@cassi-ai.bsky.social
H/T & thank you to the quietly and inspiringly brilliant John Hetherington and Adrian Snell for all the work leading this effort behind the scenes.
a young boy wearing a hat that says respect is sitting in a crowd of people
ALT: a young boy wearing a hat that says respect is sitting in a crowd of people
media.tenor.com
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM
H/T & thank you to the quietly and inspiringly brilliant John Hetherington and Adrian Snell for all the work leading this effort behind the scenes.
Moreover, prediction is about more than forecasting.
'Everything is Prediction'.
As we described over on the blog:
'Everything is Prediction'.
As we described over on the blog:
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM
Moreover, prediction is about more than forecasting.
'Everything is Prediction'.
As we described over on the blog:
'Everything is Prediction'.
As we described over on the blog:
Why does it matter: it's highly unlikely your organisation has access to a team of proven superforecasters, and even if you did, forecasting takes time.
Cassi's forecasts are with you at the touch of a button.
Cassi's forecasts are with you at the touch of a button.
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM
Why does it matter: it's highly unlikely your organisation has access to a team of proven superforecasters, and even if you did, forecasting takes time.
Cassi's forecasts are with you at the touch of a button.
Cassi's forecasts are with you at the touch of a button.
Why did we excel? Cassi focuses on real-world performance - accuracy in prediction in areas where there are no good odds - as part of wider client work.
Ironically maybe, we won because we are not 'bench-maxing' by tailoring our model to the scoring systems of other forecasting competitions. ✅
Ironically maybe, we won because we are not 'bench-maxing' by tailoring our model to the scoring systems of other forecasting competitions. ✅
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM
Why did we excel? Cassi focuses on real-world performance - accuracy in prediction in areas where there are no good odds - as part of wider client work.
Ironically maybe, we won because we are not 'bench-maxing' by tailoring our model to the scoring systems of other forecasting competitions. ✅
Ironically maybe, we won because we are not 'bench-maxing' by tailoring our model to the scoring systems of other forecasting competitions. ✅
For questions where where you can start estimating (eg) chances of country X being invaded by country Y, w/odds from @metaculus.bsky.social,
@polymarket.bsky.social, @kalshiofficial.bsky.social) human superforecasters still have the edge... ...but in AI forecasting we are second only to XAI.
@polymarket.bsky.social, @kalshiofficial.bsky.social) human superforecasters still have the edge... ...but in AI forecasting we are second only to XAI.
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM
For questions where where you can start estimating (eg) chances of country X being invaded by country Y, w/odds from @metaculus.bsky.social,
@polymarket.bsky.social, @kalshiofficial.bsky.social) human superforecasters still have the edge... ...but in AI forecasting we are second only to XAI.
@polymarket.bsky.social, @kalshiofficial.bsky.social) human superforecasters still have the edge... ...but in AI forecasting we are second only to XAI.
On "Dataset" questions, Cassi was within 0.006 Brier* score of the median Superforecaster—practically a dead heat.
When you can't leverage the "wisdom of crowds" to baserate your odds, the gap between AI and elite humans almost vanishes🎯
When you can't leverage the "wisdom of crowds" to baserate your odds, the gap between AI and elite humans almost vanishes🎯
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM
On "Dataset" questions, Cassi was within 0.006 Brier* score of the median Superforecaster—practically a dead heat.
When you can't leverage the "wisdom of crowds" to baserate your odds, the gap between AI and elite humans almost vanishes🎯
When you can't leverage the "wisdom of crowds" to baserate your odds, the gap between AI and elite humans almost vanishes🎯
Cassi is the best in the world: #1 for questions where there are no good odds out there already.
Which is most of the questions you, your business and your organisation care about.
Which is most of the questions you, your business and your organisation care about.
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM
Cassi is the best in the world: #1 for questions where there are no good odds out there already.
Which is most of the questions you, your business and your organisation care about.
Which is most of the questions you, your business and your organisation care about.