@budgetmodel.bsky.social
(3/3) For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker — Penn Wharton Budget Model
The Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker reports the federal government’s daily cash operations, including daily spending, receipts, and deficits.
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
September 15, 2025 at 3:07 PM
(3/3) For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
(2/3) For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
Tariff Simulator: Revenue and Prices — Penn Wharton Budget Model
Estimate changes in tax revenue by selecting from a wide range of different tariff options.
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
September 15, 2025 at 3:07 PM
(2/3) For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
(2/2) Most of the ERC was paid retroactively, well after pandemic-related economic disruptions had ended, limiting its effectiveness as a worker retention incentive. Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
The Cost of the Employee Retention Tax Credit — Penn Wharton Budget Model
PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected c...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
September 12, 2025 at 7:56 PM
(2/2) Most of the ERC was paid retroactively, well after pandemic-related economic disruptions had ended, limiting its effectiveness as a worker retention incentive. Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
(2/2) AI’s boost to 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth — Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually f...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
September 9, 2025 at 8:43 PM
(2/2) AI’s boost to 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
(3/4) Among major trading partners, China faces the highest tariffs, with effective rates reaching 39.8 percent in June.
Steel and aluminum products are the most heavily tariffed product category at 37.3 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 18.8 percent.
Steel and aluminum products are the most heavily tariffed product category at 37.3 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 18.8 percent.
August 15, 2025 at 2:08 PM
(3/4) Among major trading partners, China faces the highest tariffs, with effective rates reaching 39.8 percent in June.
Steel and aluminum products are the most heavily tariffed product category at 37.3 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 18.8 percent.
Steel and aluminum products are the most heavily tariffed product category at 37.3 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 18.8 percent.
(2/4) New tariffs have raised $58.5 billion in revenue between January 2025 and June 2025 before accounting for income and payroll tax offsets.
The average effective tariff rate increased to 9.14 percent in June, up from 2.2 percent in January.
The average effective tariff rate increased to 9.14 percent in June, up from 2.2 percent in January.
August 15, 2025 at 2:08 PM
(2/4) New tariffs have raised $58.5 billion in revenue between January 2025 and June 2025 before accounting for income and payroll tax offsets.
The average effective tariff rate increased to 9.14 percent in June, up from 2.2 percent in January.
The average effective tariff rate increased to 9.14 percent in June, up from 2.2 percent in January.
...(4/4) Apply by September 7, 2025:
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/certificate-...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/certificate-...
Certificate Program — Penn Wharton Budget Model
Penn Wharton Budget Model’s (PWBM) Certificate for Policy Professionals is geared toward congressional staffers and other public policy professionals who work in the Washington, DC area. The program w...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
August 4, 2025 at 8:40 PM
...(4/4) Apply by September 7, 2025:
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/certificate-...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/certificate-...
...(3/4) to assess a wide range of legislative proposals and analyses.
The program will be led by Professor Kent Smetters and features conversations with Wharton faculty, economic policy specialists, and academic experts.
The program will be led by Professor Kent Smetters and features conversations with Wharton faculty, economic policy specialists, and academic experts.
August 4, 2025 at 8:40 PM
...(3/4) to assess a wide range of legislative proposals and analyses.
The program will be led by Professor Kent Smetters and features conversations with Wharton faculty, economic policy specialists, and academic experts.
The program will be led by Professor Kent Smetters and features conversations with Wharton faculty, economic policy specialists, and academic experts.
...(2/4) Designed for Congressional staffers and other public policy professionals, this 6-session online program (October 17, 2025 – February 6, 2026) provides participants with a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy and the skills...
August 4, 2025 at 8:40 PM
...(2/4) Designed for Congressional staffers and other public policy professionals, this 6-session online program (October 17, 2025 – February 6, 2026) provides participants with a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy and the skills...
...(4/4) Even with new funds provided in the 2025 OBBBA, we estimate that permanent deportation would cost an additional $900 billion over the first 10 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects — Penn Wharton Budget Model
It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP, the capital stock, and labor supply, simply due to scale effects. But deportation can also reduce per-capita measu...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
July 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
...(4/4) Even with new funds provided in the 2025 OBBBA, we estimate that permanent deportation would cost an additional $900 billion over the first 10 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
... (3/4) If deportations are reversed after 4 years, authorized low-skilled workers will see their wages eventually fall by 0.6 percent relative to no mass deportations.
July 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
... (3/4) If deportations are reversed after 4 years, authorized low-skilled workers will see their wages eventually fall by 0.6 percent relative to no mass deportations.
...(2/4) Still, authorized low-skilled workers can see their wages increase by as much as 5 percent, but only if the deportation policy is permanently sustained after 4 years.
July 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
...(2/4) Still, authorized low-skilled workers can see their wages increase by as much as 5 percent, but only if the deportation policy is permanently sustained after 4 years.
...(2/2) GDP remains mostly flat, and wages fall by 0.3 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill: Illustrative Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects with Permanence — Penn Wharton Budget Model
If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 21.9 percent in 30 years. GDP remains mostly flat, and wag...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
May 28, 2025 at 10:03 PM
...(2/2) GDP remains mostly flat, and wages fall by 0.3 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
...(2/2) GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but the dynamic score is larger ($3.2 trillion) than the conventional. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
House Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects (May 22, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years. GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but ...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
May 23, 2025 at 5:03 PM
...(2/2) GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but the dynamic score is larger ($3.2 trillion) than the conventional. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
(3/3)...PWBM has projected that America will face certain risk of a fiscal crisis within the next two decades, eroding household purchasing power, unless action is taken to reduce federal deficits.
May 21, 2025 at 9:29 PM
(3/3)...PWBM has projected that America will face certain risk of a fiscal crisis within the next two decades, eroding household purchasing power, unless action is taken to reduce federal deficits.