Brian Matilla
@bxmatilla.bsky.social
Meteorologist (RA) | Python-smithy on some days? | short-term, high-impact weather w/ CAMs | M.S. (2018) at @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social | Husband | Latino | Racing aficionado. All opinions my own & not my employer’s.
The Turkey Day fixings… will probably hit REM sleep sooner than typical.
Cheers all!
Cheers all!
November 28, 2025 at 12:16 AM
The Turkey Day fixings… will probably hit REM sleep sooner than typical.
Cheers all!
Cheers all!
Ahh, hail…
Ok then.
Ok then.
November 20, 2025 at 1:21 AM
Ahh, hail…
Ok then.
Ok then.
Prior to the shutdown, we had headshots redone for the CIWRO staff page. Before the actual shots, we could goof around with our name card, and apparently this won me a share of the “Best Mugshot Award”.
Definitely getting “exceeds expectations” on my annual performance review with that…
Definitely getting “exceeds expectations” on my annual performance review with that…
November 18, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Prior to the shutdown, we had headshots redone for the CIWRO staff page. Before the actual shots, we could goof around with our name card, and apparently this won me a share of the “Best Mugshot Award”.
Definitely getting “exceeds expectations” on my annual performance review with that…
Definitely getting “exceeds expectations” on my annual performance review with that…
Well alrighty then…
November 15, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Well alrighty then…
A bit faint, but definitely shades of pink in the sky tonight in central OK (probably a bit brighter with an actual camera)
November 12, 2025 at 2:35 AM
A bit faint, but definitely shades of pink in the sky tonight in central OK (probably a bit brighter with an actual camera)
This shutdown is abhorrent by any stretch of the imagination. We all collectively deserve so much better, especially those being severely impacted by this nonsense.
But “carrot and stick” to the nth degree is going to bite the Dems so hard on these proposed terms, and it’ll be deserved.
But “carrot and stick” to the nth degree is going to bite the Dems so hard on these proposed terms, and it’ll be deserved.
November 9, 2025 at 9:43 PM
This shutdown is abhorrent by any stretch of the imagination. We all collectively deserve so much better, especially those being severely impacted by this nonsense.
But “carrot and stick” to the nth degree is going to bite the Dems so hard on these proposed terms, and it’ll be deserved.
But “carrot and stick” to the nth degree is going to bite the Dems so hard on these proposed terms, and it’ll be deserved.
I mean hey, this isn’t half bad! 🌅
November 9, 2025 at 12:15 AM
I mean hey, this isn’t half bad! 🌅
If you’re going to be at the @alzassociation.bsky.social Walk to #ENDALZ in OKC tomorrow, be sure to look for this poster! Going all in on the Twisters inspiration!
October 31, 2025 at 10:20 PM
If you’re going to be at the @alzassociation.bsky.social Walk to #ENDALZ in OKC tomorrow, be sure to look for this poster! Going all in on the Twisters inspiration!
As of 11AM EDT, we bid a not so fond farewell to Melissa as it undergoes extratropical transition. The storm left a mesmerizing and destructive trail in its wake, and the lessons that we in the scientific community will be able to uncover in due time will help us understand more systems like this.
October 31, 2025 at 6:07 PM
As of 11AM EDT, we bid a not so fond farewell to Melissa as it undergoes extratropical transition. The storm left a mesmerizing and destructive trail in its wake, and the lessons that we in the scientific community will be able to uncover in due time will help us understand more systems like this.
Interaction with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba has done a number on Melissa, which is now offshore and racing towards the SE Bahamas and Turks & Caicos as a Category 2 hurricane. A short window for potential re-intensification exists as it makes its way through the southwestern Atlantic.
October 29, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Interaction with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba has done a number on Melissa, which is now offshore and racing towards the SE Bahamas and Turks & Caicos as a Category 2 hurricane. A short window for potential re-intensification exists as it makes its way through the southwestern Atlantic.
Melissa has now reemerged over open waters and is attempting to reorganize prior to landfall #2 over far eastern Cuba. Not much time to have a shot at significant strengthening before hurricane-force impacts begin to affect the "Oriente" provinces of Cuba tonight and into tomorrow morning.
October 29, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Melissa has now reemerged over open waters and is attempting to reorganize prior to landfall #2 over far eastern Cuba. Not much time to have a shot at significant strengthening before hurricane-force impacts begin to affect the "Oriente" provinces of Cuba tonight and into tomorrow morning.
As expected, terrain interaction has begun to affect Melissa, evidenced by the reduction of the eye and relatively warmer cloud tops in the inner core. The storm has also taken more of an eastward jog by a few miles, which subsequently will affect where it makes landfall over Cuba later tonight.
October 28, 2025 at 7:35 PM
As expected, terrain interaction has begun to affect Melissa, evidenced by the reduction of the eye and relatively warmer cloud tops in the inner core. The storm has also taken more of an eastward jog by a few miles, which subsequently will affect where it makes landfall over Cuba later tonight.
Per the NHC: Landfall.
New Hope, Jamaica.
Maximum sustained winds of 185 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb.
New Hope, Jamaica.
Maximum sustained winds of 185 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb.
October 28, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Per the NHC: Landfall.
New Hope, Jamaica.
Maximum sustained winds of 185 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb.
New Hope, Jamaica.
Maximum sustained winds of 185 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb.
Landfall declaration is imminent. Melissa's northern eyewall has come ashore, with the most intense winds yet to strike areas like Montego Bay on the northern side of the island. At the same time, areas just west and east of the eye will not get a reprieve from the violent conditions.
October 28, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Landfall declaration is imminent. Melissa's northern eyewall has come ashore, with the most intense winds yet to strike areas like Montego Bay on the northern side of the island. At the same time, areas just west and east of the eye will not get a reprieve from the violent conditions.
… Melissa is stronger still at the 10 AM update.
Minimum pressure of 892 mb
Max winds of 185 mph.
Minimum pressure of 892 mb
Max winds of 185 mph.
October 28, 2025 at 2:11 PM
… Melissa is stronger still at the 10 AM update.
Minimum pressure of 892 mb
Max winds of 185 mph.
Minimum pressure of 892 mb
Max winds of 185 mph.
And to think, the theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity in this area is somewhere around 875 mb (+/-), and Melissa is currently sporting observed pressures of roughly 892-893 mb…
Makes one wonder just how close to the physical limit Melissa will get. We’ll have a lot to learn from this one storm.
Makes one wonder just how close to the physical limit Melissa will get. We’ll have a lot to learn from this one storm.
October 28, 2025 at 1:53 PM
And to think, the theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity in this area is somewhere around 875 mb (+/-), and Melissa is currently sporting observed pressures of roughly 892-893 mb…
Makes one wonder just how close to the physical limit Melissa will get. We’ll have a lot to learn from this one storm.
Makes one wonder just how close to the physical limit Melissa will get. We’ll have a lot to learn from this one storm.
Final post from me tonight. Melissa is now definitively moving to the north/northeast. At its present heading, it's looking like a landfall near or just west of Treasure Beach.
Conditions will really deteriorate from here. My thoughts are with everyone on the island. Hang on, folks.
Conditions will really deteriorate from here. My thoughts are with everyone on the island. Hang on, folks.
October 28, 2025 at 5:26 AM
Final post from me tonight. Melissa is now definitively moving to the north/northeast. At its present heading, it's looking like a landfall near or just west of Treasure Beach.
Conditions will really deteriorate from here. My thoughts are with everyone on the island. Hang on, folks.
Conditions will really deteriorate from here. My thoughts are with everyone on the island. Hang on, folks.
902 mb and a 164/165 kt estimated maximum surface inbound/outbound wind on the most recent pass... Even when accounting a small deduction for surface friction, a 155 kt (180 mph) maximum wind estimate seems plausible for the next advisory should this be supported by the next recon pass. #Melissa
October 28, 2025 at 4:14 AM
902 mb and a 164/165 kt estimated maximum surface inbound/outbound wind on the most recent pass... Even when accounting a small deduction for surface friction, a 155 kt (180 mph) maximum wind estimate seems plausible for the next advisory should this be supported by the next recon pass. #Melissa
A final Dvorak-T# of 8.3...
The adjective impressive does not do it justice, and it's not hyperbole to suggest that mechanics within #Melissa could be the focus of future M.S/Ph.D. studies.
The adjective impressive does not do it justice, and it's not hyperbole to suggest that mechanics within #Melissa could be the focus of future M.S/Ph.D. studies.
October 28, 2025 at 2:37 AM
A final Dvorak-T# of 8.3...
The adjective impressive does not do it justice, and it's not hyperbole to suggest that mechanics within #Melissa could be the focus of future M.S/Ph.D. studies.
The adjective impressive does not do it justice, and it's not hyperbole to suggest that mechanics within #Melissa could be the focus of future M.S/Ph.D. studies.
Pretty harrowing recent image from #Melissa. That is a near-symmetric CDO with at least -80°C cloud top temperatures and a very polished eye.
A point to note though — the eye has continued to wobble around, and at least in the last hour or so, it’s unclear if there is appreciable forward motion.
A point to note though — the eye has continued to wobble around, and at least in the last hour or so, it’s unclear if there is appreciable forward motion.
October 28, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Pretty harrowing recent image from #Melissa. That is a near-symmetric CDO with at least -80°C cloud top temperatures and a very polished eye.
A point to note though — the eye has continued to wobble around, and at least in the last hour or so, it’s unclear if there is appreciable forward motion.
A point to note though — the eye has continued to wobble around, and at least in the last hour or so, it’s unclear if there is appreciable forward motion.
Based on data from this recent recon pass, as well as other commentary from experts here, it is fair game to suspect that #Melissa is finding a way to continue strengthening.
October 27, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Based on data from this recent recon pass, as well as other commentary from experts here, it is fair game to suspect that #Melissa is finding a way to continue strengthening.
A morning look at Major Hurricane #Melissa, the third Category 5 hurricane this season. The storm shows a continued trend of strengthening this morning, and is expected to begin its turn northward towards Jamaica in the next 6-12 hours.
October 27, 2025 at 1:43 PM
A morning look at Major Hurricane #Melissa, the third Category 5 hurricane this season. The storm shows a continued trend of strengthening this morning, and is expected to begin its turn northward towards Jamaica in the next 6-12 hours.
Latest reconnaissance mission into #Melissa...
Pressure is continuing to fall; now it is closer to 932-933 mb. Additionally, satellite imagery over the past hour has indicated more lightning activity in the eyewall, yet again signaling an ominous sign of a strengthening hurricane.
Pressure is continuing to fall; now it is closer to 932-933 mb. Additionally, satellite imagery over the past hour has indicated more lightning activity in the eyewall, yet again signaling an ominous sign of a strengthening hurricane.
October 26, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Latest reconnaissance mission into #Melissa...
Pressure is continuing to fall; now it is closer to 932-933 mb. Additionally, satellite imagery over the past hour has indicated more lightning activity in the eyewall, yet again signaling an ominous sign of a strengthening hurricane.
Pressure is continuing to fall; now it is closer to 932-933 mb. Additionally, satellite imagery over the past hour has indicated more lightning activity in the eyewall, yet again signaling an ominous sign of a strengthening hurricane.
Recent reconnaissance mission into Hurricane #Melissa indicates minimum pressures appear to have bottomed out at near 940 mb, which is a bit lower than at the 2 PM advisory. Wind profiles still justify ~140 mph maximum winds, but this trend in central pressure is indicative of resumed strengthening.
October 26, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Recent reconnaissance mission into Hurricane #Melissa indicates minimum pressures appear to have bottomed out at near 940 mb, which is a bit lower than at the 2 PM advisory. Wind profiles still justify ~140 mph maximum winds, but this trend in central pressure is indicative of resumed strengthening.
A post-sunrise view of Major Hurricane #Melissa, now a Category 4 hurricane. Pressure has lifted slightly since overnight, but is expected to continue strengthening today.
With a storm like this, the category associated loses meaning besides for record keeping. The impacts take on more pertinence.
With a storm like this, the category associated loses meaning besides for record keeping. The impacts take on more pertinence.
October 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
A post-sunrise view of Major Hurricane #Melissa, now a Category 4 hurricane. Pressure has lifted slightly since overnight, but is expected to continue strengthening today.
With a storm like this, the category associated loses meaning besides for record keeping. The impacts take on more pertinence.
With a storm like this, the category associated loses meaning besides for record keeping. The impacts take on more pertinence.