Thank you to everyone who joined us for a forward-looking conversation on the future of forecasting and evidence-based policymaking!

🔗 Learn more:
cer.columbian.gwu.edu/ffc2025-26th...

The afternoon featured cutting-edge research on monetary policy, global & regional forecasting, and AI-enhanced methods — including satellite data — sparking big discussions on transparency, reliability & communication of AI-generated insights.

Opening remarks by Prof. Tara Sinclair & Prof. Neil Ericsson set the tone, followed by a lively panel on AI and the Future of Work and Can Generative AI Forecast? with speakers from the IMF, UMD, and the Mercatus Center.

This year’s theme — “Risks and Opportunities of AI & ML in Forecasting” — brought together experts from government, academia, and industry to explore how emerging tech is reshaping how we understand and predict economic trends.

The results have been a regressive property tax rate, which Professor McMillen showed to us through comprehensive graphs, as well as taking us through the methods for collecting data, and how the methods vary from county to county.

He introduced us to the inherent biases in property tax assessments, where lower-priced properties are more often priced above their market value, and more expensive properties are assessed more accurately.

Qi Chen, GW Econ PhD candidate, shared research on how social media influences the demand for innovation in online banking.
Events like #WANES2025 strengthen collaboration among Washington-area economists.
Full details 🔗 iiep.gwu.edu/2nd-washingt...

Neil Ericson (GWU Economics & CER) presented new work on gender disparities in the job market after COVID-19, using pre- and post-pandemic data to model persistent labor-market gaps and forecast future trends.

We’re proud to see Chao Wei (of GWU Economics & CER) play a key role as one of WANES’s original founders.
Summit Joshi (GW Econ) and Hector Tzavellas (GW PhD ’23) also helped make this annual event a highlight for the D.C. economics community.

This research underscores the importance of central bank communication and shows how SEP releases contribute to what markets interpret as monetary policy “surprises.” A fascinating discussion on how information effects, not just rate changes, drive market dynamics.

- Monetary policy surprises are larger at SEP meetings than non-SEP meetings.
- Up to 1/2 of the variation is explained by SEP surprises, highlighting how Fed projections convey info.
- Once SEP surprises are accounted for, differences in policy shocks between SEP & non-SEP meetings disappear.

The paper examines how the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — released at select FOMC meetings — shapes financial market reactions. Using high-frequency data and a new SEP surprise measure from Bloomberg surveys, the authors show: