@ceratgwu.bsky.social
We’ve refreshed the CER Working Paper Series! 📄✨
New papers by Tanner Regan, Carmel Chiswick &
Tomas Williams explore topics from urban economics to green finance.
Read the latest research ⬇️
🔗 cer.columbian.gwu.edu/working-papers
New papers by Tanner Regan, Carmel Chiswick &
Tomas Williams explore topics from urban economics to green finance.
Read the latest research ⬇️
🔗 cer.columbian.gwu.edu/working-papers
Working Papers | Center for Economic Research | Columbian College of Arts & Sciences | The George Washington University
Working papers from the Center of Economic Research.
cer.columbian.gwu.edu
November 14, 2025 at 4:40 PM
We’ve refreshed the CER Working Paper Series! 📄✨
New papers by Tanner Regan, Carmel Chiswick &
Tomas Williams explore topics from urban economics to green finance.
Read the latest research ⬇️
🔗 cer.columbian.gwu.edu/working-papers
New papers by Tanner Regan, Carmel Chiswick &
Tomas Williams explore topics from urban economics to green finance.
Read the latest research ⬇️
🔗 cer.columbian.gwu.edu/working-papers
Our Microeconomics Seminar hosted Emma Harrington (UVA) presenting “Learning About the Bias of Others: Prosecutors and Police Before and After Body-Worn Cameras.”
When prosecutors gained access to BWC footage, incarceration disparities ↓ ~10%.
When prosecutors gained access to BWC footage, incarceration disparities ↓ ~10%.
November 10, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Our Microeconomics Seminar hosted Emma Harrington (UVA) presenting “Learning About the Bias of Others: Prosecutors and Police Before and After Body-Worn Cameras.”
When prosecutors gained access to BWC footage, incarceration disparities ↓ ~10%.
When prosecutors gained access to BWC footage, incarceration disparities ↓ ~10%.
On Wednesday, our Macro-International Seminar hosted Sharon Ross (Fed Board) presenting “Risk and Specialization in Covered-Interest Arbitrage.”
Using $25T in data, the paper shows CIP arbitrage is risky — banks specialize, fragmenting markets.
Using $25T in data, the paper shows CIP arbitrage is risky — banks specialize, fragmenting markets.
November 7, 2025 at 6:50 PM
On Wednesday, our Macro-International Seminar hosted Sharon Ross (Fed Board) presenting “Risk and Specialization in Covered-Interest Arbitrage.”
Using $25T in data, the paper shows CIP arbitrage is risky — banks specialize, fragmenting markets.
Using $25T in data, the paper shows CIP arbitrage is risky — banks specialize, fragmenting markets.
On Oct 30, our H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting hosted Robin Lumsdaine (American U) presenting “Restricted Large Bayesian VARs.”
Her MDP prior clusters parameters, improving forecasts while easing the bias-variance trade-off.
#Forecasting #Econometrics
Her MDP prior clusters parameters, improving forecasts while easing the bias-variance trade-off.
#Forecasting #Econometrics
November 3, 2025 at 4:19 PM
On Oct 30, our H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting hosted Robin Lumsdaine (American U) presenting “Restricted Large Bayesian VARs.”
Her MDP prior clusters parameters, improving forecasts while easing the bias-variance trade-off.
#Forecasting #Econometrics
Her MDP prior clusters parameters, improving forecasts while easing the bias-variance trade-off.
#Forecasting #Econometrics
On Oct 29, our Macro-International Seminar featured Bernardo Cruz Morais presenting “Fiscal Rules, Credit Reallocation, and Expansionary Austerity.”
Local Govt Debt limits in Mexico led to ↑ private credit, ↑ GDP, ↓ in moderate poverty, but ↑ in extreme poverty.
Local Govt Debt limits in Mexico led to ↑ private credit, ↑ GDP, ↓ in moderate poverty, but ↑ in extreme poverty.
October 31, 2025 at 5:37 PM
On Oct 29, our Macro-International Seminar featured Bernardo Cruz Morais presenting “Fiscal Rules, Credit Reallocation, and Expansionary Austerity.”
Local Govt Debt limits in Mexico led to ↑ private credit, ↑ GDP, ↓ in moderate poverty, but ↑ in extreme poverty.
Local Govt Debt limits in Mexico led to ↑ private credit, ↑ GDP, ↓ in moderate poverty, but ↑ in extreme poverty.
Today in our Microeconomics Program Seminar Series, we hosted Jason Baron (Duke & NBER) presenting “Mechanism Reform for Task Allocation.”
In CPS simulations: false placements ↓14% and missed cases ↓ too — while no worker is worse off.
In CPS simulations: false placements ↓14% and missed cases ↓ too — while no worker is worse off.
October 30, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Today in our Microeconomics Program Seminar Series, we hosted Jason Baron (Duke & NBER) presenting “Mechanism Reform for Task Allocation.”
In CPS simulations: false placements ↓14% and missed cases ↓ too — while no worker is worse off.
In CPS simulations: false placements ↓14% and missed cases ↓ too — while no worker is worse off.
CER member Tanner Regan's research was featured by the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE! His work shows how knowledge diffusion + firm networks drive innovation and economic performance. 👏
🔗 cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
🔗 cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
Allocating land for housing in Tanzania
The economics of greenfield urban planning
cep.lse.ac.uk
October 29, 2025 at 8:31 PM
CER member Tanner Regan's research was featured by the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE! His work shows how knowledge diffusion + firm networks drive innovation and economic performance. 👏
🔗 cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
🔗 cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
Thank you to everyone who joined us for a forward-looking conversation on the future of forecasting and evidence-based policymaking!
🔗 Learn more:
cer.columbian.gwu.edu/ffc2025-26th...
🔗 Learn more:
cer.columbian.gwu.edu/ffc2025-26th...
FFC/2025: The 26th Federal Forecasters Conference | Center for Economic Research | Columbian College of Arts & Sciences | The George Washington University
Join the Federal Forecasters Consortium for FFC/2025: The 26th Federal Forecasters Conference.
cer.columbian.gwu.edu
October 28, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Thank you to everyone who joined us for a forward-looking conversation on the future of forecasting and evidence-based policymaking!
🔗 Learn more:
cer.columbian.gwu.edu/ffc2025-26th...
🔗 Learn more:
cer.columbian.gwu.edu/ffc2025-26th...
The afternoon featured cutting-edge research on monetary policy, global & regional forecasting, and AI-enhanced methods — including satellite data — sparking big discussions on transparency, reliability & communication of AI-generated insights.
October 28, 2025 at 6:50 PM
The afternoon featured cutting-edge research on monetary policy, global & regional forecasting, and AI-enhanced methods — including satellite data — sparking big discussions on transparency, reliability & communication of AI-generated insights.
Opening remarks by Prof. Tara Sinclair & Prof. Neil Ericsson set the tone, followed by a lively panel on AI and the Future of Work and Can Generative AI Forecast? with speakers from the IMF, UMD, and the Mercatus Center.
October 28, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Opening remarks by Prof. Tara Sinclair & Prof. Neil Ericsson set the tone, followed by a lively panel on AI and the Future of Work and Can Generative AI Forecast? with speakers from the IMF, UMD, and the Mercatus Center.
This year’s theme — “Risks and Opportunities of AI & ML in Forecasting” — brought together experts from government, academia, and industry to explore how emerging tech is reshaping how we understand and predict economic trends.
October 28, 2025 at 6:50 PM
This year’s theme — “Risks and Opportunities of AI & ML in Forecasting” — brought together experts from government, academia, and industry to explore how emerging tech is reshaping how we understand and predict economic trends.
On Oct 9, 2025, GWU hosted the 26th Federal Forecasters Conference — with the H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting and the AI Economics Program from the CER as partnering organizations. 🧵👇
#FederalForecastersConference #Forecasting #GWU
#FederalForecastersConference #Forecasting #GWU
October 28, 2025 at 6:50 PM
On Oct 9, 2025, GWU hosted the 26th Federal Forecasters Conference — with the H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting and the AI Economics Program from the CER as partnering organizations. 🧵👇
#FederalForecastersConference #Forecasting #GWU
#FederalForecastersConference #Forecasting #GWU
The results have been a regressive property tax rate, which Professor McMillen showed to us through comprehensive graphs, as well as taking us through the methods for collecting data, and how the methods vary from county to county.
October 23, 2025 at 3:03 PM
The results have been a regressive property tax rate, which Professor McMillen showed to us through comprehensive graphs, as well as taking us through the methods for collecting data, and how the methods vary from county to county.
He introduced us to the inherent biases in property tax assessments, where lower-priced properties are more often priced above their market value, and more expensive properties are assessed more accurately.
October 23, 2025 at 3:03 PM
He introduced us to the inherent biases in property tax assessments, where lower-priced properties are more often priced above their market value, and more expensive properties are assessed more accurately.
On Monday October 20th, The GWU Economics department hosted Professor Daniel McMillen from the University of Illinois, Chicago. Professor McMillen presented his research "The Magnitude, Persistence, and Demographics of Assessment Regressivity."
October 23, 2025 at 3:03 PM
On Monday October 20th, The GWU Economics department hosted Professor Daniel McMillen from the University of Illinois, Chicago. Professor McMillen presented his research "The Magnitude, Persistence, and Demographics of Assessment Regressivity."
Qi Chen, GW Econ PhD candidate, shared research on how social media influences the demand for innovation in online banking.
Events like #WANES2025 strengthen collaboration among Washington-area economists.
Full details 🔗 iiep.gwu.edu/2nd-washingt...
Events like #WANES2025 strengthen collaboration among Washington-area economists.
Full details 🔗 iiep.gwu.edu/2nd-washingt...
2nd Washington Area Network Economics Symposium (WANES) | Institute for International Economic Policy | Elliott School of International Affairs |The George Washington University | The George Washingto...
WANES is a research conference that highlights academic work from researchers at leading economics institutes in the DMV.
iiep.gwu.edu
October 20, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Qi Chen, GW Econ PhD candidate, shared research on how social media influences the demand for innovation in online banking.
Events like #WANES2025 strengthen collaboration among Washington-area economists.
Full details 🔗 iiep.gwu.edu/2nd-washingt...
Events like #WANES2025 strengthen collaboration among Washington-area economists.
Full details 🔗 iiep.gwu.edu/2nd-washingt...
Neil Ericson (GWU Economics & CER) presented new work on gender disparities in the job market after COVID-19, using pre- and post-pandemic data to model persistent labor-market gaps and forecast future trends.
October 20, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Neil Ericson (GWU Economics & CER) presented new work on gender disparities in the job market after COVID-19, using pre- and post-pandemic data to model persistent labor-market gaps and forecast future trends.
We’re proud to see Chao Wei (of GWU Economics & CER) play a key role as one of WANES’s original founders.
Summit Joshi (GW Econ) and Hector Tzavellas (GW PhD ’23) also helped make this annual event a highlight for the D.C. economics community.
Summit Joshi (GW Econ) and Hector Tzavellas (GW PhD ’23) also helped make this annual event a highlight for the D.C. economics community.
October 20, 2025 at 5:38 PM
We’re proud to see Chao Wei (of GWU Economics & CER) play a key role as one of WANES’s original founders.
Summit Joshi (GW Econ) and Hector Tzavellas (GW PhD ’23) also helped make this annual event a highlight for the D.C. economics community.
Summit Joshi (GW Econ) and Hector Tzavellas (GW PhD ’23) also helped make this annual event a highlight for the D.C. economics community.
On Oct 11, members of the GWU Economics department Center for Economic Research joined the 2nd annual Washington Area Network Economics Symposium (WANES), hosted by Virginia Tech — connecting researchers studying how networks shape the economy.
#Economics #NetworkEconomics #CER
#Economics #NetworkEconomics #CER
October 20, 2025 at 5:37 PM
On Oct 11, members of the GWU Economics department Center for Economic Research joined the 2nd annual Washington Area Network Economics Symposium (WANES), hosted by Virginia Tech — connecting researchers studying how networks shape the economy.
#Economics #NetworkEconomics #CER
#Economics #NetworkEconomics #CER
This research underscores the importance of central bank communication and shows how SEP releases contribute to what markets interpret as monetary policy “surprises.” A fascinating discussion on how information effects, not just rate changes, drive market dynamics.
October 17, 2025 at 6:32 PM
This research underscores the importance of central bank communication and shows how SEP releases contribute to what markets interpret as monetary policy “surprises.” A fascinating discussion on how information effects, not just rate changes, drive market dynamics.
- Monetary policy surprises are larger at SEP meetings than non-SEP meetings.
- Up to 1/2 of the variation is explained by SEP surprises, highlighting how Fed projections convey info.
- Once SEP surprises are accounted for, differences in policy shocks between SEP & non-SEP meetings disappear.
- Up to 1/2 of the variation is explained by SEP surprises, highlighting how Fed projections convey info.
- Once SEP surprises are accounted for, differences in policy shocks between SEP & non-SEP meetings disappear.
October 17, 2025 at 6:32 PM
- Monetary policy surprises are larger at SEP meetings than non-SEP meetings.
- Up to 1/2 of the variation is explained by SEP surprises, highlighting how Fed projections convey info.
- Once SEP surprises are accounted for, differences in policy shocks between SEP & non-SEP meetings disappear.
- Up to 1/2 of the variation is explained by SEP surprises, highlighting how Fed projections convey info.
- Once SEP surprises are accounted for, differences in policy shocks between SEP & non-SEP meetings disappear.
The paper examines how the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — released at select FOMC meetings — shapes financial market reactions. Using high-frequency data and a new SEP surprise measure from Bloomberg surveys, the authors show:
October 17, 2025 at 6:31 PM
The paper examines how the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — released at select FOMC meetings — shapes financial market reactions. Using high-frequency data and a new SEP surprise measure from Bloomberg surveys, the authors show:
Yesterday, our H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting hosted Andrew B. Martinez (American University) and CER member Tara Sinclair (George Washington University), who presented their paper “When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises.”
October 17, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Yesterday, our H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting hosted Andrew B. Martinez (American University) and CER member Tara Sinclair (George Washington University), who presented their paper “When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises.”
On Wednesday 10/8, our Macro-International research area hosted Ricardo Alves Monteiro (IMF) for a seminar. He presented exciting work on the macroeconomic implications of different types of sovereign debt auctions.
ralvesmonteiro.github.io/assets/paper...
#sovereigndebt #auctions
ralvesmonteiro.github.io/assets/paper...
#sovereigndebt #auctions
October 10, 2025 at 3:18 PM
On Wednesday 10/8, our Macro-International research area hosted Ricardo Alves Monteiro (IMF) for a seminar. He presented exciting work on the macroeconomic implications of different types of sovereign debt auctions.
ralvesmonteiro.github.io/assets/paper...
#sovereigndebt #auctions
ralvesmonteiro.github.io/assets/paper...
#sovereigndebt #auctions
In a world of loneliness epidemics, as coined by the U.S. surgeon general, how do we make more friends? On Monday October 6th, Professor Amanda Pallais, Professor of Economics at Harvard University visited us as part of our ongoing microeconomic seminar series to discuss.
October 8, 2025 at 5:33 PM
In a world of loneliness epidemics, as coined by the U.S. surgeon general, how do we make more friends? On Monday October 6th, Professor Amanda Pallais, Professor of Economics at Harvard University visited us as part of our ongoing microeconomic seminar series to discuss.