The analysis is based on the time lag between two sounds produced by gunfire: the “crack” produced by the bullet as it flies past at supersonic speed, and the “bang” produced by the gun itself.

The lag between the two can be used to estimate how far away the gun is from the recording device.

Two independent forensic audio experts told Sky News that the recording of the attack provided by PSRC shows that the first shots were fired from 40-50 metres away.

By the end of the video, the experts estimated, the shots were being fired from 12-18 metres away

The finding contradicts the IDF’s claim that there was “no firing from close distance”.

15 aid workers were killed in the attacks that morning.

Following my inquiries, the CIA has agreed to add a disclaimer to the data.

Probably few people will see it, however. Much of the damage has already been done.

Well, they didn't - it's a modelled estimate.

And crucially, all the data was collected (and the modelling performed) before the war began.

The 2% figure was calculated in *August 2023*.

The Bureau confirmed to me that estimates and projection do not consider any data after that time.

The CIA doesn't make it easy to find their source, but it's the US Census Bureau.

Here we see the same claim: that the population grew 2% in 2024.

How did the Census Bureau gather this data, given the conditions on the ground in Gaza?

The claim that Gaza's population grew by 2% this year is taken straight from the CIA's World Factbook.

This is a healthy growth rate, barely changed from the year before.

And notably the death rate is actually *lower* than before.

What's going on?

An IDF spokesperson said: “The IDF will act against Hamas wherever it operates, with full commitment to international law, while distinguishing between terrorists and civilians, and taking all feasible precautions to minimize harm to civilians”

In response to our findings, the UN told us it is already investigating 52 similar incidents in areas where the Israeli army told civilians it was safe to evacuate.

The blast came five days after the IDF released an interactive map of Gaza, which it said would help civilians avoid combat zones.

Sky found that Israel’s use of this map has been chaotic, with evacuation orders frequently contradicting themselves.

The IDF’s strikes in Deir al Balah, which it says were against military targets, came despite the IDF telling civilians that they could evacuate to the city the day before.

A senior UN official told Sky News he could think of “no rationale” for this.

Without access to the weapon remnants Sky News cannot say for sure who was responsible for the blast. 

Israel has said it was striking military targets in Deir al Balah that day. Sky has not seen any reports of other groups firing rockets in the area at that time.

Two independent experts told Sky that the extent of the damage, size of the rubble, lack of burn damage and apparent precision of the strike were consistent with an airstrike, not an misfired rocket.

Responding to our findings, the IDF did not deny it was responsible for the blast.

7/ Even if the war stopped tomorrow, it would take months to investigate and verify every strike. There could still be hundreds buried under the rubble.

That means we may not have a firm number for months, even years.

But the scale of death is clear.
news.sky.com/story/israel...

We've located a video to that expanded portion of the cemetery. It shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 family members, in mass graves.

Or take this cemetery in Deir al-Balah. Satellite imagery shows that the cemetery has been expanded.

A satellite photo from the same day shows the cemetery being expanded with a bulldozer.

6/ We can also see evidence for the scale of the deaths by looking at cemeteries, via satellite and social media.

A video uploaded to Snapchat on 19 Oct shows dozens of new, makeshift graves at a cemetery we located to eastern Gaza City.