Tfw Rep. Shaw and the TN Holler guy are fighting.

Boys and girls, we’re cooked

Anyone who knows me knows I believe that immigration is a something that greatly benefits our country and I am happy to support.

However, if some facet of the broader immigration system is being used to suppress US wages and benefits, for those of all colors and creeds, we need to remedy that,

Me: mom, I want @aftynbehn.bsky.social

Mom: we have @aftynbehn.bsky.social at home

@aftynbehn.bsky.social at home:

As for Kamala, still issues, but not AS bad as out west. She’s seeing growth in the burbs, but not matching Trump’s. Again, completely failed to engage historically Dem metros. The failure to improve a ton in JC, a flippable small city, is particularly disappointing.

Digging into where Trump’s vote changed, pretty consistent growth, though this could be attributed to the national environment. Also demographics. Fast growing in the Knox/Chatt suburbs, slower/decrease in the Northeast/KY border.

Now for East TN. As you can see, not nearly the same kind of wild swings you see in the west. Seems to give credence to the idea that the GOP’s margins are pretty tapped out in the west. Not many swings that exceed the state and nation as a whole.

The change in # of votes Biden to Kamala. It tends to get better the more north and east you go, but nowhere is it *good.* Rural Dem turnout cratered. Dem town turnout fell so bad, it negated Trump’s issues.

There needs to be a plan to reverse this, particularly in the far southeast.

This is the change in # of Trump votes. Interestingly, it isn’t even that substantially, broadly around 5%-10%

What’s even more interesting is he cratered in rural towns. Atoka, Brownsville, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Madison, et al. Even most of Memphis and its burbs.

Might have helped Dems if not for…

So, I’ve been working on precinct level analysis of all of TN. Includes the shift in margin, Just finished up West TN, some interesting stuff 🧵

(Everything in incrimente of 5, work in progress, no key yet)