Lu Shi 史律
@bruinlu.bsky.social
Teacher/researcher of health science https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MInNjjYAAAAJ&hl=en
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Breaks With GOP on Health Care youtu.be/zwpnpKX54nQ?... via
@YouTube
#MTG #ACA #Healthcare
@YouTube
#MTG #ACA #Healthcare
October 8, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Breaks With GOP on Health Care youtu.be/zwpnpKX54nQ?... via
@YouTube
#MTG #ACA #Healthcare
@YouTube
#MTG #ACA #Healthcare
2008年前後Medicare住院Part A基金部分面臨資金耗干問題，現在這個問題已經大為緩和，原因有幾個：（1）每一代新退休的美國人都比之前兄姐更加健康，在同年齡階段的醫療費用更低;（2）2010年醫改讓很多人在退休前就有了保險，不必把慢性病拖到65歲之後讓Medicare來支付治療；（3）2010年醫改對medicare支付方式做了非常大的改革，推動總額預付、鼓勵降低重病復發率，削減那種激勵過度醫療的“計件付費”方式；（4）2010年醫改對預防體檢等項目的推動和投入... #Medicare #ACA #Obamacare #MedicaidExpansion #Insurance
October 4, 2025 at 11:09 PM
2008年前後Medicare住院Part A基金部分面臨資金耗干問題，現在這個問題已經大為緩和，原因有幾個：（1）每一代新退休的美國人都比之前兄姐更加健康，在同年齡階段的醫療費用更低;（2）2010年醫改讓很多人在退休前就有了保險，不必把慢性病拖到65歲之後讓Medicare來支付治療；（3）2010年醫改對medicare支付方式做了非常大的改革，推動總額預付、鼓勵降低重病復發率，削減那種激勵過度醫療的“計件付費”方式；（4）2010年醫改對預防體檢等項目的推動和投入... #Medicare #ACA #Obamacare #MedicaidExpansion #Insurance
Happy #RoshHashana! I am signing up for a fundraising run this Fall w/ #Godslovewedeliver, a non-sectarian charity known for their evidence-based medically tailored meals. If you want to wish me a happy bday next month or join Jewish New Year fun w/ love for the needy give.glwd.org/fundraiser/6...
September 22, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Happy #RoshHashana! I am signing up for a fundraising run this Fall w/ #Godslovewedeliver, a non-sectarian charity known for their evidence-based medically tailored meals. If you want to wish me a happy bday next month or join Jewish New Year fun w/ love for the needy give.glwd.org/fundraiser/6...
Additional factors: (1) Dems try to frame this special election as a referendum on Iowa's very unpopular governor. (2) The GOP nominee, who defeated a more moderate candidate in primary, were deleting his own divisive records and shunned at least one public forum event
democrats.org/news/dnc-dep...
democrats.org/news/dnc-dep...
August 26, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Additional factors: (1) Dems try to frame this special election as a referendum on Iowa's very unpopular governor. (2) The GOP nominee, who defeated a more moderate candidate in primary, were deleting his own divisive records and shunned at least one public forum event
democrats.org/news/dnc-dep...
democrats.org/news/dnc-dep...
Civic Engagement in "Quiet" Seasons: there are many things you can do NOW to uphold election integrity in 2026 & 2028. Run for/apply for election officials/officers, voter registration among under-privileged citizens, help eligible immigrants thru naturalization #Elections2025
August 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Civic Engagement in "Quiet" Seasons: there are many things you can do NOW to uphold election integrity in 2026 & 2028. Run for/apply for election officials/officers, voter registration among under-privileged citizens, help eligible immigrants thru naturalization #Elections2025
Thanks for the comment. I attach the corrected graphic rep5ort here. I have some further explanation at www.reddit.com/r/fivethirty... 謝指出。我昨天第一次傳的是初稿，的確發現你說的這種錯誤。我後來在自己的時間綫上發佈了修正過的圖表。幸好最後算出來的平均值和初稿差不多。這裏的R+和D+都是和去年11月總統大選在相應州/選區的票差相比。單個選舉的向紅移動以及向藍移動不容易解釋，反而是按人口加權平均之後的净藍移幅度相對有點參考價值 #electionstat
July 14, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Thanks for the comment. I attach the corrected graphic rep5ort here. I have some further explanation at www.reddit.com/r/fivethirty... 謝指出。我昨天第一次傳的是初稿，的確發現你說的這種錯誤。我後來在自己的時間綫上發佈了修正過的圖表。幸好最後算出來的平均值和初稿差不多。這裏的R+和D+都是和去年11月總統大選在相應州/選區的票差相比。單個選舉的向紅移動以及向藍移動不容易解釋，反而是按人口加權平均之後的净藍移幅度相對有點參考價值 #electionstat
Voters' move toward the blue direction is 11.85 points, dejavu of 2017 (even though the lore on the street is that anti-Trumpers are less motivated this time). If this trend sustains, a flip in the US House can be expected. Senate? It depends on specific candidates/campaign #psephology 和夏老師班門弄斧一下
July 12, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Voters' move toward the blue direction is 11.85 points, dejavu of 2017 (even though the lore on the street is that anti-Trumpers are less motivated this time). If this trend sustains, a flip in the US House can be expected. Senate? It depends on specific candidates/campaign #psephology 和夏老師班門弄斧一下
Methodological note: I will further validate the estimate of a 15-point blue swing here 這個“向自由派方向移動15個百分點”的估算是靠“寫在某個信封背面的計算”back-of-an-envelope calculation算出來的。我會核對表格裏數字的原始出處，再用一些更嚴謹的方法調整。因爲我記得2017年上半年特別選舉的藍移幅度沒有那麽多。自由派花五千萬美元死磕的佐治亞第六選區選舉，較之16年川在這個選區的得票率并未明顯藍移，和今年花錢更多的威州最高法院法官選舉藍移10個點不一樣 #psephology
July 12, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Methodological note: I will further validate the estimate of a 15-point blue swing here 這個“向自由派方向移動15個百分點”的估算是靠“寫在某個信封背面的計算”back-of-an-envelope calculation算出來的。我會核對表格裏數字的原始出處，再用一些更嚴謹的方法調整。因爲我記得2017年上半年特別選舉的藍移幅度沒有那麽多。自由派花五千萬美元死磕的佐治亞第六選區選舉，較之16年川在這個選區的得票率并未明顯藍移，和今年花錢更多的威州最高法院法官選舉藍移10個點不一樣 #psephology
So far, voters' average move toward the liberal direction is 15 points, a dejavu of 2017 (even though we seem to be less motivated). If the trend sustains, a flip in the US House can be expected #Midterm2026, while the Senate will depend more on individual candidates/campaign #psephology 和夏老師班門弄斧一下
July 12, 2025 at 9:16 PM
So far, voters' average move toward the liberal direction is 15 points, a dejavu of 2017 (even though we seem to be less motivated). If the trend sustains, a flip in the US House can be expected #Midterm2026, while the Senate will depend more on individual candidates/campaign #psephology 和夏老師班門弄斧一下
我在2022年上街聲援生育選擇權時，看到一批天主教修女在所謂深紅州街頭高調呼籲生育選擇權。她們並非孤例 #NunsforChoice
May 2, 2025 at 1:08 PM
我在2022年上街聲援生育選擇權時，看到一批天主教修女在所謂深紅州街頭高調呼籲生育選擇權。她們並非孤例 #NunsforChoice
Does Canada have the strongest tradition of Chinese-origin writers in the West? Just a few of a very long list:混血作家水仙花 從民國走來的葉嘉瑩 彩虹中的故事老人崔維新 上海-魁北克生長的法語作家應晨... #arts
April 27, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Does Canada have the strongest tradition of Chinese-origin writers in the West? Just a few of a very long list:混血作家水仙花 從民國走來的葉嘉瑩 彩虹中的故事老人崔維新 上海-魁北克生長的法語作家應晨... #arts
我還真不太相信這“邪惡軸心”的說法。不能因為甲乙丙都是被否定的角色，就說他們肯定是一伙的。45上任以來，華盛頓-北京關稅戰和以及關稅戰加劇的油價跌打擊俄，都在說明“軸心說”暫時只是假說。45与澤連斯基在送別教宗儀式上會後的發言也說明烏克蘭走勢遠未定局 The meeting of Zelensky & 45, which led to the latter's tougher talk to the Kremlin for now, might be another Gift the Pope gave the world (if this signal persists) #Pope
April 27, 2025 at 12:04 PM
我還真不太相信這“邪惡軸心”的說法。不能因為甲乙丙都是被否定的角色，就說他們肯定是一伙的。45上任以來，華盛頓-北京關稅戰和以及關稅戰加劇的油價跌打擊俄，都在說明“軸心說”暫時只是假說。45与澤連斯基在送別教宗儀式上會後的發言也說明烏克蘭走勢遠未定局 The meeting of Zelensky & 45, which led to the latter's tougher talk to the Kremlin for now, might be another Gift the Pope gave the world (if this signal persists) #Pope
這位在路易斯安娜選上過副州長的該州政治世家人物會不會趁該州共和黨內戰參選該州明年的聯邦參議員？ New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu at the Hands-off rally. He ruled out running for DNC chair last Winter, leaving room for a Senate bid next year. This became more plausible as MAGA raised sizable money to primary the GOP incumbent #Election2026
April 23, 2025 at 3:21 PM
這位在路易斯安娜選上過副州長的該州政治世家人物會不會趁該州共和黨內戰參選該州明年的聯邦參議員？ New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu at the Hands-off rally. He ruled out running for DNC chair last Winter, leaving room for a Senate bid next year. This became more plausible as MAGA raised sizable money to primary the GOP incumbent #Election2026
If u r addicted to defeating MAGA like me, I invite u to join me in this Fall's PA's Supreme Court #Elections2025
下半年還有一場影響2028總統選舉的搖擺州最高法院選舉：賓州最高法院的三位自由派大法官的retention elections可供我們手癢族練拳[微笑][拳头]歷史上賓州這種法官連任選舉一般都會勝利連任，但今年馬虎不得
（見圖：賓州馬嘎現在已經動員了）；而且可以爭取贏一把大的，80％ vs20 %那種贏[Fireworks]給國會搖擺區和搖擺州議員一個強烈信號[加油]
下半年還有一場影響2028總統選舉的搖擺州最高法院選舉：賓州最高法院的三位自由派大法官的retention elections可供我們手癢族練拳[微笑][拳头]歷史上賓州這種法官連任選舉一般都會勝利連任，但今年馬虎不得
（見圖：賓州馬嘎現在已經動員了）；而且可以爭取贏一把大的，80％ vs20 %那種贏[Fireworks]給國會搖擺區和搖擺州議員一個強烈信號[加油]
April 6, 2025 at 5:14 PM
If u r addicted to defeating MAGA like me, I invite u to join me in this Fall's PA's Supreme Court #Elections2025
下半年還有一場影響2028總統選舉的搖擺州最高法院選舉：賓州最高法院的三位自由派大法官的retention elections可供我們手癢族練拳[微笑][拳头]歷史上賓州這種法官連任選舉一般都會勝利連任，但今年馬虎不得
（見圖：賓州馬嘎現在已經動員了）；而且可以爭取贏一把大的，80％ vs20 %那種贏[Fireworks]給國會搖擺區和搖擺州議員一個強烈信號[加油]
下半年還有一場影響2028總統選舉的搖擺州最高法院選舉：賓州最高法院的三位自由派大法官的retention elections可供我們手癢族練拳[微笑][拳头]歷史上賓州這種法官連任選舉一般都會勝利連任，但今年馬虎不得
（見圖：賓州馬嘎現在已經動員了）；而且可以爭取贏一把大的，80％ vs20 %那種贏[Fireworks]給國會搖擺區和搖擺州議員一個強烈信號[加油]
沒那麽快，美國的民間外援活動現在依然在進行，如果不是加快成長的話。我前天剛剛參加了一個為海地護師培訓項目募款的年會：美國這個“小政府大社會”的地方，民間的這種活動有自己的節奏，不為堯存，不為紂亡 #foreighaid #Resistance
April 1, 2025 at 6:31 PM
沒那麽快，美國的民間外援活動現在依然在進行，如果不是加快成長的話。我前天剛剛參加了一個為海地護師培訓項目募款的年會：美國這個“小政府大社會”的地方，民間的這種活動有自己的節奏，不為堯存，不為紂亡 #foreighaid #Resistance
Today is the day! Please remind every voter you know in #Wisconsin to vote for #SusanCrawford to defend the election fairness and the independence of the judicial branch in a major swing state #elections2025
April 1, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Today is the day! Please remind every voter you know in #Wisconsin to vote for #SusanCrawford to defend the election fairness and the independence of the judicial branch in a major swing state #elections2025
Similar wisdom from a theistic worldview: 故勿為明日慮、明日之慮、明日慮之、是日之勞、是日足矣（文理和合譯本 馬太福音6:34) #Oneness #Unitarian
March 21, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Similar wisdom from a theistic worldview: 故勿為明日慮、明日之慮、明日慮之、是日之勞、是日足矣（文理和合譯本 馬太福音6:34) #Oneness #Unitarian
For friends in #Wisconsin Guide to vote in the coming April 1st election
March 16, 2025 at 6:43 PM
For friends in #Wisconsin Guide to vote in the coming April 1st election
March 9, 2025 at 3:41 PM
此图对2024 年选举的动向描述较全面。贺锦丽在女性和65歲以上人士中取得進展。這兩個高投票率群體在中期選舉和特别选举中有其优势（因为整体出票少）Chart shows a good view of voting trends in 2024. So #KamalaHarris made gains among women&age65+, both high-turnout blocs to win #midterm 2026 & this April's #Wisconsin supreme court election www.crawfordforwi.com #Election2025
March 3, 2025 at 6:41 PM
此图对2024 年选举的动向描述较全面。贺锦丽在女性和65歲以上人士中取得進展。這兩個高投票率群體在中期選舉和特别选举中有其优势（因为整体出票少）Chart shows a good view of voting trends in 2024. So #KamalaHarris made gains among women&age65+, both high-turnout blocs to win #midterm 2026 & this April's #Wisconsin supreme court election www.crawfordforwi.com #Election2025