Callam Pickering
@callampickering.bsky.social
APAC senior economist at Indeed. Former RBA economist and economic journalist. Prolific graph maker, sports lover, avid reader and pretty opinionated.
The latest forecasts from the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy.
Trimmed mean inflation revised higher (3.2% in Dec-25 compared to 2.6% previously).
Unemployment rate revised higher (4.4% in Dec-25 compared to 4.3% previously). This one seems too optimistic to me!
Trimmed mean inflation revised higher (3.2% in Dec-25 compared to 2.6% previously).
Unemployment rate revised higher (4.4% in Dec-25 compared to 4.3% previously). This one seems too optimistic to me!
November 4, 2025 at 3:43 AM
The latest forecasts from the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy.
Trimmed mean inflation revised higher (3.2% in Dec-25 compared to 2.6% previously).
Unemployment rate revised higher (4.4% in Dec-25 compared to 4.3% previously). This one seems too optimistic to me!
Trimmed mean inflation revised higher (3.2% in Dec-25 compared to 2.6% previously).
Unemployment rate revised higher (4.4% in Dec-25 compared to 4.3% previously). This one seems too optimistic to me!
Australia's unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% in September, up from 4% at the end of last year.
And if you are wondering why it's because employment growth has slowed significantly. Up 116k from January to September this year, compared to 323k over the same period last year #ausbiz #auspol
And if you are wondering why it's because employment growth has slowed significantly. Up 116k from January to September this year, compared to 323k over the same period last year #ausbiz #auspol
October 16, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Australia's unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% in September and now sits well above the RBA's forecast of 4.3% by year end.
October 16, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Australia's unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% in September and now sits well above the RBA's forecast of 4.3% by year end.
The unemployment rate might still be low at 4.2% but the labour market hasn't impressed this year.
Employment is up just 103k this year, compared to +282k over the same period last year.
If that doesn't pick up soon, a spike in the unemployment rate is inevitable #ausbiz #auspol
Employment is up just 103k this year, compared to +282k over the same period last year.
If that doesn't pick up soon, a spike in the unemployment rate is inevitable #ausbiz #auspol
September 26, 2025 at 1:24 AM
August 14, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Industry wage growth ranges from 5% in the utilities sector down to 2.6% in financial & insurance services. Nationally wages rose 3.4% over the past year, with most industries >3% #ausbiz
August 13, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Industry wage growth ranges from 5% in the utilities sector down to 2.6% in financial & insurance services. Nationally wages rose 3.4% over the past year, with most industries >3% #ausbiz
Adjusted for inflation, Australian wages are around 5.8% below their peak.
And based on the latest RBA forecasts - released yesterday - we aren't expecting any further improvement this year or next.
And based on the latest RBA forecasts - released yesterday - we aren't expecting any further improvement this year or next.
August 13, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Adjusted for inflation, Australian wages are around 5.8% below their peak.
And based on the latest RBA forecasts - released yesterday - we aren't expecting any further improvement this year or next.
And based on the latest RBA forecasts - released yesterday - we aren't expecting any further improvement this year or next.
Australian wages rose by 0.8% in the June quarter and are 3.4% higher than a year ago.
By comparison, consumer prices have increased by 2% over the past year.
By comparison, consumer prices have increased by 2% over the past year.
August 13, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Australian wages rose by 0.8% in the June quarter and are 3.4% higher than a year ago.
By comparison, consumer prices have increased by 2% over the past year.
By comparison, consumer prices have increased by 2% over the past year.
US merchandise imports surged in the March quarter - in anticipation of higher tariffs - and have since fallen sharply.
Interestingly, US merchandise imports are pretty much in line with 2024 levels; fewer imports from China but more from other countries.
Interestingly, US merchandise imports are pretty much in line with 2024 levels; fewer imports from China but more from other countries.
August 12, 2025 at 4:55 AM
US merchandise imports surged in the March quarter - in anticipation of higher tariffs - and have since fallen sharply.
Interestingly, US merchandise imports are pretty much in line with 2024 levels; fewer imports from China but more from other countries.
Interestingly, US merchandise imports are pretty much in line with 2024 levels; fewer imports from China but more from other countries.
China's merchandise exports to the US have declined, but China has managed to offset that with exports elsewhere.
August 12, 2025 at 4:55 AM
China's merchandise exports to the US have declined, but China has managed to offset that with exports elsewhere.
According to the RBA's business liaison program, the biggest impediments to productivity growth are the regulatory environment, employee skills & availability and supply chain deficiencies.
And yet the debate is dominated by tweaks to tax policy #auspol
And yet the debate is dominated by tweaks to tax policy #auspol
August 12, 2025 at 4:49 AM
According to the RBA's business liaison program, the biggest impediments to productivity growth are the regulatory environment, employee skills & availability and supply chain deficiencies.
And yet the debate is dominated by tweaks to tax policy #auspol
And yet the debate is dominated by tweaks to tax policy #auspol
The latest economic forecasts from the RBA:
Unemployment and inflation forecasts unchanged from 3 months ago.
GDP growth 1.7% in Dec 2025 (vs 2.1% previously) and 2.1% in Dec 2026 (vs 2.2%).
Cash rate is assumed to drop to 2.9% in the Dec quarter next year, compared to 3.6% as of today #ausbiz
Unemployment and inflation forecasts unchanged from 3 months ago.
GDP growth 1.7% in Dec 2025 (vs 2.1% previously) and 2.1% in Dec 2026 (vs 2.2%).
Cash rate is assumed to drop to 2.9% in the Dec quarter next year, compared to 3.6% as of today #ausbiz
August 12, 2025 at 4:41 AM
The latest economic forecasts from the RBA:
Unemployment and inflation forecasts unchanged from 3 months ago.
GDP growth 1.7% in Dec 2025 (vs 2.1% previously) and 2.1% in Dec 2026 (vs 2.2%).
Cash rate is assumed to drop to 2.9% in the Dec quarter next year, compared to 3.6% as of today #ausbiz
Unemployment and inflation forecasts unchanged from 3 months ago.
GDP growth 1.7% in Dec 2025 (vs 2.1% previously) and 2.1% in Dec 2026 (vs 2.2%).
Cash rate is assumed to drop to 2.9% in the Dec quarter next year, compared to 3.6% as of today #ausbiz
Retail spending has increased 35% since the December quarter 2019.
But the volume of goods sold has been broadly unchanged in recent years, due to higher prices.
And volume per capita is almost 6% below its peak.
So we are spending more, but consuming less #ausbiz
But the volume of goods sold has been broadly unchanged in recent years, due to higher prices.
And volume per capita is almost 6% below its peak.
So we are spending more, but consuming less #ausbiz
July 31, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Retail spending has increased 35% since the December quarter 2019.
But the volume of goods sold has been broadly unchanged in recent years, due to higher prices.
And volume per capita is almost 6% below its peak.
So we are spending more, but consuming less #ausbiz
But the volume of goods sold has been broadly unchanged in recent years, due to higher prices.
And volume per capita is almost 6% below its peak.
So we are spending more, but consuming less #ausbiz
The price of services rose by 3.3% over the past year, compared to a 1.1% rise in the price of goods.
That's a good sign that domestic price pressures have eased.
That's a good sign that domestic price pressures have eased.
July 30, 2025 at 1:44 AM
The price of services rose by 3.3% over the past year, compared to a 1.1% rise in the price of goods.
That's a good sign that domestic price pressures have eased.
That's a good sign that domestic price pressures have eased.
One of my favourite inflation graphs!
The RBA has achieved its inflation target over the past decade and they've achieved it by pretty consistently missing the target most years.
Undershooting in the years before the pandemic and then overshooting during the cost-of-living crisis.
The RBA has achieved its inflation target over the past decade and they've achieved it by pretty consistently missing the target most years.
Undershooting in the years before the pandemic and then overshooting during the cost-of-living crisis.
July 30, 2025 at 1:40 AM
One of my favourite inflation graphs!
The RBA has achieved its inflation target over the past decade and they've achieved it by pretty consistently missing the target most years.
Undershooting in the years before the pandemic and then overshooting during the cost-of-living crisis.
The RBA has achieved its inflation target over the past decade and they've achieved it by pretty consistently missing the target most years.
Undershooting in the years before the pandemic and then overshooting during the cost-of-living crisis.
Trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred inflation measure - has increased by 2.7% over the past year.
The result is slightly stronger than the RBA's forecasts from May, but it should dip towards 2.5% next quarter.
Is that sufficient for the RBA to cut rates? Perhaps not on its own.
The result is slightly stronger than the RBA's forecasts from May, but it should dip towards 2.5% next quarter.
Is that sufficient for the RBA to cut rates? Perhaps not on its own.
July 30, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred inflation measure - has increased by 2.7% over the past year.
The result is slightly stronger than the RBA's forecasts from May, but it should dip towards 2.5% next quarter.
Is that sufficient for the RBA to cut rates? Perhaps not on its own.
The result is slightly stronger than the RBA's forecasts from May, but it should dip towards 2.5% next quarter.
Is that sufficient for the RBA to cut rates? Perhaps not on its own.
Headline monthly inflation eased to 2.1% in May. Lowest level since March 2021.
Underlying measures were a bit higher, with the trimmed mean measure at 2.4% and the headline ex. volatile items & travel at 2.6%.
Nothing there that'd stop the RBA from cutting rates again if they want #ausbiz
Underlying measures were a bit higher, with the trimmed mean measure at 2.4% and the headline ex. volatile items & travel at 2.6%.
Nothing there that'd stop the RBA from cutting rates again if they want #ausbiz
June 25, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Headline monthly inflation eased to 2.1% in May. Lowest level since March 2021.
Underlying measures were a bit higher, with the trimmed mean measure at 2.4% and the headline ex. volatile items & travel at 2.6%.
Nothing there that'd stop the RBA from cutting rates again if they want #ausbiz
Underlying measures were a bit higher, with the trimmed mean measure at 2.4% and the headline ex. volatile items & travel at 2.6%.
Nothing there that'd stop the RBA from cutting rates again if they want #ausbiz
And in the case of apprenticeships, the number of roles advertised is down around 80% from it's peak and has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.
June 5, 2025 at 12:47 AM
And in the case of apprenticeships, the number of roles advertised is down around 80% from it's peak and has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.
The job market for skilled entry-level roles has shifted, with demand for graduates and apprentices declining considerably over the past two years.
While graduate opportunities remain well above pre-pandemic levels, they were down 16% in early 2025 compared to the same period last year.
While graduate opportunities remain well above pre-pandemic levels, they were down 16% in early 2025 compared to the same period last year.
June 5, 2025 at 12:47 AM
The job market for skilled entry-level roles has shifted, with demand for graduates and apprentices declining considerably over the past two years.
While graduate opportunities remain well above pre-pandemic levels, they were down 16% in early 2025 compared to the same period last year.
While graduate opportunities remain well above pre-pandemic levels, they were down 16% in early 2025 compared to the same period last year.