for first time since 1614
October 16, 2025 at 4:08 PM
And not that French peasants or Third Estate never had anything to complain about until suddenly in 1789 - there had been bread riots and jacqueries for centuries, but you only got political change when some found a vehicle for organised collective action, for first time since 1614
& there’s decades of literature in sociology of social movements criticising older ‘grievance theory’ because grievances are so often persistent & can’t explain timing of new political movements - e.g. Civil Rights Movement, sure it was bad in 1950s but not suddenly much worse than say 1920s
October 16, 2025 at 3:59 PM
& there’s decades of literature in sociology of social movements criticising older ‘grievance theory’ because grievances are so often persistent & can’t explain timing of new political movements - e.g. Civil Rights Movement, sure it was bad in 1950s but not suddenly much worse than say 1920s
Could almost believe this if it weren’t same trends in so many countries - or if say after Pim Fortuyn in NL no other figure ever came along again to mobilise those voters. (Caesar?) I’m with Hegel on this one - what gives a leader the rizz is taking the side of a historical power on the rise
October 16, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Could almost believe this if it weren’t same trends in so many countries - or if say after Pim Fortuyn in NL no other figure ever came along again to mobilise those voters. (Caesar?) I’m with Hegel on this one - what gives a leader the rizz is taking the side of a historical power on the rise
Thanks, Nomi! wow, yeah - my sense is outside Canada people took the message ‘MAGA-style lost’ but real story is more it took over 1 of 2 main parties, increased vote, P is back, and future is very uncertain if Trump doesn’t assist again or Carney fails to deliver. How far off is that?
October 4, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Thanks, Nomi! wow, yeah - my sense is outside Canada people took the message ‘MAGA-style lost’ but real story is more it took over 1 of 2 main parties, increased vote, P is back, and future is very uncertain if Trump doesn’t assist again or Carney fails to deliver. How far off is that?