bnschwartz
@bnschwartz.bsky.social
I try to share some ideas but unfortunately they come with typos.
How to undermine the system and the guardrails...
December 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM
How to undermine the system and the guardrails...
People are spending and repaying their credit card balances, but some softness can be seen in the current data.
December 15, 2025 at 7:03 PM
People are spending and repaying their credit card balances, but some softness can be seen in the current data.
Data from Expedia -- Something I think that is interesting.
December 4, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Data from Expedia -- Something I think that is interesting.
something to think about...
November 20, 2025 at 5:46 PM
something to think about...
October-25 Master Trust Scorecard
November 18, 2025 at 4:44 PM
October-25 Master Trust Scorecard
Someone is holding the bag - Will be interesting to learn who one of these days (funds, consumers, US banks via lending to NDFIs, Japanese banks).
November 15, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Someone is holding the bag - Will be interesting to learn who one of these days (funds, consumers, US banks via lending to NDFIs, Japanese banks).
Thought this was interesting data -- link to the paper was provided by Carl Tannenbaum @northerntrust.bsky.social
November 12, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Thought this was interesting data -- link to the paper was provided by Carl Tannenbaum @northerntrust.bsky.social
per Bloomberg: Walmart reportedly takes in about 25% of SNAP shoppers' grocery dollars annually, with Kroger and Albertsons at 8% and 6%. -- The graph below is from Barclays Research...You can actually see when SNAP changes were announced.
October 31, 2025 at 11:00 PM
per Bloomberg: Walmart reportedly takes in about 25% of SNAP shoppers' grocery dollars annually, with Kroger and Albertsons at 8% and 6%. -- The graph below is from Barclays Research...You can actually see when SNAP changes were announced.
I just think this map is intresting - I wonder if this impacts retirment migration (and local housing market prices)....mainly speakign about the expected/current ACA cuts?
October 20, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I just think this map is intresting - I wonder if this impacts retirment migration (and local housing market prices)....mainly speakign about the expected/current ACA cuts?
People are paying their credit card balances, but we are starting to see a little bit of payment rate softness.
October 15, 2025 at 4:00 PM
People are paying their credit card balances, but we are starting to see a little bit of payment rate softness.
I guess they do understand shit…
October 9, 2025 at 9:45 PM
I guess they do understand shit…
Random thought: Why current housing data is funky: soft/shit job market, affordability low (esp at $1MM+), and the refi-activity is dead until rates fall to ~4.5% (require ~75bps before refi to be breakeven on 30Y).
October 8, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Random thought: Why current housing data is funky: soft/shit job market, affordability low (esp at $1MM+), and the refi-activity is dead until rates fall to ~4.5% (require ~75bps before refi to be breakeven on 30Y).
Yes, I totally understand why you would advocate for 200bps in cuts in the next 12-months s/
September 26, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Yes, I totally understand why you would advocate for 200bps in cuts in the next 12-months s/
Data from Cox -- Not hard to understand why lease rates are going up.
September 16, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Data from Cox -- Not hard to understand why lease rates are going up.
Aug-25 Master Trust data...
September 16, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Aug-25 Master Trust data...
From the Experian Small Business Index - Thought this was Intresting.
September 12, 2025 at 5:49 PM
From the Experian Small Business Index - Thought this was Intresting.
This is insane...
September 12, 2025 at 12:30 AM
This is insane...
If the market was healthy (or had confidence), we would see the blue section/area a lot bigger...
September 9, 2025 at 5:01 PM
If the market was healthy (or had confidence), we would see the blue section/area a lot bigger...
Thought this was an interesting...
August 29, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Thought this was an interesting...
I don’t understand how the markets just don’t care - this type of behavior is insane.
August 26, 2025 at 12:25 AM
I don’t understand how the markets just don’t care - this type of behavior is insane.
So we are going to try to "evict" roughly ~15% of the US population...My brain is going to crash like an Apple IIe when playing Oregon Trail.
August 22, 2025 at 12:51 PM
So we are going to try to "evict" roughly ~15% of the US population...My brain is going to crash like an Apple IIe when playing Oregon Trail.
What is interesting to me about this graph is the amount of debt that individuals over the age of 60 hold...I honestly believe this number will only grow as the late baby boomers retire (financially not as well off as the early boomers).
August 5, 2025 at 5:04 PM
What is interesting to me about this graph is the amount of debt that individuals over the age of 60 hold...I honestly believe this number will only grow as the late baby boomers retire (financially not as well off as the early boomers).
It appears that big banks and small banks are not moving in the same direction. I'm not sure if this desire to lend less (preserve or control capital) or if the small banks are not following the market trend.
August 4, 2025 at 11:48 PM
It appears that big banks and small banks are not moving in the same direction. I'm not sure if this desire to lend less (preserve or control capital) or if the small banks are not following the market trend.
Something to think about - As the TV pollutes our thoughts/processes.
August 1, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Something to think about - As the TV pollutes our thoughts/processes.