It’s nearly 2025, I don’t know what I want or need from strangers on a tech platform.

And then they would make sure they had projects in each of those 3 categories (and didn't just myopically focus on a single one).

Yet again, we live in unprecedented times. It's vital to take uncertainty seriously.

- Insurance policies: if the absolute worst did happen, what could we do now to be somewhat prepared?

- Big bets: what could we do, if we really leaned into it, that might shape the future in our favor?

- No regrets: what's something smart we should do no matter what happens next?

We also learned that, after they scanned the horizon for trends and forces, they would bucket their strategies into three categories:

But, it did help them avoid being trapped by the present. It opened executives' minds about what could happen, and that helped the organization stay more nimble.

One thing we learned is that, in all the years Shell did highly structured and rigorous scenario planning, not a single idea that came out of the process blew up. There was no big bang. Scenario planning didn't help them predict the future.

A couple years ago, we spoke to the folks who invented scenario planning at Shell and we learned a bunch from those conversations and applied it to the strategy work we were facilitating with our clients.

I had a moment with mine when I realized, "Oh, God, you're having to talk about the election all day, every day, and only make space for other people to have feelings about it."