Carbon Acumen
@carbonacumen.bsky.social
Market intelligence into Renewable & Clean Fuel Standards
Read: carbonacumen.substack.com
Read: carbonacumen.substack.com
Due to low engagement from this platform. I have decided to leave. See y'all!
a man in a suit and tie is standing at a counter
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing at a counter
media.tenor.com
July 24, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Due to low engagement from this platform. I have decided to leave. See y'all!
Valero operating income since 2011 by biz segment:
Gulf Coast: $41.2 billion
Mid-Con: $16.4 billion
North Atlantic: $15.5 billion
Renewable Diesel: $4.3 billion
Ethanol: $3.8 billion
West Coast: $2.3 billion
Gulf Coast: $41.2 billion
Mid-Con: $16.4 billion
North Atlantic: $15.5 billion
Renewable Diesel: $4.3 billion
Ethanol: $3.8 billion
West Coast: $2.3 billion
July 24, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Valero operating income since 2011 by biz segment:
Gulf Coast: $41.2 billion
Mid-Con: $16.4 billion
North Atlantic: $15.5 billion
Renewable Diesel: $4.3 billion
Ethanol: $3.8 billion
West Coast: $2.3 billion
Gulf Coast: $41.2 billion
Mid-Con: $16.4 billion
North Atlantic: $15.5 billion
Renewable Diesel: $4.3 billion
Ethanol: $3.8 billion
West Coast: $2.3 billion
Putting my Q1 2025 LCFS Look Ahead for my ZEITGEIST members. Tuned my BBD blend model which has a 99% correlation to CARB data.
July 23, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Putting my Q1 2025 LCFS Look Ahead for my ZEITGEIST members. Tuned my BBD blend model which has a 99% correlation to CARB data.
Mainstream media: "EV sales are down in California!!"
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
July 23, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Mainstream media: "EV sales are down in California!!"
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
(checking data)... 🧐 🤔
Californians continue to purchase more efficient drivetrains at a record pace ⚡️🚗⛽️
July 22, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Californians continue to purchase more efficient drivetrains at a record pace ⚡️🚗⛽️
June RFS Article is out
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
July 21, 2025 at 9:58 PM
June RFS Article is out
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
Although US Renewable Diesel (RD) and Biodiesel (Bio) production + imports surpassed RFS compliance in 23/24, 45z of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has kept imports at levels not seen since 2012.
July 20, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Although US Renewable Diesel (RD) and Biodiesel (Bio) production + imports surpassed RFS compliance in 23/24, 45z of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has kept imports at levels not seen since 2012.
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• LCFS Grid CI Avg
• EVs used to Calculate Daily Avg kWh
• Daily Avg Charging Rate
• LRT Registered EVs vs Base Crediting EVs
• LCFS Base Credits vs LCFS Price
• California Clean Fuel Reward Program Missing $?
• LCFS Grid CI Avg
• EVs used to Calculate Daily Avg kWh
• Daily Avg Charging Rate
• LRT Registered EVs vs Base Crediting EVs
• LCFS Base Credits vs LCFS Price
• California Clean Fuel Reward Program Missing $?
July 18, 2025 at 10:06 PM
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• LCFS Grid CI Avg
• EVs used to Calculate Daily Avg kWh
• Daily Avg Charging Rate
• LRT Registered EVs vs Base Crediting EVs
• LCFS Base Credits vs LCFS Price
• California Clean Fuel Reward Program Missing $?
• LCFS Grid CI Avg
• EVs used to Calculate Daily Avg kWh
• Daily Avg Charging Rate
• LRT Registered EVs vs Base Crediting EVs
• LCFS Base Credits vs LCFS Price
• California Clean Fuel Reward Program Missing $?
Californians paid an extra $300 million due to how the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is passed down to consumers through OPIS pricing methodology.
I am glad Politico reported on this issue.
CARB, CEC, Gov office are now aware of it. What is to come of the $300 million?
I am glad Politico reported on this issue.
CARB, CEC, Gov office are now aware of it. What is to come of the $300 million?
COLUMN: Newsom is worried gas prices will go up. They already did — and no one noticed, writes our Debra Kahn.
How Newsom Hiked Fuel Prices — and Got Away With It
Rhetoric and reality are almost entirely divorced in California's gas-price wars.
www.politico.com
July 17, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Californians paid an extra $300 million due to how the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is passed down to consumers through OPIS pricing methodology.
I am glad Politico reported on this issue.
CARB, CEC, Gov office are now aware of it. What is to come of the $300 million?
I am glad Politico reported on this issue.
CARB, CEC, Gov office are now aware of it. What is to come of the $300 million?
Want to have an estimate of where the Canada CFR credit bank might be? Read the latest article😉
July 16, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Want to have an estimate of where the Canada CFR credit bank might be? Read the latest article😉
The full annual Canada CFR credit generation has not been published yet but the limited quarterly dataset has category 2 credit generation up 53% YoY.
July 15, 2025 at 1:17 PM
The full annual Canada CFR credit generation has not been published yet but the limited quarterly dataset has category 2 credit generation up 53% YoY.
Renewable Diesel (RD) margin indicators published by P66 and Valero aren't looking 🔥
July 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Renewable Diesel (RD) margin indicators published by P66 and Valero aren't looking 🔥
The Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) data is most incomplete dataset in the LCFS world out there.
Total Credits: ❌
Total Deficits: ❌
Total Fuel: ❌
Total Biodiesel: ❌
Total RD: ❌
Total RNG/Biogas: ❌
Any Electricity (EVs): ❌
Total Ethanol: ✅
RD+Bio imports: ✅
Total Credits: ❌
Total Deficits: ❌
Total Fuel: ❌
Total Biodiesel: ❌
Total RD: ❌
Total RNG/Biogas: ❌
Any Electricity (EVs): ❌
Total Ethanol: ✅
RD+Bio imports: ✅
July 12, 2025 at 12:45 PM
The Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) data is most incomplete dataset in the LCFS world out there.
Total Credits: ❌
Total Deficits: ❌
Total Fuel: ❌
Total Biodiesel: ❌
Total RD: ❌
Total RNG/Biogas: ❌
Any Electricity (EVs): ❌
Total Ethanol: ✅
RD+Bio imports: ✅
Total Credits: ❌
Total Deficits: ❌
Total Fuel: ❌
Total Biodiesel: ❌
Total RD: ❌
Total RNG/Biogas: ❌
Any Electricity (EVs): ❌
Total Ethanol: ✅
RD+Bio imports: ✅
LCFS price cap has been removed from SB237 in California Assembly
July 11, 2025 at 1:48 PM
LCFS price cap has been removed from SB237 in California Assembly
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• CARBOB Production + Int’l Imports vs Retail Demand
• California Reg UNL FOB vs Street Price
• PADD 5 RD Shipments & Availability
• Monthly Feedstock Imports
• Monthly Feedstock Imports: SF vs Gulf Coast
• CARBOB Production + Int’l Imports vs Retail Demand
• California Reg UNL FOB vs Street Price
• PADD 5 RD Shipments & Availability
• Monthly Feedstock Imports
• Monthly Feedstock Imports: SF vs Gulf Coast
July 11, 2025 at 4:55 AM
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• CARBOB Production + Int’l Imports vs Retail Demand
• California Reg UNL FOB vs Street Price
• PADD 5 RD Shipments & Availability
• Monthly Feedstock Imports
• Monthly Feedstock Imports: SF vs Gulf Coast
• CARBOB Production + Int’l Imports vs Retail Demand
• California Reg UNL FOB vs Street Price
• PADD 5 RD Shipments & Availability
• Monthly Feedstock Imports
• Monthly Feedstock Imports: SF vs Gulf Coast
There is another organization calling out the overcapacity of California refineries, the environmental justice (EJ) group Communities for a Better Environment (CBE).
July 10, 2025 at 7:47 PM
There is another organization calling out the overcapacity of California refineries, the environmental justice (EJ) group Communities for a Better Environment (CBE).
Come 2026 I will only offer my ZEITGEIST subscription which includes
• Weekly Research Notes
• Special Reports & Forecasts
Highlights from
• Earnings Calls
• Renewable Fuel Standard
• California LCFS
• Oregon CFP
• Washington CFS
• British Columbia LCFS
• Canada CFR
• Weekly Research Notes
• Special Reports & Forecasts
Highlights from
• Earnings Calls
• Renewable Fuel Standard
• California LCFS
• Oregon CFP
• Washington CFS
• British Columbia LCFS
• Canada CFR
July 10, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Come 2026 I will only offer my ZEITGEIST subscription which includes
• Weekly Research Notes
• Special Reports & Forecasts
Highlights from
• Earnings Calls
• Renewable Fuel Standard
• California LCFS
• Oregon CFP
• Washington CFS
• British Columbia LCFS
• Canada CFR
• Weekly Research Notes
• Special Reports & Forecasts
Highlights from
• Earnings Calls
• Renewable Fuel Standard
• California LCFS
• Oregon CFP
• Washington CFS
• British Columbia LCFS
• Canada CFR
Last week, the week leading up to the 4th of July, California refineries produced 782 kbpd of gasoline. The least amount of gasoline since mid-April. I guess that's what happens when a record amount of imports have flooded the West Coast.
July 10, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Last week, the week leading up to the 4th of July, California refineries produced 782 kbpd of gasoline. The least amount of gasoline since mid-April. I guess that's what happens when a record amount of imports have flooded the West Coast.
cCarbon is predicting a LCFS bank drawdown of nearly 5 million MT in Q3 once the new LCFS amendments kick in. Bold call.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
July 6, 2025 at 3:43 AM
cCarbon is predicting a LCFS bank drawdown of nearly 5 million MT in Q3 once the new LCFS amendments kick in. Bold call.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
I doubt it happens but they have a webinar on July 15th to go over their model.
Since the end of March,
SF CARBOB🔻 70cpg
LA CARBOB 🔻45cpg
But gasoline prices in the regions haven't fully priced in the drop
SF Reg UNL🔻 25-30cpg
LA Reg UNL 🔻20-25cpg
Gasoline prices in California will likely continue to drop throughout the summer and into the fall
SF CARBOB🔻 70cpg
LA CARBOB 🔻45cpg
But gasoline prices in the regions haven't fully priced in the drop
SF Reg UNL🔻 25-30cpg
LA Reg UNL 🔻20-25cpg
Gasoline prices in California will likely continue to drop throughout the summer and into the fall
July 3, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Since the end of March,
SF CARBOB🔻 70cpg
LA CARBOB 🔻45cpg
But gasoline prices in the regions haven't fully priced in the drop
SF Reg UNL🔻 25-30cpg
LA Reg UNL 🔻20-25cpg
Gasoline prices in California will likely continue to drop throughout the summer and into the fall
SF CARBOB🔻 70cpg
LA CARBOB 🔻45cpg
But gasoline prices in the regions haven't fully priced in the drop
SF Reg UNL🔻 25-30cpg
LA Reg UNL 🔻20-25cpg
Gasoline prices in California will likely continue to drop throughout the summer and into the fall
California gasoline prices are 🔻7- 8 cpg from last week and 🔻 20 cpg from last month. So much for all the talk of the new LCFS amendments making gas price jump 65 cpg.
July 1, 2025 at 6:29 PM
California gasoline prices are 🔻7- 8 cpg from last week and 🔻 20 cpg from last month. So much for all the talk of the new LCFS amendments making gas price jump 65 cpg.
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal & SoCal CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal vs SoCal Gasoline Yield
• California Total Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal CARB Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal Other Diesel Production
• CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal & SoCal CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal vs SoCal Gasoline Yield
• California Total Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal CARB Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal Other Diesel Production
June 27, 2025 at 12:43 PM
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal & SoCal CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal vs SoCal Gasoline Yield
• California Total Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal CARB Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal Other Diesel Production
• CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal & SoCal CARBOB Production vs Demand
• NorCal vs SoCal Gasoline Yield
• California Total Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal CARB Diesel Production
• NorCal vs SoCal Other Diesel Production
Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel volumes are still 👇 with exports 👆
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
RFS: RIN Generation May '25 Highlights
There you are exports, I have been waiting on you
carbonacumen.substack.com
June 23, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel volumes are still 👇 with exports 👆
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
carbonacumen.substack.com/p/rfs-rin-ge...
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• CA Retail Demand, Exports Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Seasonality
• CA Quarterly Taxable CARBOB Demand
• UCO Monthly Imports
• SF Bay vs Gulf Coast Monthly Feedstock Imports
• CA Retail Demand, Exports Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Seasonality
• CA Quarterly Taxable CARBOB Demand
• UCO Monthly Imports
• SF Bay vs Gulf Coast Monthly Feedstock Imports
June 20, 2025 at 8:22 PM
ZEITGEIST Weekly Research Notes topics this week:
• CA Retail Demand, Exports Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Seasonality
• CA Quarterly Taxable CARBOB Demand
• UCO Monthly Imports
• SF Bay vs Gulf Coast Monthly Feedstock Imports
• CA Retail Demand, Exports Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Range
• NorCal & SoCal Gasoline Export Seasonality
• CA Quarterly Taxable CARBOB Demand
• UCO Monthly Imports
• SF Bay vs Gulf Coast Monthly Feedstock Imports
Why is gasoline consumption down in California but vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is up?
June 20, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Why is gasoline consumption down in California but vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is up?