Brad Shapiro
@btshapir.bsky.social
Marketing Professor @ChicagoBooth
Co-editor @QME
Optimist/Anti-Doomer
Co-editor @QME
Optimist/Anti-Doomer
Drink coffee and think about stuff
December 31, 2024 at 7:39 PM
Drink coffee and think about stuff
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
I don’t buy this interpretation. It’s the self-congratulatory sentiment that we are good people who care about others and they are bad people who don’t.
The pandemic forced Americans to think and act collectively and while there were amazing examples during peak COVID of all kinds of people doing just that, a majority of Americans came away thinking “that sucked; I don’t want to have think about other people.”
i think this is broadly true, a lot more acceptance of it across the board even though the vote totals are similar to 2016 www.politico.com/news/2024/12...
December 31, 2024 at 7:11 PM
I don’t buy this interpretation. It’s the self-congratulatory sentiment that we are good people who care about others and they are bad people who don’t.
I'm not crying you're crying
December 31, 2024 at 6:52 PM
I'm not crying you're crying
A few more hours left in the year.
Hi folks, as we approach the end of the year and you consider end-of-year giving, allow me to pitch you a non-political organization that I believe is worthy of your dollars.
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
Support rapid response for 1 million immigrants
We need your help to get critical information to the people who need it most.
givebutter.com
December 31, 2024 at 3:39 PM
A few more hours left in the year.
You'd much rather Tamar have a deer hunting rifle than a handgun, from a public safety standpoint.
It's actually not close.
It's actually not close.
I hunt, and I live in Eastern Mass. But we bought a hunting/camping property in New Hampshire because you can't use a rifle in Massachusetts.
It's a sensible regulation in a densely populated state, but it does make it harder to control deer populations.
It's a sensible regulation in a densely populated state, but it does make it harder to control deer populations.
New England’s deer population is skyrocketing. Here’s why that’s particularly a problem in Eastern Massachusetts.
www.bostonglobe.com/2024/12/27/d...
www.bostonglobe.com/2024/12/27/d...
December 30, 2024 at 1:09 PM
You'd much rather Tamar have a deer hunting rifle than a handgun, from a public safety standpoint.
It's actually not close.
It's actually not close.
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
Hi folks, as we approach the end of the year and you consider end-of-year giving, allow me to pitch you a non-political organization that I believe is worthy of your dollars.
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
Support rapid response for 1 million immigrants
We need your help to get critical information to the people who need it most.
givebutter.com
December 19, 2024 at 8:54 PM
Hi folks, as we approach the end of the year and you consider end-of-year giving, allow me to pitch you a non-political organization that I believe is worthy of your dollars.
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
Always think about the incentives of the ones pushing the narratives and bias adjust.
The new GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are an existential threat to diet peddlers, so it's not surprising to find them amplifying any risk from the meds.
There's mostly silence from them on the ancillary benefits, notably kidney & cardiovascular disease.
There's mostly silence from them on the ancillary benefits, notably kidney & cardiovascular disease.
December 26, 2024 at 3:40 PM
Always think about the incentives of the ones pushing the narratives and bias adjust.
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
The new GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are an existential threat to diet peddlers, so it's not surprising to find them amplifying any risk from the meds.
There's mostly silence from them on the ancillary benefits, notably kidney & cardiovascular disease.
There's mostly silence from them on the ancillary benefits, notably kidney & cardiovascular disease.
December 26, 2024 at 1:59 PM
The new GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are an existential threat to diet peddlers, so it's not surprising to find them amplifying any risk from the meds.
There's mostly silence from them on the ancillary benefits, notably kidney & cardiovascular disease.
There's mostly silence from them on the ancillary benefits, notably kidney & cardiovascular disease.
I've been pretty consistent in my editorial view about this. I want a review process that is one round of referee input, then accepted after revision.
If there remain some philosophical/conceptual differences of opinion, I'd rather the reviewers write a comment than iterate behind closed doors.
If there remain some philosophical/conceptual differences of opinion, I'd rather the reviewers write a comment than iterate behind closed doors.
In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus.
As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees.
1/
As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees.
1/
December 24, 2024 at 4:29 PM
I've been pretty consistent in my editorial view about this. I want a review process that is one round of referee input, then accepted after revision.
If there remain some philosophical/conceptual differences of opinion, I'd rather the reviewers write a comment than iterate behind closed doors.
If there remain some philosophical/conceptual differences of opinion, I'd rather the reviewers write a comment than iterate behind closed doors.
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
One more thing: the current equilibrium favors less innovative, incremental papers getting published in the most selective outlets even more than peer review already does.
Those are the ones for which the consensus process works best and tends to converge.
A real loss for innovation.
6/6
Those are the ones for which the consensus process works best and tends to converge.
A real loss for innovation.
6/6
December 24, 2024 at 2:47 PM
One more thing: the current equilibrium favors less innovative, incremental papers getting published in the most selective outlets even more than peer review already does.
Those are the ones for which the consensus process works best and tends to converge.
A real loss for innovation.
6/6
Those are the ones for which the consensus process works best and tends to converge.
A real loss for innovation.
6/6
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
It also makes for a bad equilibrium where publicly disagreeing with a paper (except very mildly and boringly) is infrequent and therefore an extreme signal.
So people don't do it even when they feel published papers are wrong or misleading.
3/
So people don't do it even when they feel published papers are wrong or misleading.
3/
December 24, 2024 at 2:44 PM
It also makes for a bad equilibrium where publicly disagreeing with a paper (except very mildly and boringly) is infrequent and therefore an extreme signal.
So people don't do it even when they feel published papers are wrong or misleading.
3/
So people don't do it even when they feel published papers are wrong or misleading.
3/
"R2 is marginally more negative than I am, but they raise a fundamentally valid point"
Final sentence of R2's recommendation to the editor.
Dynamic soil compaction hammer in slow motion.
December 22, 2024 at 5:58 PM
"R2 is marginally more negative than I am, but they raise a fundamentally valid point"
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
When news reports about scientific papers make causal claims that are not justified by the original study, the mistake often traces to a university press release.
Here, observational data reveals an association. The press release asserts causality.
today.ucsd.edu/story/walkab...
Here, observational data reveals an association. The press release asserts causality.
today.ucsd.edu/story/walkab...
Walkable Neighborhoods Help Adults Socialize, Increase Community
Adults who live in walkable neighborhoods are more likely to socialize and have a stronger sense of community, report researchers at the UC San Diego Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human...
today.ucsd.edu
December 22, 2024 at 5:29 PM
When news reports about scientific papers make causal claims that are not justified by the original study, the mistake often traces to a university press release.
Here, observational data reveals an association. The press release asserts causality.
today.ucsd.edu/story/walkab...
Here, observational data reveals an association. The press release asserts causality.
today.ucsd.edu/story/walkab...
🇺🇸
It still boggles my mind that only 66 years separate these photos.
December 22, 2024 at 12:09 PM
🇺🇸
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
People sometimes make fun of science that sounds stupid and random.
Meanwhile, a study of lizard saliva turned into a peptide medication, which was turned into a diabetes medication, which was turned into a GLP1 weight loss drug, that just became the first therapy every approved for … sleep apnea
Meanwhile, a study of lizard saliva turned into a peptide medication, which was turned into a diabetes medication, which was turned into a GLP1 weight loss drug, that just became the first therapy every approved for … sleep apnea
Breaking News: The FDA approved use of the weight loss drug Zepbound for a common form of sleep apnea. It is the first drug authorized to treat the disorder.
F.D.A. Approves Weight-Loss Drug to Treat Sleep Apnea
Zepbound is the first prescription drug approved specifically to treat the common condition.
www.nytimes.com
December 21, 2024 at 12:41 AM
People sometimes make fun of science that sounds stupid and random.
Meanwhile, a study of lizard saliva turned into a peptide medication, which was turned into a diabetes medication, which was turned into a GLP1 weight loss drug, that just became the first therapy every approved for … sleep apnea
Meanwhile, a study of lizard saliva turned into a peptide medication, which was turned into a diabetes medication, which was turned into a GLP1 weight loss drug, that just became the first therapy every approved for … sleep apnea
Hi folks, as we approach the end of the year and you consider end-of-year giving, allow me to pitch you a non-political organization that I believe is worthy of your dollars.
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
Support rapid response for 1 million immigrants
We need your help to get critical information to the people who need it most.
givebutter.com
December 19, 2024 at 8:54 PM
Hi folks, as we approach the end of the year and you consider end-of-year giving, allow me to pitch you a non-political organization that I believe is worthy of your dollars.
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
ASAP is an organization dedicated to improving legal processes in asylum cases.
givebutter.com/asap2024?ct=...
Given how much interaction this got, I thought you might like to know I bought these and used them this morning in ~30 degree weather. Worked very well!
t.co/ji2Zvl8tgU
t.co/ji2Zvl8tgU
December 17, 2024 at 5:03 PM
Given how much interaction this got, I thought you might like to know I bought these and used them this morning in ~30 degree weather. Worked very well!
t.co/ji2Zvl8tgU
t.co/ji2Zvl8tgU
This place is exactly what I thought it was. The latest outrage is almost comical. A caricature.
Some useful stuff on here, some very nice people too, but the "kind version of twitter" bsky most certainly is not.
Go Bills!
Some useful stuff on here, some very nice people too, but the "kind version of twitter" bsky most certainly is not.
Go Bills!
December 15, 2024 at 4:35 PM
This place is exactly what I thought it was. The latest outrage is almost comical. A caricature.
Some useful stuff on here, some very nice people too, but the "kind version of twitter" bsky most certainly is not.
Go Bills!
Some useful stuff on here, some very nice people too, but the "kind version of twitter" bsky most certainly is not.
Go Bills!
Reposted by Brad Shapiro
The vast majority of people I reach out to repsond quickly and helpfully; but the few that don't are frustrating and enough to make me really appreciate that large majority and that the community functions surprisingly well.
If you receive a ref request and can't finish in the allotted time, you have options:
- Decline the review.
- Ask editor for more time. Then turn in report close to your new proposed deadline.
Don't do:
- Ghost the request
- Agree to request then go months past the due date w/no communication
- Decline the review.
- Ask editor for more time. Then turn in report close to your new proposed deadline.
Don't do:
- Ghost the request
- Agree to request then go months past the due date w/no communication
December 13, 2024 at 9:41 PM
The vast majority of people I reach out to repsond quickly and helpfully; but the few that don't are frustrating and enough to make me really appreciate that large majority and that the community functions surprisingly well.
If you receive a ref request and can't finish in the allotted time, you have options:
- Decline the review.
- Ask editor for more time. Then turn in report close to your new proposed deadline.
Don't do:
- Ghost the request
- Agree to request then go months past the due date w/no communication
- Decline the review.
- Ask editor for more time. Then turn in report close to your new proposed deadline.
Don't do:
- Ghost the request
- Agree to request then go months past the due date w/no communication
December 13, 2024 at 8:16 PM
If you receive a ref request and can't finish in the allotted time, you have options:
- Decline the review.
- Ask editor for more time. Then turn in report close to your new proposed deadline.
Don't do:
- Ghost the request
- Agree to request then go months past the due date w/no communication
- Decline the review.
- Ask editor for more time. Then turn in report close to your new proposed deadline.
Don't do:
- Ghost the request
- Agree to request then go months past the due date w/no communication
All sorts of face palm here.
- using units to deliberately make effect size seem bigger
- miscalculate the effect size by a factor of 10
- call that mistake a "typo"
- say that a 10x smaller effect size doesn't change the policy recommendation(!!!!!)
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/13/h...
- using units to deliberately make effect size seem bigger
- miscalculate the effect size by a factor of 10
- call that mistake a "typo"
- say that a 10x smaller effect size doesn't change the policy recommendation(!!!!!)
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/13/h...
“How a simple math error sparked a panic about black plastic kitchen utensils”: Does it matter when an estimate is off by a factor of 10? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
December 13, 2024 at 5:26 PM
All sorts of face palm here.
- using units to deliberately make effect size seem bigger
- miscalculate the effect size by a factor of 10
- call that mistake a "typo"
- say that a 10x smaller effect size doesn't change the policy recommendation(!!!!!)
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/13/h...
- using units to deliberately make effect size seem bigger
- miscalculate the effect size by a factor of 10
- call that mistake a "typo"
- say that a 10x smaller effect size doesn't change the policy recommendation(!!!!!)
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/13/h...
Quite seriously one of the regular dishes in my rotation (a lentil dish, obviously) was a direct result of one of Tamar's advocacy posts.
It is my tireless advocacy that has made lentils all the rage
December 12, 2024 at 7:21 PM
Quite seriously one of the regular dishes in my rotation (a lentil dish, obviously) was a direct result of one of Tamar's advocacy posts.
Counterpoint: West Virginia had Joe Manchin as a Senator for how many years? Kentucky has a D governor. Kansas has a D governor.
To me it seems like more an issue of finding state pols who are willing to deviate from the national party narrative in order to serve their constituents.
To me it seems like more an issue of finding state pols who are willing to deviate from the national party narrative in order to serve their constituents.
Not easy to solve. Party coalitions are like continental plates--constantly moving but rarely quickly.
If the state Dem Parties in TX, OH, FL, etc knew of a set of political positions or the profile of a candidate that could win their base and swing voters they would have already done it.
If the state Dem Parties in TX, OH, FL, etc knew of a set of political positions or the profile of a candidate that could win their base and swing voters they would have already done it.
New at 538: Because of political sorting and key incumbent losses, Democrats are at a new generational low in the Senate. If all seats were up for election at once, we estimate Dems would need to win the equivalent of a D+6.1 popular vote to win control of the chamber
abcnews.go.com/538/after-20...
abcnews.go.com/538/after-20...
December 12, 2024 at 4:11 PM
Counterpoint: West Virginia had Joe Manchin as a Senator for how many years? Kentucky has a D governor. Kansas has a D governor.
To me it seems like more an issue of finding state pols who are willing to deviate from the national party narrative in order to serve their constituents.
To me it seems like more an issue of finding state pols who are willing to deviate from the national party narrative in order to serve their constituents.