Bruce Calvert
@brucettcalvert.bsky.social
Interested in temperature statistics and datasets.
Let's add some nuance here. The direction of impact that AI will have on #climate emissions is disputed: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Green and intelligent: the role of AI in the climate transition - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Green and intelligent: the role of AI in the climate transition
www.nature.com
December 4, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Let's add some nuance here. The direction of impact that AI will have on #climate emissions is disputed: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Reposted by Bruce Calvert
The Kotz et al. paper is also quite relevant as it was ranked the #2 #climate paper of 2024 (www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the...). The Kotz et al. damage function has also been incorporated into REMIND, the world's most used process-based integrated assessment model. While the CMIP7 scenarios...
Analysis: The climate papers most featured in the media in 2024 - Carbon Brief
Thousands of peer-reviewed journal articles were published over 2024, helping shape online discourse around climate change.
www.carbonbrief.org
December 4, 2025 at 6:04 PM
The Kotz et al. paper is also quite relevant as it was ranked the #2 #climate paper of 2024 (www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the...). The Kotz et al. damage function has also been incorporated into REMIND, the world's most used process-based integrated assessment model. While the CMIP7 scenarios...
... will likely use REMIND for some scenarios, similar to previous CMIP cycles, the CMIP7 scenario guidelines instructed IAM groups to neglect climate damages from simulations. Hopefully by the 2030s, damage function issues will be sufficiently resolved for inclusion in CMIP8 scenarios.
December 4, 2025 at 6:04 PM
... will likely use REMIND for some scenarios, similar to previous CMIP cycles, the CMIP7 scenario guidelines instructed IAM groups to neglect climate damages from simulations. Hopefully by the 2030s, damage function issues will be sufficiently resolved for inclusion in CMIP8 scenarios.
The Kotz et al. paper is also quite relevant as it was ranked the #2 #climate paper of 2024 (www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the...). The Kotz et al. damage function has also been incorporated into REMIND, the world's most used process-based integrated assessment model. While the CMIP7 scenarios...
Analysis: The climate papers most featured in the media in 2024 - Carbon Brief
Thousands of peer-reviewed journal articles were published over 2024, helping shape online discourse around climate change.
www.carbonbrief.org
December 4, 2025 at 6:04 PM
The Kotz et al. paper is also quite relevant as it was ranked the #2 #climate paper of 2024 (www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the...). The Kotz et al. damage function has also been incorporated into REMIND, the world's most used process-based integrated assessment model. While the CMIP7 scenarios...
Reposted by Bruce Calvert
I have been following this issue for a few months. The Kotz et al. study unintentionally used faulty Uzbekistan data (e.g. some years with more than 100% gdp growth) which explained most of their results (www.nature.com/articles/s41...). Kotz et al. have since released an unpublished update...
Data anomalies and the economic commitment of climate change - Nature
Nature - Data anomalies and the economic commitment of climate change
www.nature.com
December 4, 2025 at 5:44 AM
I have been following this issue for a few months. The Kotz et al. study unintentionally used faulty Uzbekistan data (e.g. some years with more than 100% gdp growth) which explained most of their results (www.nature.com/articles/s41...). Kotz et al. have since released an unpublished update...
that fixes the faulty Uzbekistan data and includes other improvements (www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...). The issue is quite relevant since the Kotz et al. results were adopted by the Network for Greening the Financial System and thus various central banks and regulatory institutions.
Nature study on economic damages from climate change revised
06.08.2025 - In response to feedback from other scientists, the authors of the paper “The economic commitment of climate change” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have revised...
www.pik-potsdam.de
December 4, 2025 at 5:44 AM
that fixes the faulty Uzbekistan data and includes other improvements (www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...). The issue is quite relevant since the Kotz et al. results were adopted by the Network for Greening the Financial System and thus various central banks and regulatory institutions.
I have been following this issue for a few months. The Kotz et al. study unintentionally used faulty Uzbekistan data (e.g. some years with more than 100% gdp growth) which explained most of their results (www.nature.com/articles/s41...). Kotz et al. have since released an unpublished update...
Data anomalies and the economic commitment of climate change - Nature
Nature - Data anomalies and the economic commitment of climate change
www.nature.com
December 4, 2025 at 5:44 AM
I have been following this issue for a few months. The Kotz et al. study unintentionally used faulty Uzbekistan data (e.g. some years with more than 100% gdp growth) which explained most of their results (www.nature.com/articles/s41...). Kotz et al. have since released an unpublished update...
The form of the argument. You can be wrong due to a incorrect premise rather than due to a fallacious argument.
November 8, 2025 at 12:53 AM
The form of the argument. You can be wrong due to a incorrect premise rather than due to a fallacious argument.
I'm no expert on this or its nuanced tradeoffs. If you have sufficient computational power and data, then wouldn't earlier better?
November 7, 2025 at 1:12 AM
I'm no expert on this or its nuanced tradeoffs. If you have sufficient computational power and data, then wouldn't earlier better?
6 million year old ice? I had no idea such ice was even available.
October 28, 2025 at 11:09 PM
6 million year old ice? I had no idea such ice was even available.
Sorry, I misread the post to mean you wanted forcing data rather than wanting 1840-1869 data. In that case, there is the glosat data. catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/a251962...
Dataset Record: GloSATref.1.0.0.0: An observational record of global gridded near surface air temperature change over land and ocean from 1781
catalogue.ceda.ac.uk
October 22, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Sorry, I misread the post to mean you wanted forcing data rather than wanting 1840-1869 data. In that case, there is the glosat data. catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/a251962...
Also, the DCENT team has recently produced an infilled version called DCENT-I. It has not yet passed peer review, but a preprint is available. eartharxiv.org/repository/v... Links to the dataset are available at Duo Chan's website. duochanatharvard.github.io
DCENT-I: A Globally Infilled Extension of the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature Dataset
eartharxiv.org
October 21, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Also, the DCENT team has recently produced an infilled version called DCENT-I. It has not yet passed peer review, but a preprint is available. eartharxiv.org/repository/v... Links to the dataset are available at Duo Chan's website. duochanatharvard.github.io
Do you mean the forcing data from the recent indicators of climate change report? essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/... The non-ensemble version is available at zenodo. The ensemble version can be recreated using the github code. I also might be able to email you the relevant data.
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenod...
essd.copernicus.org
October 21, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Do you mean the forcing data from the recent indicators of climate change report? essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/... The non-ensemble version is available at zenodo. The ensemble version can be recreated using the github code. I also might be able to email you the relevant data.
After reading the paper thoroughly, I particularly liked the section on uncertainty in sea ice estimates. I was not aware of the recent paper that estimated uncertainty using spatiotemporal correlations lengths of 300km and 5 days, although I did read some predecessor papers. doi.org/10.5194/tc-1...
Estimating the uncertainty of sea-ice area and sea-ice extent from satellite retrievals
Abstract. The net Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) can be estimated from the sea-ice concentration (SIC) by passive microwave measurements from satellites. To be a truly useful metric, for example of the sen...
doi.org
October 8, 2025 at 5:22 PM
After reading the paper thoroughly, I particularly liked the section on uncertainty in sea ice estimates. I was not aware of the recent paper that estimated uncertainty using spatiotemporal correlations lengths of 300km and 5 days, although I did read some predecessor papers. doi.org/10.5194/tc-1...
... population projections are countered by assumptions of very limited aerosol policies. See figure 1 of the SSP3 paper: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
This study quantifies the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium). SSP3…
www.sciencedirect.com
October 3, 2025 at 7:11 PM
... population projections are countered by assumptions of very limited aerosol policies. See figure 1 of the SSP3 paper: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Thanks for clarifying @climateofgavin.bsky.social & @michaelemann.bsky.social. For this particular criticism by Piekle, I suggest that a more direct response could be to point out that AIM projects the same 7.0 W/m^2 by 2100 for no policy scenarios under both SSP2 & SSP3. The above average...
October 3, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Thanks for clarifying @climateofgavin.bsky.social & @michaelemann.bsky.social. For this particular criticism by Piekle, I suggest that a more direct response could be to point out that AIM projects the same 7.0 W/m^2 by 2100 for no policy scenarios under both SSP2 & SSP3. The above average...
Isn't the issue under disagreement the appropriateness of SSP3-7.0 rather than about climate science? Such as the appropriateness of the assumptions used by the AIM integrated assessment model to produce SSP3-7.0? Piekle mention population projections specifically.
October 3, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Isn't the issue under disagreement the appropriateness of SSP3-7.0 rather than about climate science? Such as the appropriateness of the assumptions used by the AIM integrated assessment model to produce SSP3-7.0? Piekle mention population projections specifically.
... sailors of potential sea ice rather than be representative of sea ice conditions, but was treated as representative in HadISST2. An upcoming community science paper on 1.5°C of warming, which might be submitted in the next few weeks, will discuss this issue briefly.
October 2, 2025 at 8:10 PM
... sailors of potential sea ice rather than be representative of sea ice conditions, but was treated as representative in HadISST2. An upcoming community science paper on 1.5°C of warming, which might be submitted in the next few weeks, will discuss this issue briefly.
A year ago, I was looking into the issue because I was curious about the reliability of HadISST2, which is used in most instrumental temperature datasets and ERA5. The presatellite Antarctic estimates are based on two atlases, one German and one Soviet. The German atlas was intended to warn...
October 2, 2025 at 8:10 PM
A year ago, I was looking into the issue because I was curious about the reliability of HadISST2, which is used in most instrumental temperature datasets and ERA5. The presatellite Antarctic estimates are based on two atlases, one German and one Soviet. The German atlas was intended to warn...
Among other things, I liked the attempt to use multiple historic sea ice datasets and to acknowledge differences between HadISST2 and recent reconstructions. The large decrease in Antarctic sea ice in HadISST2 is largely due to misinterpreting a Nazi-era sea ice Atlas.
October 2, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Among other things, I liked the attempt to use multiple historic sea ice datasets and to acknowledge differences between HadISST2 and recent reconstructions. The large decrease in Antarctic sea ice in HadISST2 is largely due to misinterpreting a Nazi-era sea ice Atlas.
On a related issue, it is disappointing that this work on the costs of #climatechange was not mentioned by the NAS did not mention this work in their recent report. It would have been very relevant. nap.nationalacademies.org/read/29239/c...
Read "Effects of Human-Caused Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate, Health, and Welfare" at NAP.edu
Read chapter Front Matter: The scientific community has been studying the question of how human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the cli...
nap.nationalacademies.org
September 24, 2025 at 9:52 PM
On a related issue, it is disappointing that this work on the costs of #climatechange was not mentioned by the NAS did not mention this work in their recent report. It would have been very relevant. nap.nationalacademies.org/read/29239/c...
... If one were to include sensitivity tests over all possible uniform priors for monotonic transformations of ECS (e.g., ln(ECS), sqrt(ECS), ECS^3), then the resulting uncertainty range would be excessively large. Using a single broad well-justified prior could help avoid this arbitrariness.
September 20, 2025 at 8:49 PM
... If one were to include sensitivity tests over all possible uniform priors for monotonic transformations of ECS (e.g., ln(ECS), sqrt(ECS), ECS^3), then the resulting uncertainty range would be excessively large. Using a single broad well-justified prior could help avoid this arbitrariness.
Hi Cristi, I enjoyed reading your 2020 paper. It is true that the choice of prior wasn't a big issue in Sherwood et al. and the baseline specification did not use a problematic prior. Although the expansion of the ECS range based on prior sensitivity tests was a bit arbitrary...
September 20, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Hi Cristi, I enjoyed reading your 2020 paper. It is true that the choice of prior wasn't a big issue in Sherwood et al. and the baseline specification did not use a problematic prior. Although the expansion of the ECS range based on prior sensitivity tests was a bit arbitrary...