Carbon Acumen
@carbonacumen.bsky.social
Market intelligence into Renewable & Clean Fuel Standards
Read: carbonacumen.substack.com
Read: carbonacumen.substack.com
Putting my Q1 2025 LCFS Look Ahead for my ZEITGEIST members. Tuned my BBD blend model which has a 99% correlation to CARB data.
July 23, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Putting my Q1 2025 LCFS Look Ahead for my ZEITGEIST members. Tuned my BBD blend model which has a 99% correlation to CARB data.
Mainstream media: "EV sales are down in California!!"
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
July 23, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Mainstream media: "EV sales are down in California!!"
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
Californians continue to purchase more efficient drivetrains at a record pace ⚡️🚗⛽️
July 22, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Californians continue to purchase more efficient drivetrains at a record pace ⚡️🚗⛽️
June RFS Article is out
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
July 21, 2025 at 9:58 PM
June RFS Article is out
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
Although US Renewable Diesel (RD) and Biodiesel (Bio) production + imports surpassed RFS compliance in 23/24, 45z of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has kept imports at levels not seen since 2012.
July 20, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Although US Renewable Diesel (RD) and Biodiesel (Bio) production + imports surpassed RFS compliance in 23/24, 45z of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has kept imports at levels not seen since 2012.
Want to have an estimate of where the Canada CFR credit bank might be? Read the latest article😉
July 16, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Want to have an estimate of where the Canada CFR credit bank might be? Read the latest article😉
The full annual Canada CFR credit generation has not been published yet but the limited quarterly dataset has category 2 credit generation up 53% YoY.
July 15, 2025 at 1:17 PM
The full annual Canada CFR credit generation has not been published yet but the limited quarterly dataset has category 2 credit generation up 53% YoY.
Renewable Diesel (RD) margin indicators published by P66 and Valero aren't looking 🔥
July 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Renewable Diesel (RD) margin indicators published by P66 and Valero aren't looking 🔥
LCFS price cap has been removed from SB237 in California Assembly
July 11, 2025 at 1:48 PM
LCFS price cap has been removed from SB237 in California Assembly
Gasoline demand in California is down 2.5% since 2023 as VMT is up. That blue line is likely below 800 kbpd and definitely below it on an average basis. More refineries will announce closure.
July 10, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Gasoline demand in California is down 2.5% since 2023 as VMT is up. That blue line is likely below 800 kbpd and definitely below it on an average basis. More refineries will announce closure.
There is another organization calling out the overcapacity of California refineries, the environmental justice (EJ) group Communities for a Better Environment (CBE).
July 10, 2025 at 7:47 PM
There is another organization calling out the overcapacity of California refineries, the environmental justice (EJ) group Communities for a Better Environment (CBE).
Last week, the week leading up to the 4th of July, California refineries produced 782 kbpd of gasoline. The least amount of gasoline since mid-April. I guess that's what happens when a record amount of imports have flooded the West Coast.
July 10, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Last week, the week leading up to the 4th of July, California refineries produced 782 kbpd of gasoline. The least amount of gasoline since mid-April. I guess that's what happens when a record amount of imports have flooded the West Coast.
cCarbon is predicting a LCFS bank drawdown of nearly 5 million MT in Q3 once the new LCFS amendments kick in. Bold call.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
July 6, 2025 at 3:43 AM
cCarbon is predicting a LCFS bank drawdown of nearly 5 million MT in Q3 once the new LCFS amendments kick in. Bold call.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
Why is gasoline consumption down in California but vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is up?
June 20, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Why is gasoline consumption down in California but vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is up?
Has California Carbon Policy increased the price of gasoline in California? Yes
Has California Carbon Policy increased the price of gasoline in California in 2025? NO ⛽️🚗
Has California Carbon Policy increased the price of gasoline in California in 2025? NO ⛽️🚗
June 20, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Has California Carbon Policy increased the price of gasoline in California? Yes
Has California Carbon Policy increased the price of gasoline in California in 2025? NO ⛽️🚗
Has California Carbon Policy increased the price of gasoline in California in 2025? NO ⛽️🚗
Are gasoline prices going up by 65 cents per gallon in California come July 1st due to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)?
Doubt it. Current costs are 8 cents and have never been about 25 cents per gallon
Doubt it. Current costs are 8 cents and have never been about 25 cents per gallon
June 20, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Are gasoline prices going up by 65 cents per gallon in California come July 1st due to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)?
Doubt it. Current costs are 8 cents and have never been about 25 cents per gallon
Doubt it. Current costs are 8 cents and have never been about 25 cents per gallon
With California gasoline prices $1.00-$1.50 over the national, why aren't refineries in California making more CARBOB?
June 20, 2025 at 5:41 PM
With California gasoline prices $1.00-$1.50 over the national, why aren't refineries in California making more CARBOB?
Part 3...$100 million, prob publish it in August
June 19, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Part 3...$100 million, prob publish it in August
Updated the LCFS "Circle of Idiocracy"
June 18, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Updated the LCFS "Circle of Idiocracy"
The LCFS "Circle of Idiocracy"
June 17, 2025 at 10:27 PM
The LCFS "Circle of Idiocracy"
California carbon policy cost on gasoline has a 71% correlation to the pump price of Reg UNL in the state ⛽️🚗
June 17, 2025 at 2:02 PM
California carbon policy cost on gasoline has a 71% correlation to the pump price of Reg UNL in the state ⛽️🚗
The cost of California carbon policies (LCFS, C&T) is the lowest it has been since 2019 at under 30 cpg ⛽️🚗
June 17, 2025 at 6:31 AM
The cost of California carbon policies (LCFS, C&T) is the lowest it has been since 2019 at under 30 cpg ⛽️🚗
During the special session regarding California gasoline prices, essentially everyone was not happy about importing crude oil from Iraq. But this is not a new phenomena as California refiners have been importing Iraqi oil equivalent to 10-15% of inputs for some time.
June 17, 2025 at 5:29 AM
During the special session regarding California gasoline prices, essentially everyone was not happy about importing crude oil from Iraq. But this is not a new phenomena as California refiners have been importing Iraqi oil equivalent to 10-15% of inputs for some time.
The special session to deal with California gasoline prices largely focused on storage as it relates to price spikes. However, you have to factor in production along with crude inventories to have a sense if the supply chain if able to handle a dip in gasoline inventory. ⛽️🚗
June 16, 2025 at 9:23 PM
The special session to deal with California gasoline prices largely focused on storage as it relates to price spikes. However, you have to factor in production along with crude inventories to have a sense if the supply chain if able to handle a dip in gasoline inventory. ⛽️🚗
California receives gasoline imports from refineries in Washington state where gasoline demand has dropped 12% in 5 years⛽️🚗
June 16, 2025 at 6:49 PM
California receives gasoline imports from refineries in Washington state where gasoline demand has dropped 12% in 5 years⛽️🚗