@budgetmodel.bsky.social
PWBM has produced up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025 based on updated trade and tariff data recently released by the USITC. (1/3)
See details here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
See details here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated September 10, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025.
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
September 15, 2025 at 3:07 PM
PWBM has produced up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025 based on updated trade and tariff data recently released by the USITC. (1/3)
See details here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
See details here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected cost. (1/2)
September 12, 2025 at 7:56 PM
PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected cost. (1/2)
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. (1/2)
The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth — Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually f...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
September 9, 2025 at 8:43 PM
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. (1/2)
We use updated trade and tariff data released by the USITC to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through June 2025. (1/4)
August 15, 2025 at 2:08 PM
We use updated trade and tariff data released by the USITC to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through June 2025. (1/4)
It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP, the capital stock, and labor supply, simply due to scale effects. But deportation can also reduce per-capita measures, including GDP per capita, and the average wage rate... (1/4)
July 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP, the capital stock, and labor supply, simply due to scale effects. But deportation can also reduce per-capita measures, including GDP per capita, and the average wage rate... (1/4)
We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.5 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 in 10 years and falls by 4.6 in 30 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
Senate Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects — Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.5 trillion. GDP falls b...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
July 1, 2025 at 9:22 PM
We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.5 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 in 10 years and falls by 4.6 in 30 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 21.9 percent in 30 years...(1/2)
May 28, 2025 at 10:03 PM
If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 21.9 percent in 30 years...(1/2)
We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years.... (1/2)
May 23, 2025 at 5:03 PM
We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years.... (1/2)
Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that increasing the SALT limit from $30,000 to $40,000, with a phase-out starting at $500,000, will add another $109.1 billion in primary deficits over the 10-year budget window....(1/3)
May 21, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that increasing the SALT limit from $30,000 to $40,000, with a phase-out starting at $500,000, will add another $109.1 billion in primary deficits over the 10-year budget window....(1/3)
If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1% in 10 years and 24.3% in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5%. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window. #TCJA
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
House Reconciliation Bill: Illustrative Calculations with Permanence (May 20, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model
If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1 percent in 10 years and 24.3 percent in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5 percent. Dynam...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
May 20, 2025 at 7:35 PM
If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1% in 10 years and 24.3% in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5%. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window. #TCJA
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
House Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects (May 19, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savin...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
May 19, 2025 at 9:39 PM
We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...
Under current law, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire at the end of 2025, raising personal income tax rates back to 2017 levels. Some lawmakers propose extending the TCJA but with higher rates for high-income households. We consider three options...(1/4)
May 9, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Under current law, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire at the end of 2025, raising personal income tax rates back to 2017 levels. Some lawmakers propose extending the TCJA but with higher rates for high-income households. We consider three options...(1/4)
Our previous analysis demonstrated that the Trump Administration's major tax proposals would require expiration if combined with the FY2025 House budget reconciliation...(1/2)
May 5, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Our previous analysis demonstrated that the Trump Administration's major tax proposals would require expiration if combined with the FY2025 House budget reconciliation...(1/2)
Treasury data through April 28 shows that tax receipts are broadly in line with government projections made earlier this year, before the downsizing of the IRS was announced. Receipts from tariffs have significantly exceeded projections. (1/2)...
April 30, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Treasury data through April 28 shows that tax receipts are broadly in line with government projections made earlier this year, before the downsizing of the IRS was announced. Receipts from tariffs have significantly exceeded projections. (1/2)...
Excited to have @PWBM’s work featured in Knowledge at Wharton — covering the economic impact of proposed U.S. tariffs.
With insights from Kent Smetters on Wharton Business Daily: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-...
Read the full story: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-... (1/2)...
With insights from Kent Smetters on Wharton Business Daily: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-...
Read the full story: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-... (1/2)...
The Economic Impact of Tariffs
Sweeping tariffs would raise new revenue, but they would also depress GDP, wages, and Treasury bond demand and prices, according to the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model.
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
April 30, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Excited to have @PWBM’s work featured in Knowledge at Wharton — covering the economic impact of proposed U.S. tariffs.
With insights from Kent Smetters on Wharton Business Daily: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-...
Read the full story: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-... (1/2)...
With insights from Kent Smetters on Wharton Business Daily: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-...
Read the full story: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-... (1/2)...
Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) would reduce GDP by about 8% and wages by 7%... (1/2)
April 10, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) would reduce GDP by about 8% and wages by 7%... (1/2)
We evaluate two immigration policies that shift 10 percent of future low-skilled immigration toward either high-skilled immigrants broadly or only high-skilled STEM workers. The number of total immigrants remains the same under both policies.... (1/2)
March 27, 2025 at 5:00 PM
We evaluate two immigration policies that shift 10 percent of future low-skilled immigration toward either high-skilled immigrants broadly or only high-skilled STEM workers. The number of total immigrants remains the same under both policies.... (1/2)
Applications are now open for the Spring 2025 Wharton Public Policy Certificate Program!
Led by Prof. Kent Smetters, this program provides a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy....
Led by Prof. Kent Smetters, this program provides a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy....
January 28, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Applications are now open for the Spring 2025 Wharton Public Policy Certificate Program!
Led by Prof. Kent Smetters, this program provides a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy....
Led by Prof. Kent Smetters, this program provides a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy....