Important Note: The by-election tracker displayed is a projection and should be viewed as a likely modeled outcome based largely on available public data. Please remember that by-elections are highly unpredictable, and actual results may vary outside predicted Margins of Error.

As with all my maps, you can find this on my Wikipedia user page and it has been added to the Elmwood-Transcona by-election Wiki page. Thanks for reading!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:CD...

Elmwood-Transcona is known for being a working-class riding, and the CPC candidate being a union member helped in this aspect of taking NDP support. This riding will be one to watch to see if now incumbent MP Leila Dance can hold on in what could be a rematch next year.

dynamic of direct LIB -> NDP flipping, as opposed to the more common LIB -> CON vote switching. The NDP managed to sop up much of the scattered Liberal vote but subsequently lost a lot of NDP voters to the CPC.

The Liberals collapsed like in LEV, losing a whopping 2/3 of their 2021 support. Their previous support was mainly centred around Elmwood and the southern parts of the riding. Looking at the poll-by-poll data, a lot of that support swung to the NDP, which shows an interesting

The NDP has historically held a pretty firm grip on the west side of the riding (Elmwood and Rossmere), which is closer to downtown and their other seat in the city, Winnipeg Centre, but this slipped in the by-election, losing a significant amount of polling stations.

The NDP saw their support decline relatively uniformly across the riding from the 2021 results, losing hold on many former NDP polls in the central part (around Peguis) and the eastern part (Transcona), where Conservatives both federally and provincially enjoy a pool of support.

The Conservatives came close to snatching this seat as their polls shot up and rode high after the Toronto-St. Paul's flip. Unfortunately for them, their weak performance in 2021 with controversial candidate Rejeanne Caron likely hurt their chances of taking this seat.

Important Note: The by-election tracker displayed is a projection and should be viewed as a likely modeled outcome based largely on available public data. Please remember that by-elections are highly unpredictable, and actual results may vary outside predicted Margins of Error.

The last time the CPC lost a by-election was in 2017, South Surrey-White Rock. The Conservatives went down slightly in vote share in the NDG-Westmount, Oxford, and Winnipeg South Centre by-elections all in 2023, and underperforming in Mississauga-Lakeshore in 2022

As always, you can find this map on my Wikipedia user page, and it has been uploaded to the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election Wiki page.

Thank you for reading and work on the Elmwood-Transcona by-election map is already underway.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:CD...

This by-election spells trouble for Trudeau as he's now lost two strong forts in both of the biggest pools of Liberal support in the entire country. The Liberal collapse in Trudeau's backyard could begin to bite his recent 'L'État, c'est moi' attitude to the Prime Ministership.

The riding had a deep regional divide between the Liberals and the NDP, which allowed the Bloc to fill the void of second place on opposite sides of the riding, along with seeping up scattering Liberal support in the central and northwestern parts of the riding (around Émard).

The NDP saw their highest support in the north of the riding (Verdun) near where their candidate represents on the City Council. Inversely, the Liberals saw their support manage to hold in the south of the riding (LaSalle), also where their candidate represents on the Council.

compared to TSP where the Conservatives were the ones gaining at the expense of both the Liberals and the NDP. However, it obviously goes without saying that the political dynamics are wildly different from those in Toronto to those in Montreal.

This by-election is arguably seen as an even more extreme, Montreal, version of Toronto-St. Paul's: popular Liberal leaving, anger around the local Liberal candidate and organization, and the LBC giving workers headaches. Unlike TSP, the Liberals collapsed hugely on their own,

While the Bloc and NDP both gained about 6% of the vote from 2021, the Liberals collapsed, losing over 15% of their previous support. Conservatives also managed to earn 4% more than in the last election. The Greens managed to halve their support from their pitiful 2021 result.

The by-election had a turnout of 41%, high for typical by-election standards (usually ~30%); neighbouring NDG-Wstmt had a turnout below 30% in 2023. The Bloc won in this seat with a margin of nearly 1% over the Liberals, who fell to second, with the NDP coming in a tight third.