OK – just when news cycle was ‘Dems win’ for a few days some decided a better headline was ‘Dems give up’? I get the complexity and risks but now how do you run in 2026 on we’ll fight Trump for working people and not just give up the day after the election when he says no? How do you win back trust?

What’s striking about Mamdani, Sherrill, and Spanberger is how *similar the campaigns were: 1 Stand up to Trump + 2 Affordability for working people (=v. Fed job cuts in VA, electricity prices in NJ, health costs all over). & they won w/ mostly the same voters: young, educated, minority & left

Lucy Powell’s win sends a message: 1) even die-hard Labour supporters want a course correction, 2) but most weren’t too excited about Powell either - turnout was 16.6%! Imagine if instead of talking about rotating personnel someone ran on a programme that spoke to voters?

& Caerphilly is *not a failure for Farage’s Reform - from 1.7% to 36%, & there’s no Welsh nationalist party to compete in most of UK. Solution isn’t to copy their programme - but it does start with seeing we’re on a cliff edge and need to stop talking only to the same limited circle of voters

Afraid this was predictable: in a seat Labour held for a century they pulled 11% - almost exactly approval rating of the current government. Same exact trend in nearly all OECD democracies! What was that one about a river in Egypt?

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...

Sure economics matters in politics, but not just ‘the economy’. Distrustful - & non-university - voters see policy as showing ‘which side are you on?’ Thus Trump’s tariffs, Mamdani’s rent freeze. Both register where Biden-Bernie soft-pedalled investment did not. It’s about trust, not ‘abundance’

So sure, people on here know today at Quantico weakens institutions & rule of law, but isn’t the headline ‘Hegseth & Trump Insult the US Military?’ As in, 1st they came for immigrants, then for universities, Kimmel & Comey - but if you don’t care about any of them, at least respect our armed forces?

Chart #4 UK elections: But here’s the kicker - it’s not ONLY non-metro & non-uni voters flocking to the far right. It’s now also the YOUNGEST voters fleeing traditional parties. And if many go left (or Lib), Reform is now SECOND behind Labour! Let that sink in

www.economist.com/interactive/...

Chart #3, making sense of UK elections. 2nd big change is geographic: Reform now leads all regions outside urban centres like London (or Bristol), & Scotland – even historic left strongholds in the North or Wales. & confirmed in local elections. (see "by region") www.economist.com/interactive/...

Chart #2 to explain UK elections: You might know, Reform's lead is mostly because they dominate among blue-collar voters w/o university degrees. Reversing 100 yrs of workers leaning left 'til 2016 & shows Brexit was no blip (not just about the EU after all!)
www.economist.com/interactive/...

4 Charts to understand UK elections. #1: 'Overall Voting Intention' Of course headline is Farage's Reform is now consistenly far ahead – a first for a third party since polling began (& almost certainly since 1920s when Labour overtook Liberals – so in 100 years) www.economist.com/interactive/...

4 charts to understand UK elections today. To catch up quick, if you haven't been following closely! Economist has some great tracker charts of a poll of polls with crosstabs. Of course all the standard caveats with polls (but still)! www.economist.com/interactive/...

Hi all! Just starting out on here – my new research is about setting the rise of today's populist right in a longer, cross-national story of the history of modern democracy. Hoping to find some facts or perspective to help make sense of current events. Look forward to hearing from everybody!