Yes ADF

Thankfully today's attempted bombing was thwarted - either by security or the bomber unintentionally detonating herself prematurely. Regardless, a good reminder that though it is based in Congo, ISCAP still has its sights on conducting acts of terror in Uganda (and beyond).

I doubt IS officially claims today's bombing, primarily because it failed, but even if it was successful it involved a woman and IS doesn't typically claim those types of operations involving women (like it didn't claim the Goma bombing).

This is the second time ISCAP has used a woman in a suicide bombing, the first being an April 2022 suicide bombing in Goma, #DRC. This also marks the first *confirmed ISCAP attack (or at least attempted attack) in Uganda since Dec. 2023. *Not counting the false IS claims in '24.

11. To close, ISCAP has went through several ebbs and flows throughout the year, which is also reflected in its media. Though it had a record number of operational claims, its propaganda output returned to more normal numbers seen before 2023, though with some interesting changes.

10. Also a rare public admission that it is indeed taking heavy personnel losses due to Operation Shujaa: x.com/caleb_weiss7...

9. Similarly, ISCAP thru IS Central has been more open about its war against Christians in Congo, explicitly stating that though they do not wish to kill them (which also seems dubious), Christians can instead save themselves by converting or paying jizya. x.com/caleb_weiss7...

8. ISCAP also dropped some new media tactics in 2024, most notably now publicly showcasing its mass forced conversions of Christian abductees to Islam and framing it as da'wah. A practice we at Bridgeway previously wrote about. www.hudson.org/terrorism/cl...

7. But as we stated as a possibility to bounce back, ISCAP found weaknesses in Operation Shujaa - notably moving to Lubero and back into previously cleared areas of Rwenzori/Watalinga - and ISCAP witnessed a resurgence both on the ground and in the propaganda space.

6. In March 2024, @ryanmofarrell and I wrote at West Point's Sentinel on ISCAP's then-declining media capabilities - which at the time, were in a serious bind thanks to Uganda and Congo's Operation Shujaa. ctc.westpoint.edu/media-matter...

5. To note on the Uganda claims and photos, as I've previously stated here, the claims in UG from 2024 were all dubious and likely just propaganda. I could not corroborate a single claim from Uganda. Thus the alleged photos are also in question.

4. Some of the 2024 propaganda numbers are skewed as 66 photos were released from the jungle camps during the Eids, meaning 176 photos were from actual attacks. Again North Kivu led (with many again from Lubero), followed by Ituri, and then Uganda and Tshopo.

3. 242 photos, 0 videos (has not been a video released from ISCAP since 2022). Not the highest ever yearly media total - 2021 had 279 photos, 4 videos; 2022 had 256 photos, 9 videos - however, it far outpaces 2023 where they just released 92 photos total.

2. Roughly 60% of these were from Congo's North Kivu; ~38% from Ituri; and ~2% from Uganda or Congo's Tshopo Province. Of the North Kivu claims, ~40% of them were from Lubero where ISCAP has been rampaging.

Honestly think that the numerous potential negative societal implications the advancement of AI carries vastly outweighs any potential benefit.

I also think the point about JNIMs use of Chinese weapons as evidence of some sort of collaboration in this space is also weak when the Sahel is awash with Chinese weapons already in state armories, and especially without knowing the weapons the article is referring to

But yet this rumor has persisted for years despite little to no evidence. See a thread on this I've made before on Twitter: x.com/caleb_weiss7...