The analysis is based on the time lag between two sounds produced by gunfire: the “crack” produced by the bullet as it flies past at supersonic speed, and the “bang” produced by the gun itself.

The lag between the two can be used to estimate how far away the gun is from the recording device.

Two independent forensic audio experts told Sky News that the recording of the attack provided by PSRC shows that the first shots were fired from 40-50 metres away.

By the end of the video, the experts estimated, the shots were being fired from 12-18 metres away

Well, they didn't - it's a modelled estimate.

And crucially, all the data was collected (and the modelling performed) before the war began.

The 2% figure was calculated in *August 2023*.

The Bureau confirmed to me that estimates and projection do not consider any data after that time.

The CIA doesn't make it easy to find their source, but it's the US Census Bureau.

Here we see the same claim: that the population grew 2% in 2024.

How did the Census Bureau gather this data, given the conditions on the ground in Gaza?

The claim that Gaza's population grew by 2% this year is taken straight from the CIA's World Factbook.

This is a healthy growth rate, barely changed from the year before.

And notably the death rate is actually *lower* than before.

What's going on?

This post is misinformation, and the CIA is to blame.

A lesson in data presentation🧵

We've located a video to that expanded portion of the cemetery. It shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 family members, in mass graves.

Or take this cemetery in Deir al-Balah. Satellite imagery shows that the cemetery has been expanded.

A satellite photo from the same day shows the cemetery being expanded with a bulldozer.

6/ We can also see evidence for the scale of the deaths by looking at cemeteries, via satellite and social media.

A video uploaded to Snapchat on 19 Oct shows dozens of new, makeshift graves at a cemetery we located to eastern Gaza City.

5/ Another plausibility check is to look at the only other source of data on deaths - the UN.

The UN has recorded 72 deaths among its staff, around 0.58% of all staff.

That's somewhat higher than the fatality rate the Ministry is reporting for all Gaza residents.

4/ Experts say that the Ministry numbers are plausible, based on the population density of the Gaza Strip and the scale of damage visible from space.

The yellow areas here are damage we detected via satellite: news.sky.com/story/gaza-w...

2/ The numbers from Gaza's Ministry of Health have historically been reliable, lining up with estimates later produced by the UN.